Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupShelby CountyMissouriUnited States
German17.7%21.3%12.5%
English12.3%11.9%9.5%
Irish10.0%11.8%9.4%
American8.0%6.8%5.3%
French1.3%2.2%1.6%
Scottish1.2%1.8%1.3%
Polish0.6%1.3%2.2%
Scotch-Irish0.5%——
Mexican1.3%3.2%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.3%0.4%1.8%
Dominican0.2%—0.7%
Costa Rican0.2%——
African American†1.1%10.0%9.9%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Shelby County
Missouri
United States
Median age
42.7
39.2
39.1
Age 18–24
7.3%
9.2%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
22.3%
17.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Shelby County
Missouri
United States
Median household income
$51,594
$70,702
$84,427
Poverty rate
15.9%
12.6%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
18.5%
32.4%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Shelby County
Missouri
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
2.1%
6.7%
22.3%
Spanish
1.5%
2.9%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
Shelby County
Missouri
United States
Catholic
4.8%
12.5%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
33.4%
24.1%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
51.7%
51.7%
51.5%
Mainline Protestant
10.1%
5.7%
5.2%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Shelby County, Missouri
Precinct data
Results by precinct
6 precincts · 3,262 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Shelby County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -SHELBINA EAST WESTSHELBINA EAST WEST
216
998
9
1,223
17.7%
81.6%
R+63.9
Precinct -CLARENCECLARENCE
104
624
7
735
14.1%
84.9%
R+70.7
Precinct -SHELBYVILLE/EMDENSHELBYVILLE/EMDEN
93
404
4
501
18.6%
80.6%
R+62.1
Precinct -BETHEL/TIGER FORKBETHEL/TIGER FORK
64
349
0
413
15.5%
84.5%
R+69.0
Precinct -HUNTWELLHUNTWELL
41
173
1
215
19.1%
80.5%
R+61.4
Precinct -LEONARDLEONARD
32
143
0
175
18.3%
81.7%
R+63.4
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
+31.8%
1896
+37.9%
1900
+35.2%
1904
+25.0%
1908
+30.5%
1912
+42.5%
1916
+35.7%
1920
+29.5%
1924
+38.4%
1928
+15.6%
1932
+58.2%
1936
+43.8%
1940
+29.9%
1944
+27.9%
1948
+43.1%
1952
+19.8%
1956
+20.9%
1960
+16.4%
1964
+44.5%
1968
+8.6%
1972
−13.5%
1976
+20.9%
1980
−7.4%
1984
−17.6%
1988
+6.8%
1992
+7.8%
1996
+6.4%
2000
−20.7%
2004
−30.8%
2008
−31.7%
2012
−37.8%
2016
−58.6%
2020
−62.9%
2024
−65.6%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
16.9%Harris550
82.5%Trump2,691
0.5%Oliver15 +1
R+65.6
R+2.7
R+64.2
3,262
All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican82.5%2,691
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic16.9%550
Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%15
Jill SteinIndependent0.2%6
R
17.7%Biden592
80.6%Trump2,700
1.4%Jorgensen46
R+62.9
R+4.3
R+67.4
3,350
R
18.5%Clinton606
77.1%Trump2,524
2.8%Johnson92
R+58.6
R+20.8
R+60.7
3,274
R
29.9%Obama966
67.7%Romney2,188
2.0%Gray65
R+37.8
R+6.1
R+41.7
3,232
R
33.6%Obama1,114
65.3%McCain2,166
1.1%
R+31.7
R+0.9
R+39.0
3,316
R
34.3%Kerry1,201
65.1%Bush2,280
0.6%
R+30.8
R+10.1
R+28.4
3,502
R
38.7%Gore1,262
59.4%Bush1,936
1.1%Nader37
R+20.7
R+27.1
R+21.2
3,257
D
46.1%Clinton1,410
39.6%Dole1,213
13.5%Perot413
D+6.4
R+1.4
R+2.1
3,060
D
42.3%Clinton1,435
34.4%Bush1,169
23.2%Perot786
D+7.8
D+1.0
D+2.3
3,394
D
53.3%Dukakis1,818
46.5%Bush1,586
0.1%
D+6.8
D+24.4
D+14.5
3,408
R
41.2%Mondale1,573
58.8%Reagan2,243
0.0%
R+17.6
R+10.2
D+0.7
3,816
R
45.3%Carter1,849
52.7%Reagan2,151
1.9%
R+7.4
R+28.3
D+2.3
4,079
D
60.2%Carter2,227
39.2%Ford1,453
0.6%
D+20.9
D+34.4
D+18.8
3,702
R
43.3%McGovern1,569
56.7%Nixon2,057
0.0%
R+13.5
R+22.1
D+9.7
3,626
D
49.9%Humphrey2,045
41.3%Nixon1,693
8.7%
D+8.6
R+35.9
D+9.3
4,096
D
72.3%Johnson3,156
27.7%Goldwater1,212
0.0%
D+44.5
D+28.1
