Manassas city, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 16,100 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -003 - METZ003 - METZ | 1,639 | 1,288 | 79 | 3,006 | 54.5% | 42.8% | D+11.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -002 - WEEMS002 - WEEMS | 1,515 | 1,202 | 76 | 2,793 | 54.2% | 43.0% | D+11.2 |
| Precinct -004 - HAYDON004 - HAYDON | 1,507 | 1,092 | 54 | 2,653 | 56.8% | 41.2% | D+15.6 |
| Precinct -001 - DEAN001 - DEAN | 1,627 | 968 | 56 | 2,651 | 61.4% | 36.5% | D+24.9 |
| Precinct -005 - BALDWIN005 - BALDWIN | 1,481 | 1,050 | 50 | 2,581 | 57.4% | 40.7% | D+16.7 |
| Precinct -006 - ROUND006 - ROUND | 1,279 | 1,070 | 67 | 2,416 | 52.9% | 44.3% | D+8.7 |
| Baldwin51683000005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Dean51683000001 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Haydon51683000004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Metz51683000003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Round51683000006 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Weems51683000002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1972–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1972 | −31.4% |
| 1976 | −9.3% |
| 1980 | −29.2% |
| 1984 | −43.1% |
| 1988 | −38.1% |
| 1992 | −16.2% |
| 1996 | −13.0% |
| 2000 | −12.0% |
| 2004 | −13.1% |
| 2008 | +11.3% |
| 2012 | +13.3% |
| 2016 | +16.0% |
| 2020 | +24.2% |
| 2024 | +14.8% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 23,181 |
| 2018 | 22,099 |
| 2020 | 23,490 |
| 2022 | 23,663 |
| 2024 | 24,692 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−730 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −7,106 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $64,162 in average income, against $77,387 for residents who stayed — 17% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+24.3 on average — 9.5 points more Democratic-leaning than Manassas city, VA itself (D+14.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Prince William County, VA687D+17.9
- Fairfax County, VA357D+34.7
- Manassas Park city, VA106D+19.9
- Loudoun County, VA102D+16.2
- Fauquier County, VA53R+21.5
- Prince George's County, MD36D+74.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Prince William County, VA709
- Fairfax County, VA266
- Manassas Park city, VA130
- Fauquier County, VA92
- Loudoun County, VA90
- Stafford County, VA58
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +247 |
| 2012 | +414 |
| 2013 | +115 |
| 2014 | −703 |
| 2015 | −490 |
| 2016 | −938 |
| 2017 | −774 |
| 2018 | −709 |
| 2019 | −601 |
| 2021 | −489 |
| 2022 | −1,002 |
| 2023 | −719 |
| 2024 | −727 |
| 2025 | −730 |
Manassas City, once a competitive Northern Virginia locality, has shifted toward double-digit Democratic margins as its Latino and immigrant populations grew substantially over the past two decades, making it a case study in suburban demographic transition.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 24.2 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 43.1 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 9.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.8 points.
A population of 42,976, a 33% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $113,590 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of San Benito County and Sandoval County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Manassas city, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51683/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.