Bay County, Florida
Precinct data
Results by precinct
29 precincts · 98,157 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -2020 | 1,570 | 4,828 | 118 | 6,516 | 24.1% | 74.1% | R+50.0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -2525 | 1,893 | 4,071 | 100 | 6,064 | 31.2% | 67.1% | R+35.9 |
| Precinct -1515 | 1,889 | 3,531 | 105 | 5,525 | 34.2% | 63.9% | R+29.7 |
| Precinct -1919 | 1,185 | 3,792 | 79 | 5,056 | 23.4% | 75.0% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -1717 | 1,241 | 3,505 | 94 | 4,840 | 25.6% | 72.4% | R+46.8 |
| Precinct -04A04A | 1,107 | 3,439 | 65 | 4,611 | 24.0% | 74.6% | R+50.6 |
| Precinct -1010 | 1,145 | 3,135 | 65 | 4,345 | 26.4% | 72.2% | R+45.8 |
| Precinct -0909 | 978 | 3,112 | 56 | 4,146 | 23.6% | 75.1% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -1616 | 1,253 | 2,756 | 77 | 4,086 | 30.7% | 67.4% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -1818 | 1,078 | 2,700 | 92 | 3,870 | 27.9% | 69.8% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -19A19A | 504 | 3,160 | 40 | 3,704 | 13.6% | 85.3% | R+71.7 |
| Precinct -11A11A | 842 | 2,571 | 39 | 3,452 | 24.4% | 74.5% | R+50.1 |
| Precinct -1212 | 800 | 2,597 | 47 | 3,444 | 23.2% | 75.4% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct -2323 | 1,178 | 2,092 | 48 | 3,318 | 35.5% | 63.1% | R+27.5 |
| Precinct -1414 | 878 | 2,191 | 64 | 3,133 | 28.0% | 69.9% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -2121 | 1,832 | 1,225 | 45 | 3,102 | 59.1% | 39.5% | D+19.6 |
| Precinct -2424 | 791 | 2,174 | 44 | 3,009 | 26.3% | 72.2% | R+46.0 |
| Precinct -0707 | 684 | 2,235 | 37 | 2,956 | 23.1% | 75.6% | R+52.5 |
| Precinct -0505 | 382 | 2,500 | 23 | 2,905 | 13.1% | 86.1% | R+72.9 |
| Precinct -1313 | 510 | 2,294 | 36 | 2,840 | 18.0% | 80.8% | R+62.8 |
| Precinct -1111 | 644 | 2,104 | 35 | 2,783 | 23.1% | 75.6% | R+52.5 |
| Precinct -0808 | 620 | 1,898 | 41 | 2,559 | 24.2% | 74.2% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct -0606 | 536 | 1,961 | 18 | 2,515 | 21.3% | 78.0% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct -0404 | 375 | 2,089 | 21 | 2,485 | 15.1% | 84.1% | R+69.0 |
| Precinct -0303 | 370 | 1,528 | 27 | 1,925 | 19.2% | 79.4% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -0101 | 246 | 1,533 | 13 | 1,792 | 13.7% | 85.5% | R+71.8 |
| Precinct -0202 | 212 | 1,385 | 15 | 1,612 | 13.2% | 85.9% | R+72.8 |
| Precinct -2626 | 224 | 695 | 8 | 927 | 24.2% | 75.0% | R+50.8 |
| Precinct -2222 | 234 | 396 | 7 | 637 | 36.7% | 62.2% | R+25.4 |
Presidential margin, 1916–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1916 | +37.8% |
| 1920 | +17.9% |
| 1924 | +41.7% |
| 1928 | +9.8% |
| 1932 | +72.5% |
| 1936 | +71.1% |
| 1940 | +76.6% |
| 1944 | +69.7% |
| 1948 | +58.0% |
| 1952 | +29.2% |
| 1956 | +27.0% |
| 1960 | +32.1% |
| 1964 | −24.2% |
| 1968 | −4.5% |
| 1972 | −67.6% |
| 1976 | +2.2% |
| 1980 | −24.8% |
| 1984 | −51.5% |
| 1988 | −46.0% |
| 1992 | −21.9% |
| 1996 | −21.9% |
| 2000 | −33.6% |
| 2004 | −43.1% |
| 2008 | −40.7% |
| 2012 | −43.6% |
| 2016 | −46.2% |
| 2020 | −43.5% |
| 2024 | −47.3% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 11 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 116,243 | 30,454 | 60,368 | 24,649 | 772 |
| 2018 | 121,578 | 30,929 | 63,334 | 26,126 | 1,189 |
| 2019 | 114,454 | 28,254 | 60,518 | 24,243 | 1,439 |
| 2020 | 126,875 | 30,089 | 67,718 | 26,770 | 2,298 |
| 2021 | 122,128 | 27,696 | 65,260 | 26,701 | 2,471 |
| 2023 | 124,320 | 25,433 | 68,375 | 27,314 | 3,198 |
| 2024 | 135,025 | 26,531 | 75,711 | 28,170 | 4,613 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+3,010 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +21,045 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $74,936 in average income, against $78,662 for residents who stayed — 5% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+16.6 on average — 31 points more Democratic-leaning than Bay County, FL itself (R+47.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Walton County, FL275R+57.8
- Okaloosa County, FL233R+42.4
- Washington County, FL182R+65.4
- Leon County, FL149D+21.8
- Gulf County, FL110R+54.2
- Escambia County, FL106R+19.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Washington County, FL216
- Walton County, FL182
- Okaloosa County, FL155
- Leon County, FL124
- Jackson County, FL122
- Gulf County, FL104
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −330 |
| 2012 | +1,059 |
| 2013 | +2,009 |
| 2014 | +2,816 |
| 2015 | +2,108 |
| 2016 | +1,015 |
| 2017 | +199 |
| 2018 | +868 |
| 2019 | −12,080 |
| 2021 | +5,443 |
| 2022 | +5,210 |
| 2023 | +4,761 |
| 2024 | +4,957 |
| 2025 | +3,010 |
Bay County's R+47.4 margin in 2024 ranks among the most lopsided in Florida, reflecting a predominantly white, military-adjacent population centered on Panama City and the Tyndall Air Force Base corridor.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 76.6 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 67.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 47.3 points.
A population of 186,393, a 73% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,533 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Jackson County and Walton County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Bay County, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/12005/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.