Pembina County, North Dakota: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+53%. Republican peak: R+53 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+53MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 6,7272024 5-year
- Median household income
- $68,3932024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+53 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cavalier County, ND · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Pembina CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Pembina County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −36.7% |
| 1896 | +3.4% |
| 1900 | −13.1% |
| 1904 | −42.2% |
| 1908 | −7.7% |
| 1912 | +14.5% |
| 1916 | −2.4% |
| 1920 | −47.0% |
| 1924 | −46.6% |
| 1928 | −21.6% |
| 1932 | +30.9% |
| 1936 | +32.4% |
| 1940 | +11.8% |
| 1944 | +9.2% |
| 1948 | +5.0% |
| 1952 | −35.7% |
| 1956 | −23.9% |
| 1960 | −15.3% |
| 1964 | +23.9% |
| 1968 | −19.3% |
| 1972 | −29.1% |
| 1976 | −10.3% |
| 1980 | −39.5% |
| 1984 | −34.8% |
| 1988 | −20.6% |
| 1992 | −17.7% |
| 1996 | −14.8% |
| 2000 | −35.4% |
| 2004 | −29.7% |
| 2008 | −6.9% |
| 2012 | −19.8% |
| 2016 | −48.4% |
| 2020 | −50.3% |
| 2024 | −52.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 704 | 2,350 | 3,112 | ||
| R | 786 | 2,460 | 3,331 | ||
| R | 681 | 2,208 | 3,153 | ||
| R | 1,253 | 1,899 | 3,255 | ||
| R | 1,494 | 1,722 | 3,307 | ||
| R | 1,321 | 2,466 | 3,856 | ||
| R | 1,093 | 2,430 | 3,779 | ||
| R | 1,191 | 1,678 | 3,294 | ||
| R | 1,186 | 1,917 | 4,127 | ||
| R | 1,616 | 2,471 | 4,149 | ||
| R | 1,367 | 2,895 | 4,387 | ||
| R | 1,239 | 3,101 | 4,718 | ||
| R | 2,274 | 2,810 | 5,209 | ||
| R | 1,801 | 3,317 | 5,203 | ||
| R | 1,686 | 2,574 | 4,596 | ||
| D | 3,198 | 1,961 | 5,167 | ||
| R | 2,460 | 3,348 | 5,810 | ||
| R | 1,887 | 3,077 | 4,977 | ||
| R | 1,891 | 4,012 | 5,944 | ||
| D | 2,666 | 2,406 | 5,155 | ||
| D | 2,903 | 2,410 | 5,361 | ||
| D | 3,711 | 2,924 | 6,655 | ||
| D | 4,139 | 2,040 | 6,481 | ||
| D | 3,636 | 1,911 | 5,590 | ||
| R | 2,141 | 3,324 | 5,472 | ||
| R | 588 | 2,783 | 4,715 | ||
| R | 1,405 | 3,925 | 5,359 | ||
| R | 1,400 | 1,469 | 2,897 | ||
| D | 975 | 615 | 2,485 | ||
| R | 1,185 | 1,389 | 2,643 | ||
| R | 743 | 1,870 | 2,671 | ||
| R | 1,321 | 1,732 | 3,130 | ||
| D | 1,807 | 1,687 | 3,546 | ||
| O | 0 | 954 | 2,598 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
24.8%
Irish
9.2%
English
8.2%
French
6.7%
American
4.1%
Polish
3.5%
Scottish
2.5%
African American
0.8%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 45.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$68,393
Pembina County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Pembina County$68,393
North Dakota$76,657
United States$80,734
Pembina County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
9.2%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1811.2%
Working age (18–64)8.6%
Seniors (65+)9.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
96.8%
speak English only
Spanish1.6%
Other Indo-European1.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 37.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Pembina sits along the Manitoba line where sugar beets and grain dominate the economy, and its presidential margins have exceeded 50 points in recent cycles, reflecting a rural, agriculture-dependent electorate with little urban counterweight.
The Democratic margin here peaked at thirty-two points in 1936. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved three points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was fifty-three points.
A population of 6,727, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,393 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cavalier County and Cass County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Pembina County, North Dakota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/38067/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More in North Dakota
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Pembina County, North Dakota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Pembina County, North Dakota voted Republican by 52.9 points (R+53), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,112 votes cast, 704 went Democratic and 2,350 went Republican.
What is Pembina County, North Dakota's political typology?
Akashic places Pembina County, North Dakota in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 8 times, Republican 25 times, and other 1 times.
When did Pembina County, North Dakota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Pembina County, North Dakota voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Pembina County, North Dakota?
Pembina County, North Dakota has a population of 6,727 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pembina County, North Dakota?
Median household income in Pembina County, North Dakota is $68,393 — below the national median of $80,734. The North Dakota state median is $76,657.
What is the political history of Pembina County, North Dakota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Pembina County, North Dakota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 25 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.