Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic71.3%2,188TrumpRepublican25.7%789OtherAll other candidates2.9%90
D+45.6
Lead
1,399
Total
3,067
vs nation
D+47.1
BidenDemocratic72.3%2,378TrumpRepublican25.6%840OtherAll other candidates2.1%69
D+46.8
Lead
1,538
Total
3,287
vs nation
D+42.3
ClintonDemocratic68.0%1,938TrumpRepublican25.5%728OtherAll other candidates6.5%184
D+42.5
Lead
1,210
Total
2,850
vs nation
D+40.4
ObamaDemocratic65.9%1,746RomneyRepublican31.5%836OtherAll other candidates2.6%69
D+34.3
Lead
910
Total
2,651
vs nation
D+30.5
ObamaDemocratic72.4%2,034McCainRepublican27.5%772OtherAll other candidates0.2%5
D+44.9
Lead
1,262
Total
2,811
vs nation
D+37.6
KerryDemocratic64.6%1,798BushRepublican34.9%972OtherAll other candidates0.5%15
D+29.7
Lead
826
Total
2,785
vs nation
D+32.1
ClintonDemocratic49.6%1,340DoleRepublican38.1%1,029OtherAll other candidates12.4%334
D+11.5
Lead
311
Total
2,703
vs nation
D+3.0
ClintonDemocratic48.8%1,406BushRepublican25.7%742OtherAll other candidates25.5%736
D+23.0
Lead
664
Total
2,884
vs nation
D+17.5
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
D+45.6MIT Election Lab
Population
4,7852024 5-year
Population density
252 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
19 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$156,1612024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
89.8%2024 5-year
Black
0.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.3%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+46.8 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
80.9%3,117 participants ÷ 3,851 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+41.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+15.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
40.0%–55.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
78.9%
53.2%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
3,117
3,851 ± 445
80.9%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
2,071
3,890 ± 447
53.2%
Audited
E/D
3,335
3,540 ± 456
94.2%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
2,696
3,417 ± 408
78.9%
Audited
E/D
2,963
3,339 ± 415
88.7%
Audited
E/D
2,651
3,463
76.6%
Derived
—
2,811
3,553
79.1%
Derived
—
2,785
3,643 extrapolated
76.4%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Carmel Valley Village, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
72.4%
2,034 votes · D+44.9
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 72.3%
Republican
Bob Dole1996
38.1%
1,029 votes · D+11.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 34.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
2,378votes
72.3% of the vote · D+46.8
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 2,188 votes
Republican
Bob Dole1996
1,029votes
38.1% of the vote · D+11.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 972 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+47.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+45.6 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +42.3 pts
Republican
Bob Dole1996
−3.0pts R vs U.S.
Place D+11.5 · U.S. D+8.5
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1992 · −17.5 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Carmel Valley Village · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Monterey County, California, the county containing Carmel Valley Village — Carmel Valley Village’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Carmel Valley Village, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Carmel Valley Village is a small census-designated place in Monterey County where sparse population and an affluent, semi-rural character produce turnout patterns distinct from California's coastal urban centers.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 46.8 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 1.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.6 points.
A population of 4,785, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $156,161 describe the city.
How did Carmel Valley Village, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carmel Valley Village, California voted Democratic by 45.6 points (D+45.6), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 3,067 votes cast, 2,188 went Democratic and 789 went Republican.
How many people live in Carmel Valley Village, California?
Carmel Valley Village, California has a population of 4,785 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carmel Valley Village, California?
Median household income in Carmel Valley Village, California is $156,161 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Carmel Valley Village, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Carmel Valley Village, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
