Adair County, Missouri: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+33%. Republican peak: R+46 in 1972.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+33MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 25,3012024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,5362024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+21 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Newaygo County, MI · similarity 0.99
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Adair CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Adair County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −23.4% |
| 1896 | −1.9% |
| 1900 | −9.8% |
| 1904 | −22.8% |
| 1908 | −10.7% |
| 1912 | +7.3% |
| 1916 | −7.7% |
| 1920 | −29.5% |
| 1924 | −19.3% |
| 1928 | −32.0% |
| 1932 | +21.0% |
| 1936 | +6.2% |
| 1940 | −8.3% |
| 1944 | −15.3% |
| 1948 | +1.4% |
| 1952 | −26.4% |
| 1956 | −21.8% |
| 1960 | −26.8% |
| 1964 | +8.5% |
| 1968 | −25.2% |
| 1972 | −45.8% |
| 1976 | −17.1% |
| 1980 | −21.1% |
| 1984 | −34.7% |
| 1988 | −23.0% |
| 1992 | +0.9% |
| 1996 | −2.1% |
| 2000 | −18.5% |
| 2004 | −12.5% |
| 2008 | −1.3% |
| 2012 | −14.1% |
| 2016 | −24.7% |
| 2020 | −26.2% |
| 2024 | −33.4% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 3,334 | 6,771 | 10,291 | ||
| R | 3,710 | 6,413 | 10,336 | ||
| R | 3,500 | 6,030 | 10,226 | ||
| R | 4,219 | 5,651 | 10,126 | ||
| R | 5,735 | 5,891 | 11,871 | ||
| R | 4,938 | 6,367 | 11,404 | ||
| R | 4,101 | 6,050 | 10,552 | ||
| R | 4,441 | 4,656 | 10,397 | ||
| D | 4,232 | 4,141 | 10,640 | ||
| R | 3,571 | 5,721 | 9,334 | ||
| R | 3,119 | 6,430 | 9,549 | ||
| R | 3,507 | 5,513 | 9,522 | ||
| R | 3,684 | 5,249 | 9,133 | ||
| R | 2,286 | 6,157 | 8,443 | ||
| R | 2,645 | 4,624 | 7,861 | ||
| D | 4,235 | 3,573 | 7,808 | ||
| R | 3,160 | 5,469 | 8,629 | ||
| R | 3,418 | 5,322 | 8,740 | ||
| R | 3,339 | 5,748 | 9,120 | ||
| D | 4,136 | 4,024 | 8,201 | ||
| R | 3,606 | 4,909 | 8,541 | ||
| R | 4,813 | 5,688 | 10,566 | ||
| D | 5,315 | 4,685 | 10,127 | ||
| D | 4,623 | 2,991 | 7,760 | ||
| R | 2,841 | 5,538 | 8,429 | ||
| R | 2,800 | 4,383 | 8,183 | ||
| R | 2,534 | 4,861 | 7,878 | ||
| R | 2,275 | 2,681 | 5,247 | ||
| D | 1,784 | 1,427 | 4,893 | ||
| R | 1,992 | 2,514 | 4,893 | ||
| R | 1,687 | 2,791 | 4,832 | ||
| R | 2,180 | 2,673 | 5,052 | ||
| R | 2,311 | 2,402 | 4,744 | ||
| R | 1,039 | 1,953 | 3,902 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
19.9%
English
13.3%
Irish
11.2%
American
6.4%
Scottish
2.4%
Italian
1.6%
French
1.6%
African American
3.5%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 30.2 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$61,536
Adair County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Adair County$61,536
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Adair County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
22.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1813.0%
Working age (18–64)24.9%
Seniors (65+)17.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
91.8%
speak English only
Other Indo-European4.5%
Spanish1.7%
Other languages1.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Kirksville's presence as home to Truman State University tempers but doesn't reverse Adair County's strong Republican lean, which widened to R+33.6 in 2024 despite the college-town demographic.
The Democratic margin here peaked at twenty-one points in 1932. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved seven points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was thirty-three points.
A population of 25,301, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,536 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Newaygo County and Lunenburg County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Adair County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29001/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Adair County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Adair County, Missouri voted Republican by 33.4 points (R+33), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 10,291 votes cast, 3,334 went Democratic and 6,771 went Republican.
What is Adair County, Missouri's political typology?
Akashic places Adair County, Missouri in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 6 times, Republican 28 times, and other 0 times.
When did Adair County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Adair County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Adair County, Missouri?
Adair County, Missouri has a population of 25,301 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Adair County, Missouri?
Median household income in Adair County, Missouri is $61,536 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Adair County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Adair County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 28 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.