Akashic

county

Manassas city, VA

Contests in this Place (46 available)

President14 · 1972–2024 · 3 mapped

▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1972–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1972 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1972–2024.

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

Salvadoran15.8%2.1%0.7%

Mexican8.8%2.4%11.3%

Honduran7.2%0.7%0.3%

Guatemalan2.6%0.7%0.5%

Puerto Rican2.1%1.4%1.8%

Bolivian1.4%0.4%—

Peruvian1.1%0.5%—

Dominican0.7%—0.7%

German8.2%10.1%12.5%

Irish7.3%9.1%9.4%

English7.1%12.0%9.5%

American2.7%8.4%5.3%

Italian2.6%3.9%4.8%

Scottish1.6%1.9%1.3%

French1.4%1.3%1.6%

Polish1.2%1.6%2.2%

African American†8.6%15.6%9.9%

African1.3%0.9%0.5%

Jamaican0.8%0.3%0.4%

Sierra Leonean0.4%——

South African0.2%——

West Indian0.2%——

Vietnamese1.3%0.7%0.6%

Filipino1.1%0.9%0.9%

Nepalese0.8%——

Korean0.7%0.8%0.4%

Asian Indian0.6%1.8%1.4%

Chinese0.3%0.8%1.3%

Japanese0.3%—0.2%

Pakistani0.2%0.5%—

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Median age	34.8	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	8.5%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	10.6%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$113,590	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	7.7%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	32.7%	42.3%	35.6%

Housing and tenure

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Owner-occupied homes	71.5%	67.3%	65.2%
Renter-occupied homes	28.5%	32.7%	34.8%
Median home value	$449,900	$383,700	$332,700
Median gross rent (monthly)	$1,850	$1,579	$1,413
Renters paying 30%+ of income	52.2%	48.5%	51.1%
Vacant housing units	2.1%	8.7%	10.1%

Getting to work

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Mean commute	32.1 min	27.3 min	26.4 min
Commutes 60 minutes or more	15.3%	8.9%	8.6%
Drives alone to work	68.8%	67.6%	68.8%
Takes public transit	2.2%	2.3%	3.2%
Works from home	12.5%	18.3%	15.1%

Languages at home

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	50.0%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	39.2%	7.9%	13.6%
Other Indo-European	2.7%	2.6%	2.0%
Vietnamese	1.3%	0.6%	0.5%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)	1.1%	0.6%	0.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Catholic	51.9%	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	6.9%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	13.7%	54.3%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	17.6%	8.4%	5.2%

Origins and service

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Foreign-born residents	32.4%	13.1%	14.1%
Naturalized citizens	14.7%	7.4%	7.4%
Not U.S. citizens	17.8%	5.7%	6.8%
Veterans (18+)	7.2%	9.4%	6.2%
Income inequality (Gini)	0.406	0.471	0.483

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations · American Community Survey 2024 — housing and tenure (B25003, B25002, B25077, B25064, B25070), commuting (B08013, B08303, B08301), origins and service (B05002, B21001, B19083).

President results by year

2024 turnout 65.1% of 24,937 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic56.2%9,048TrumpRepublican41.4%6,670SteinIndependent1.0%164

D+14.8

Lead: 2,378
Total: 16,100
vs nation: D+16.2
Turnout: 65.1%

BidenDemocratic61.0%10,356TrumpRepublican36.9%6,256JorgensenLibertarian1.7%280

D+24.2

Lead: 4,100
Total: 16,968
vs nation: D+19.7
Turnout: 70.5%

ClintonDemocratic54.7%8,423TrumpRepublican38.6%5,953JohnsonLibertarian3.2%488

D+16.0

Lead: 2,470
Total: 15,411
vs nation: D+13.9
Turnout: 66.1%

ObamaDemocratic55.8%8,478RomneyRepublican42.5%6,463OtherAll other candidates1.7%259

D+13.3

Lead: 2,015
Total: 15,200
vs nation: D+9.4
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic55.2%7,518McCainRepublican43.8%5,975OtherAll other candidates1.0%134

D+11.3

Lead: 1,543
Total: 13,627
vs nation: D+4.1
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic43.1%5,562BushRepublican56.2%7,257OtherAll other candidates0.7%84

