Dumfries, Virginia
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +27.6% |
| 2008 | +46.5% |
| 2012 | +48.8% |
| 2016 | +50.5% |
| 2020 | +51.3% |
| 2024 | +36.7% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 66.9%Harris1,301 | 30.2%Trump588 | 2.9% | D+36.7 | R+14.6 | D+38.1 | 1,945 | |
| D | 74.8%Biden1,579 | 23.5%Trump496 | 1.8% | D+51.3 | D+0.8 | D+46.8 | 2,112 | |
| D | 72.2%Clinton1,382 | 21.7%Trump415 | 6.1% | D+50.5 | D+1.7 | D+48.4 | 1,914 | |
| D | 73.8%Obama1,256 | 25.0%Romney426 | 1.1% | D+48.8 | D+2.3 | D+44.9 | 1,701 | |
| D | 72.9%Obama1,250 | 26.4%McCain452 | 0.8% | D+46.5 | D+18.9 | D+39.3 | 1,715 | |
| D | 63.4%Kerry821 | 35.8%Bush463 | 0.8% | D+27.6 | — | D+30.1 | 1,295 |
Dumfries anchors the southern tip of Prince William County, a fast-growing exurban belt that has shifted measurably toward Democrats over the past decade as Northern Virginia's commuter footprint expanded southward.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 51.3 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 14.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.7 points.
A population of 5,816, a 25% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,355 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Potomac Mills and Triangle.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Dumfries, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/5123760/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.