- Lead
- 1,793
- Total
- 5,771
- vs nation
- R+29.6
- Turnout
- 72.9%
Mitchell County, IA
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 72.9% of 7,950 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 1,624
- Total
- 5,822
- vs nation
- R+32.4
- Turnout
- 72.9%
- Lead
- 1,302
- Total
- 5,521
- vs nation
- R+25.7
- Turnout
- 68.2%
- Lead
- 188
- Total
- 5,586
- vs nation
- R+0.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 710
- Total
- 5,766
- vs nation
- D+5.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 139
- Total
- 5,480
- vs nation
- D+5.0
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 262
- Total
- 5,162
- vs nation
- D+4.6
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 719
- Total
- 5,071
- vs nation
- D+5.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+31.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 10,5752024 5-year
- Population density
- 23 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 469 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $71,3652024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 95.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+21.6 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+69.4 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Clayton County, IA · twin score 91.5
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
- 2024 turnout
- 72.9%5,796 participants ÷ 7,950 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +19.0 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -2.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 53.9%–57.5%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,796 | 7,950 ± 79 | 72.9% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 4,278 | 7,933 ± 64 | 53.9% | Audited | A/A |
| 5,867 | 8,044 ± 62 | 72.9% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 4,567 | 8,087 ± 82 | 56.5% | Audited | A/A |
| 5,521 | 8,097 ± 64 | 68.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 5,586 | 8,146 | 68.6% | Derived | — | |
| 5,766 | 8,040 | 71.7% | Derived | — | |
| 5,480 | 7,934 extrapolated | 69.1% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Mitchell County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Mitchell County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 12 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 5,757 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 9Precinct 9 | 303 | 591 | 10 | 904 | 33.5% | 65.4% | R+31.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 8Precinct 8 | 188 | 421 | 13 | 622 | 30.2% | 67.7% | R+37.5 |
| Precinct -Precinct 7Precinct 7 | 166 | 386 | 7 | 559 | 29.7% | 69.1% | R+39.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 6Precinct 6 | 159 | 380 | 6 | 545 | 29.2% | 69.7% | R+40.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 236 | 288 | 9 | 533 | 44.3% | 54.0% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1 | 179 | 291 | 14 | 484 | 37.0% | 60.1% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 179 | 301 | 3 | 483 | 37.1% | 62.3% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 172 | 259 | 5 | 436 | 39.4% | 59.4% | R+20.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 5Precinct 5 | 118 | 281 | 4 | 403 | 29.3% | 69.7% | R+40.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 114 | 255 | 5 | 374 | 30.5% | 68.2% | R+37.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 82 | 157 | 1 | 240 | 34.2% | 65.4% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 47 | 126 | 1 | 174 | 27.0% | 72.4% | R+45.4 |
presidential history
Party record book
Mitchell County, IA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
60.7%
3,868 votes · D+21.6
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 60.2%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
83.9%
4,476 votes · R+69.4
Runner-up · Theodore Roosevelt, 1904 · 74.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
3,940votes
60.2% of the vote · D+21.6
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · 3,868 votes
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
5,050votes
69.8% of the vote · R+39.7
Runner-up · Warren G. Harding, 1920 · 4,476 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Michael Dukakis1988
+17.9pts D vs U.S.
Place D+10.1 · U.S. R+7.7
Runner-up · Walter Mondale, 1984 · +7.5 pts
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
+43.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+69.4 · U.S. R+26.2
Runner-up · William McKinley, 1896 · +34.9 pts
Current officeholders
Seats representing Mitchell County, IA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 9.6 points more Republican than the rolls.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 7,379 | 2,062 | 2,529 | 2,787 | 1 |
| 2010 | 7,388 | 1,984 | 2,594 | 2,807 | 3 |
| 2012 | 7,412 | 1,907 | 2,622 | 2,876 | 7 |
| 2014 | 7,355 | 1,867 | 2,566 | 2,911 | 11 |
| 2016 | 7,392 | 1,787 | 2,633 | 2,961 | 11 |
| 2018 | 7,246 | 1,682 | 2,599 | 2,937 | 28 |
| 2020 | 7,434 | 1,838 | 2,840 | 2,703 | 53 |
| 2022 | 7,396 | 1,712 | 2,972 | 2,663 | 49 |
| 2024 | 7,370 | 1,556 | 3,140 | 2,613 | 61 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+68 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −62 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $57,162 in average income, against $87,089 for residents who stayed — 34% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+28.6 on average — 2.5 points more Democratic-leaning than Mitchell County, IA itself (R+31.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Floyd County, IA21R+25.6
- Howard County, IA20R+31.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Cerro Gordo County, IA31
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −76 |
| 2012 | +25 |
| 2013 | −32 |
| 2014 | +23 |
| 2015 | −6 |
| 2016 | −24 |
| 2017 | −60 |
| 2018 | +21 |
| 2019 | +10 |
| 2021 | −7 |
| 2022 | −14 |
| 2023 | −37 |
| 2024 | +47 |
| 2025 | +68 |
Mitchell County's population has declined modestly over two decades as its agricultural economy consolidates, and that demographic shift has tracked closely with a Republican presidential margin that grew from single digits in the early 2000s to over 30 points by 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 21.6 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 69.4 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.1 points.
A population of 10,575, a 95% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,365 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Clayton County and Chickasaw County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Mitchell County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19131/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.