R+13.1

Lead: 1,695
Total: 12,903
vs nation: R+10.7
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic42.4%5,262BushRepublican54.4%6,752NaderGreen1.9%230

R+12.0

Lead: 1,490
Total: 12,410
vs nation: R+12.5
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic39.9%4,378DoleRepublican52.9%5,799PerotReform6.1%670

R+13.0

Lead: 1,421
Total: 10,960
vs nation: R+21.5
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+14.8MIT Election Lab
Population: 42,9762024 5-year
Population density: 4,385 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 9.8 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $113,5902024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 33.3%2024 5-year
Black: 11.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 43.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+24.2 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+43.1 in 1984MIT Election Lab
Most similar: San Benito County, CA · twin score 89.6

Participation

Turnout and midterm durability

Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.

2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited

2024 turnout: 65.1%16,238 participants ÷ 24,937 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +27.3 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state: +3.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026: 37.8%–45.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Participation by cycle

Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016

53.8%

43.2%

Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.

Cycle	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Series	Quality
	16,238	24,937 ± 864	65.1%	Audited	A/A
2022Mid	10,952	25,327 ± 764	43.2%	Audited	A/A
	17,143	24,300 ± 649	70.5%	Audited	A/A
2018Mid	13,026	24,206 ± 620	53.8%	Audited	A/A
	15,460	23,390 ± 665	66.1%	Audited	A/A
	15,200	20,639	73.6%	Derived	—
	13,627	19,752	69.0%	Derived	—
	12,903	18,865 extrapolated	68.4%	Derived	—

Sources and methods

Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.

2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.

Interactive election map

One map. Every available contest.

The map and local result cover Manassas city only. The complete district District 10 result is shown below for comparison.

YearOfficeParty / contestMap detailShowing

Manassas city result

0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes

Anthony L. Suttles0—

Dave T. Beckwith0—

Julie Anna Perry0—

M. Sam Wong0—

District District 10 result

Loading the complete contest result…

Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 12 precincts

Precinct data

Results by precinct

12 precincts · 16,100 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Manassas city precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -003 - METZ003 - METZ	1,639	1,288	79	3,006	54.5%	42.8%	D+11.7
Precinct -002 - WEEMS002 - WEEMS	1,515	1,202	76	2,793	54.2%	43.0%	D+11.2
Precinct -004 - HAYDON004 - HAYDON	1,507	1,092	54	2,653	56.8%	41.2%	D+15.6
Precinct -001 - DEAN001 - DEAN	1,627	968	56	2,651	61.4%	36.5%	D+24.9
Precinct -005 - BALDWIN005 - BALDWIN	1,481	1,050	50	2,581	57.4%	40.7%	D+16.7
Precinct -006 - ROUND006 - ROUND	1,279	1,070	67	2,416	52.9%	44.3%	D+8.7
Baldwin51683000005	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Dean51683000001	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Haydon51683000004	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Metz51683000003	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Round51683000006	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Weems51683000002	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Party record book

Manassas city, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

1972–2024 · 14 presidential cycles

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

61.0%

10,356 votes · D+24.2

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 56.2%

Republican

Ronald Reagan1984

71.3%

4,613 votes · R+43.1

Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1988 · 68.6%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

10,356votes

61.0% of the vote · D+24.2

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 9,048 votes

Republican

George W. Bush2004

7,257votes

56.2% of the vote · R+13.1

Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · 6,752 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

+19.7pts D vs U.S.

Place D+24.2 · U.S. D+4.5

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +16.2 pts

Republican

George H. W. Bush1988

+30.4pts R vs U.S.

Place R+38.1 · U.S. R+7.7

Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · +24.9 pts

current representation

Current officeholders

DMark WarnerU.S. Senate-0.21

DTim KaineU.S. Senate-0.23

DSuhas SubramanyamU.S. House · VA-10-0.24

DDanica RoemState Senate · 30

Seats representing Manassas city, VA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.

