Raleigh, North Carolina
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +15.6% |
| 2008 | +31.2% |
| 2012 | +28.7% |
| 2016 | +37.6% |
| 2020 | +42.8% |
| 2024 | +40.6% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 69.2%Harris171,841 | 28.7%Trump71,114 | 2.1% | D+40.6 | R+2.3 | D+42.1 | 248,190 | |
| D | 70.4%Biden178,696 | 27.6%Trump70,009 | 2.0% | D+42.8 | D+5.2 | D+38.4 | 253,690 | |
| D | 66.2%Clinton148,799 | 28.6%Trump64,211 | 5.3% | D+37.6 | D+8.9 | D+35.5 | 224,879 | |
| D | 63.6%Obama136,234 | 34.9%Romney74,769 | 1.6% | D+28.7 | R+2.5 | D+24.8 | 214,331 | |
| D | 65.1%Obama129,801 | 33.9%McCain67,622 | 1.0% | D+31.2 | D+15.6 | D+23.9 | 199,452 | |
| D | 57.5%Kerry88,007 | 41.9%Bush64,131 | 0.6% | D+15.6 | — | D+18.1 | 153,053 |
Raleigh's electorate has shifted markedly as Research Triangle expansion draws college-educated transplants, compressing margins in races that once broke decisively one way. Turnout among newer residents remains a key variable for statewide forecasters.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.8 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 40.6 points.
A population of 481,031, a 51% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $85,395 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Charlotte and Nashville-Davidson metropolitan government (balance).
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Raleigh, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/3755000/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.