D+21.9
4,368
D
58.2%Kennedy2,870
41.8%Nixon2,062
0.0%
D+16.4
R+4.6
D+16.2
4,932
D
60.5%Stevenson3,044
39.5%Eisenhower1,990
0.0%
D+20.9
D+1.1
D+36.3
5,034
D
59.7%Stevenson3,237
39.9%Eisenhower2,163
0.4%
D+19.8
R+23.3
D+30.6
5,424
D
71.4%Truman3,400
28.3%Dewey1,348
0.3%
D+43.1
D+15.2
D+38.6
4,760
D
63.8%Roosevelt3,435
35.9%Dewey1,934
0.3%
D+27.9
R+2.1
D+20.4
5,387
D
64.7%Roosevelt4,028
34.8%Willkie2,167
0.4%
D+29.9
R+13.8
D+20.0
6,221
D
71.6%Roosevelt4,367
27.8%Landon1,697
0.6%
D+43.8
R+14.5
D+19.5
6,102
D
78.9%Roosevelt4,215
20.7%Hoover1,104
0.5%
D+58.2
D+42.6
D+40.4
5,344
D
57.8%Smith3,158
42.1%Hoover2,303
0.1%
D+15.6
R+22.7
D+33.1
5,468
D
68.4%Davis3,957
30.0%Coolidge1,737
1.5%La Follette88
D+38.4
D+8.9
D+63.5
5,788
D
64.2%Cox3,935
34.7%Harding2,128
1.2%
D+29.5
R+6.3
D+55.6
6,134
D
67.3%Wilson2,549
31.5%Hughes1,195
1.2%
D+35.7
R+6.8
D+32.6
3,790
D
65.5%Wilson2,450
23.0%Taft859
11.5%
D+42.5
D+12.0
D+23.0
3,740
D
64.5%Bryan2,466
33.9%Taft1,298
1.6%
D+30.5
D+5.5
D+40.1
3,825
D
61.3%Parker2,124
36.3%Roosevelt1,257
2.4%
D+25.0
R+10.2
D+44.7
3,463
D
66.6%Bryan2,578
31.5%McKinley1,217
1.9%
D+35.2
R+2.7
D+42.7
3,868
D
68.6%Bryan2,850
30.7%McKinley1,275
0.8%
D+37.9
D+6.1
D+44.0
4,157
D
63.7%Cleveland2,252
31.9%Harrison1,128
4.4%
D+31.8
—
D+30.1
3,534
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
19.2%616
78.9%2,535
3,212
2022
R
20.8%479
76.3%1,753
2,298
2018
R
25.9%709
70.7%1,935
2,736
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Shelby County, MO
Year
Total registered
2016
4,542
2018
4,399
2020
4,451
2022
4,349
2024
4,320
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−124 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −549 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $48,318 in average income, against $63,029 for residents who stayed — 23% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+61.5 on average — 4.2 points more Democratic-leaning than Shelby County, MO itself (R+65.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
Macon County, MO28R+61.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
Macon County, MO22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Shelby County, MO in Shelby County, MO: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−101
2012
−20
2013
−54
2014
−52
2015
+26
2016
−46
2017
−45
2018
+10
2019
−93
2021
−91
2022
+55
2023
−44
2024
+30
2025
−124
With roughly 6,800 residents spread across rolling northeast Missouri farmland, Shelby County recorded a 65-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the state's most lopsided rural counties by that measure.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 58.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 65.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 65.6 points.
A population of 5,986, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $51,594 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Maries County and Texas County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Shelby County, Missouri voted Republican by 65.6 points (R+65.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,262 votes cast, 550 went Democratic and 2,691 went Republican.
When did Shelby County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Shelby County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Shelby County, Missouri?
Shelby County, Missouri has a population of 5,986 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Shelby County, Missouri?
Median household income in Shelby County, Missouri is $51,594 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Shelby County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Shelby County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 24 went Democratic and 10 went Republican.