U.S. House elections · 3 House

Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	D	55.8%8,883	44.2%7,044	15,927
2020	D	66.6%7,895	33.4%3,962	11,857
2018	D	60.4%7,794	39.6%5,118	12,912

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Manassas city, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	23,181
2018	22,099
2020	23,490
2022	23,663
2024	24,692

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

−730 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net −7,106 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $64,162 in average income, against $77,387 for residents who stayed — 17% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean D+24.3 on average — 9.5 points more Democratic-leaning than Manassas city, VA itself (D+14.8).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Prince William County, VA687D+17.9
Fairfax County, VA357D+34.7
Manassas Park city, VA106D+19.9
Loudoun County, VA102D+16.2
Fauquier County, VA53R+21.5
Prince George's County, MD36D+74.8

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Prince William County, VA709
Fairfax County, VA266
Manassas Park city, VA130
Fauquier County, VA92
Loudoun County, VA90
Stafford County, VA58

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Manassas city, VA in Manassas city, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+247
2012	+414
2013	+115
2014	−703
2015	−490
2016	−938
2017	−774
2018	−709
2019	−601
2021	−489
2022	−1,002
2023	−719
2024	−727
2025	−730

Manassas City, once a competitive Northern Virginia locality, has shifted toward double-digit Democratic margins as its Latino and immigrant populations grew substantially over the past two decades, making it a case study in suburban demographic transition.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 24.2 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 43.1 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 9.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.8 points.

A population of 42,976, a 33% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $113,590 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of San Benito County and Sandoval County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

San Benito County

California

89.6twin score

% Catholic2016–2024 trajectory≠ 2000 margin

Sandoval County

New Mexico

88.1twin score

2020–2024 trajectory% Latino12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated

Winchester city

Virginia

84.9twin score

2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ median income

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Manassas city, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51683/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

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Cities & towns in Manassas city

Manassas

D+15

43K residents

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Manassas city, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Manassas city, Virginia voted Democratic by 14.8 points (D+14.8), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 16,100 votes cast, 9,048 went Democratic and 6,670 went Republican.

When did Manassas city, Virginia last vote Republican?

The most recent presidential election in which Manassas city, Virginia voted Republican was 2004.

How many people live in Manassas city, Virginia?

Manassas city, Virginia has a population of 42,976 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Manassas city, Virginia?

Median household income in Manassas city, Virginia is $113,590 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Manassas city, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Manassas city, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.

Akashic

county

Manassas city, VA

Contests in this Place (46 available)

President14 · 1972–2024 · 3 mapped

▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1972–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1972 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1972–2024.

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

Salvadoran15.8%2.1%0.7%

Mexican8.8%2.4%11.3%

Honduran7.2%0.7%0.3%

Guatemalan2.6%0.7%0.5%

Puerto Rican2.1%1.4%1.8%

Bolivian1.4%0.4%—

Peruvian1.1%0.5%—

Dominican0.7%—0.7%

German8.2%10.1%12.5%

Irish7.3%9.1%9.4%

English7.1%12.0%9.5%

American2.7%8.4%5.3%

Italian2.6%3.9%4.8%

Scottish1.6%1.9%1.3%

French1.4%1.3%1.6%

Polish1.2%1.6%2.2%

African American†8.6%15.6%9.9%

African1.3%0.9%0.5%

Jamaican0.8%0.3%0.4%

Sierra Leonean0.4%——

South African0.2%——

West Indian0.2%——

Vietnamese1.3%0.7%0.6%

Filipino1.1%0.9%0.9%

Nepalese0.8%——

Korean0.7%0.8%0.4%

Asian Indian0.6%1.8%1.4%

Chinese0.3%0.8%1.3%

Japanese0.3%—0.2%

Pakistani0.2%0.5%—

Age and life stage

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Median age	34.8	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	8.5%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	10.6%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$113,590	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	7.7%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	32.7%	42.3%	35.6%

Housing and tenure

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Owner-occupied homes	71.5%	67.3%	65.2%
Renter-occupied homes	28.5%	32.7%	34.8%
Median home value	$449,900	$383,700	$332,700
Median gross rent (monthly)	$1,850	$1,579	$1,413
Renters paying 30%+ of income	52.2%	48.5%	51.1%
Vacant housing units	2.1%	8.7%	10.1%

Getting to work

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Mean commute	32.1 min	27.3 min	26.4 min
Commutes 60 minutes or more	15.3%	8.9%	8.6%
Drives alone to work	68.8%	67.6%	68.8%
Takes public transit	2.2%	2.3%	3.2%
Works from home	12.5%	18.3%	15.1%

