Bull Run, Virginia
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +21.0% |
| 2008 | +41.3% |
| 2012 | +38.2% |
| 2016 | +41.1% |
| 2020 | +42.1% |
| 2024 | +27.3% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 62.2%Harris3,131 | 34.9%Trump1,756 | 2.9% | D+27.3 | R+14.8 | D+28.8 | 5,034 | |
| D | 70.2%Biden3,765 | 28.1%Trump1,505 | 1.7% | D+42.1 | D+1.1 | D+37.7 | 5,362 | |
| D | 67.0%Clinton3,270 | 25.9%Trump1,265 | 7.1% | D+41.1 | D+2.8 | D+39.0 | 4,883 | |
| D | 68.4%Obama2,985 | 30.1%Romney1,316 | 1.5% | D+38.2 | R+3.1 | D+34.4 | 4,366 | |
| D | 70.2%Obama3,091 | 28.9%McCain1,273 | 0.9% | D+41.3 | D+20.3 | D+34.0 | 4,404 | |
| D | 60.0%Kerry2,025 | 39.0%Bush1,316 | 0.9% | D+21.0 | — | D+23.5 | 3,373 |
Bull Run CDP sits in Prince William County's rapidly suburbanizing corridor, where population growth driven by D.C.-area commuters has steadily shifted the area's electoral composition over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 42.1 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 14.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.3 points.
A population of 16,859, a 21% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $89,679 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Sudley and Hutchison.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Bull Run, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/5111230/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.