New Baltimore, Virginia
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −37.6% |
| 2008 | −24.3% |
| 2012 | −29.2% |
| 2016 | −28.7% |
| 2020 | −19.7% |
| 2024 | −21.8% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 38.2%Harris2,801 | 60.0%Trump4,403 | 1.8% | R+21.8 | R+2.1 | R+20.4 | 7,338 | |
| R | 39.0%Biden2,696 | 58.7%Trump4,061 | 2.4% | R+19.7 | D+9.0 | R+24.2 | 6,921 | |
| R | 32.2%Clinton1,866 | 60.9%Trump3,529 | 6.9% | R+28.7 | D+0.5 | R+30.8 | 5,797 | |
| R | 34.6%Obama1,723 | 63.8%Romney3,175 | 1.6% | R+29.2 | R+4.9 | R+33.0 | 4,976 | |
| R | 37.3%Obama1,734 | 61.6%McCain2,861 | 1.1% | R+24.3 | D+13.3 | R+31.5 | 4,646 | |
| R | 31.0%Kerry1,277 | 68.6%Bush2,826 | 0.5% | R+37.6 | — | R+35.1 | 4,122 |
New Baltimore has grown rapidly as Washington-area commuters push deeper into Fauquier County, making it a bellwether for how far-out Northern Virginia exurbs shift as their populations urbanize.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 37.6 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.8 points.
A population of 11,919, a 80% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $189,327 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Trophy Club and Heath.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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New Baltimore, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/5155528/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.