Languages at home

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	50.0%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	39.2%	7.9%	13.6%
Other Indo-European	2.7%	2.6%	2.0%
Vietnamese	1.3%	0.6%	0.5%
Tagalog (incl. Filipino)	1.1%	0.6%	0.6%

Religious landscape

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Catholic	51.9%	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	6.9%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	13.7%	54.3%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	17.6%	8.4%	5.2%

Origins and service

Measure	Manassas city	Virginia	United States
Foreign-born residents	32.4%	13.1%	14.1%
Naturalized citizens	14.7%	7.4%	7.4%
Not U.S. citizens	17.8%	5.7%	6.8%
Veterans (18+)	7.2%	9.4%	6.2%
Income inequality (Gini)	0.406	0.471	0.483

President results by year

2024 turnout 65.1% of 24,937 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic56.2%9,048TrumpRepublican41.4%6,670SteinIndependent1.0%164

D+14.8

Lead: 2,378
Total: 16,100
vs nation: D+16.2
Turnout: 65.1%

BidenDemocratic61.0%10,356TrumpRepublican36.9%6,256JorgensenLibertarian1.7%280

D+24.2

Lead: 4,100
Total: 16,968
vs nation: D+19.7
Turnout: 70.5%

ClintonDemocratic54.7%8,423TrumpRepublican38.6%5,953JohnsonLibertarian3.2%488

D+16.0

Lead: 2,470
Total: 15,411
vs nation: D+13.9
Turnout: 66.1%

ObamaDemocratic55.8%8,478RomneyRepublican42.5%6,463OtherAll other candidates1.7%259

D+13.3

Lead: 2,015
Total: 15,200
vs nation: D+9.4
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic55.2%7,518McCainRepublican43.8%5,975OtherAll other candidates1.0%134

D+11.3

Lead: 1,543
Total: 13,627
vs nation: D+4.1
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic43.1%5,562BushRepublican56.2%7,257OtherAll other candidates0.7%84

R+13.1

Lead: 1,695
Total: 12,903
vs nation: R+10.7
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic42.4%5,262BushRepublican54.4%6,752NaderGreen1.9%230

R+12.0

Lead: 1,490
Total: 12,410
vs nation: R+12.5
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic39.9%4,378DoleRepublican52.9%5,799PerotReform6.1%670

R+13.0

Lead: 1,421
Total: 10,960
vs nation: R+21.5
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+14.8MIT Election Lab
Population: 42,9762024 5-year
Population density: 4,385 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 9.8 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $113,5902024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 33.3%2024 5-year
Black: 11.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 43.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+24.2 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+43.1 in 1984MIT Election Lab
Most similar: San Benito County, CA · twin score 89.6

Participation

Turnout and midterm durability

2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited

2024 turnout: 65.1%16,238 participants ÷ 24,937 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +27.3 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state: +3.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026: 37.8%–45.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Participation by cycle

Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016

53.8%

43.2%

Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.

Cycle	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Series	Quality
	16,238	24,937 ± 864	65.1%	Audited	A/A
2022Mid	10,952	25,327 ± 764	43.2%	Audited	A/A
	17,143	24,300 ± 649	70.5%	Audited	A/A
2018Mid	13,026	24,206 ± 620	53.8%	Audited	A/A
	15,460	23,390 ± 665	66.1%	Audited	A/A
	15,200	20,639	73.6%	Derived	—
	13,627	19,752	69.0%	Derived	—
	12,903	18,865 extrapolated	68.4%	Derived	—

Sources and methods

2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.

Interactive election map

One map. Every available contest.

The map and local result cover Manassas city only. The complete district District 10 result is shown below for comparison.

YearOfficeParty / contestMap detailShowing

Manassas city result

0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes

Anthony L. Suttles0—

Dave T. Beckwith0—

Julie Anna Perry0—

M. Sam Wong0—

District District 10 result

Loading the complete contest result…

Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 12 precincts

Precinct data

Results by precinct

12 precincts · 16,100 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Manassas city precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -003 - METZ003 - METZ	1,639	1,288	79	3,006	54.5%	42.8%	D+11.7
Precinct -002 - WEEMS002 - WEEMS	1,515	1,202	76	2,793	54.2%	43.0%	D+11.2
Precinct -004 - HAYDON004 - HAYDON	1,507	1,092	54	2,653	56.8%	41.2%	D+15.6
Precinct -001 - DEAN001 - DEAN	1,627	968	56	2,651	61.4%	36.5%	D+24.9
Precinct -005 - BALDWIN005 - BALDWIN	1,481	1,050	50	2,581	57.4%	40.7%	D+16.7
Precinct -006 - ROUND006 - ROUND	1,279	1,070	67	2,416	52.9%	44.3%	D+8.7
Baldwin51683000005	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Dean51683000001	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Haydon51683000004	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Metz51683000003	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Round51683000006	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Weems51683000002	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Party record book

Manassas city, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

1972–2024 · 14 presidential cycles

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

61.0%

10,356 votes · D+24.2

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 56.2%

Republican

Ronald Reagan1984

71.3%

4,613 votes · R+43.1

Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1988 · 68.6%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

10,356votes

61.0% of the vote · D+24.2

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 9,048 votes

Republican

George W. Bush2004

7,257votes

56.2% of the vote · R+13.1

Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · 6,752 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

+19.7pts D vs U.S.

Place D+24.2 · U.S. D+4.5

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +16.2 pts

Republican

George H. W. Bush1988

+30.4pts R vs U.S.

Place R+38.1 · U.S. R+7.7

Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · +24.9 pts

current representation

Current officeholders

DMark WarnerU.S. Senate-0.21

DTim KaineU.S. Senate-0.23

DSuhas SubramanyamU.S. House · VA-10-0.24

DDanica RoemState Senate · 30

U.S. House elections · 3 House

Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	D	55.8%8,883	44.2%7,044	15,927
2020	D	66.6%7,895	33.4%3,962	11,857
2018	D	60.4%7,794	39.6%5,118	12,912

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Manassas city, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	23,181
2018	22,099
2020	23,490
2022	23,663
2024	24,692

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

−730 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net −7,106 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $64,162 in average income, against $77,387 for residents who stayed — 17% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean D+24.3 on average — 9.5 points more Democratic-leaning than Manassas city, VA itself (D+14.8).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Prince William County, VA687D+17.9
Fairfax County, VA357D+34.7
Manassas Park city, VA106D+19.9
Loudoun County, VA102D+16.2
Fauquier County, VA53R+21.5
Prince George's County, MD36D+74.8

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Prince William County, VA709
Fairfax County, VA266
Manassas Park city, VA130
Fauquier County, VA92
Loudoun County, VA90
Stafford County, VA58

Domestic migration in Manassas city, VA in Manassas city, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+247
2012	+414
2013	+115
2014	−703
2015	−490
2016	−938
2017	−774
2018	−709
2019	−601
2021	−489
2022	−1,002
2023	−719
2024	−727
2025	−730

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

San Benito County

California

89.6twin score

% Catholic2016–2024 trajectory≠ 2000 margin

Sandoval County

New Mexico

88.1twin score

2020–2024 trajectory% Latino12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated

Winchester city

Virginia

84.9twin score

2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ median income

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Manassas city, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51683/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Manassas city

Manassas

D+15

43K residents

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Manassas city, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Manassas city, Virginia voted Democratic by 14.8 points (D+14.8), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 16,100 votes cast, 9,048 went Democratic and 6,670 went Republican.

When did Manassas city, Virginia last vote Republican?

The most recent presidential election in which Manassas city, Virginia voted Republican was 2004.

How many people live in Manassas city, Virginia?

Manassas city, Virginia has a population of 42,976 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Manassas city, Virginia?

Median household income in Manassas city, Virginia is $113,590 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Manassas city, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Manassas city, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.

President margin by year

President results by year

Key facts

Manassas city result

District District 10 result

Results by precinct

Party record book

Highest vote share

Most votes

Best relative to the U.S.

Current officeholders

U.S. House

Registered voters

Who moves in and out

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions

President margin by year

President results by year

Key facts

Manassas city result

District District 10 result

Results by precinct

Party record book

Highest vote share

Most votes

Best relative to the U.S.

Current officeholders

U.S. House

Registered voters

Who moves in and out

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions