Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupClay CountyTennesseeUnited States
American24.9%11.3%5.3%
Irish12.5%9.3%9.4%
English8.4%13.3%9.5%
German7.8%9.1%12.5%
Italian2.4%2.2%4.8%
Polish1.4%—2.2%
Scotch-Irish1.0%1.7%—
Scottish0.8%2.2%1.3%
African American†3.3%14.3%9.9%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Clay County
Tennessee
United States
Median age
48.5
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
6.9%
8.9%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
25.0%
17.1%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Clay County
Tennessee
United States
Median household income
$39,972
$69,595
$84,427
Poverty rate
24.2%
13.8%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
11.5%
31.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Clay County
Tennessee
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
1.6%
8.7%
22.3%
Religious landscape
Measure
Clay County
Tennessee
United States
Catholic
1.0%
4.0%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
40.5%
36.6%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
54.7%
44.5%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Clay County, Tennessee
Precinct data
Results by precinct
7 precincts · 3,760 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Clay County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -DXRDXR
71
670
6
747
9.5%
89.7%
R+80.2
Precinct -BLBL
116
553
5
674
17.2%
82.0%
R+64.8
Precinct -HSHS
79
557
2
638
12.4%
87.3%
R+74.9
Precinct -CELCEL
165
436
6
607
27.2%
71.8%
R+44.6
Precinct -BBBB
71
334
4
409
17.4%
81.7%
R+64.3
Precinct -PRPR
66
328
2
396
16.7%
82.8%
R+66.2
Precinct -MGMG
46
239
4
289
15.9%
82.7%
R+66.8
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
+27.9%
1896
+20.5%
1900
+24.5%
1904
+3.9%
1908
+9.2%
1912
+22.2%
1916
+8.6%
1920
−14.9%
1924
+15.4%
1928
+1.8%
1932
+38.3%
1936
+26.7%
1940
+41.2%
1944
+7.4%
1948
+23.3%
1952
+6.9%
1956
+2.5%
1960
−5.8%
1964
+31.6%
1968
−7.6%
1972
−20.1%
1976
+25.7%
1980
+1.2%
1984
−2.2%
1988
−4.3%
1992
+26.3%
1996
+15.0%
2000
+13.5%
2004
+0.7%
2008
−14.3%
2012
−25.2%
2016
−49.1%
2020
−57.0%
2024
−66.6%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
16.3%Harris614
82.9%Trump3,117
0.6%Kennedy21 +3
R+66.6
R+9.6
R+65.1
3,760
All 6 candidates in 2024 · 4 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican82.9%3,117
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic16.3%614
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent0.6%21
Jay J BowmanIndependent0.1%5
Jill SteinIndependent0.1%2
Rachele FruitIndependent0.0%1
R
21.0%Biden735
78.0%Trump2,733
0.6%Jorgensen22
R+57.0
R+7.9
R+61.4
3,506
R
24.2%Clinton707
73.3%Trump2,141
1.6%Johnson47
R+49.1
R+23.9
R+51.2
2,920
R
36.8%Obama1,037
62.0%Romney1,747
1.3%
R+25.2
R+10.9
R+29.0
2,820
R
41.7%Obama1,248
56.0%McCain1,676
2.3%
R+14.3
R+15.0
R+21.6
2,994
D
49.9%Kerry1,675
49.2%Bush1,650
1.0%
D+0.7
R+12.7
D+3.2
3,357
D
56.1%Gore1,931
42.6%Bush1,468
0.6%Nader19
D+13.5
R+1.6
D+12.9
3,442
D
51.9%Clinton1,559
36.9%Dole1,108
10.5%Perot316
D+15.0
R+11.3
D+6.5
3,006
D
59.6%Clinton1,922
33.2%Bush1,072
6.9%Perot223
D+26.3
D+30.7
D+20.8
3,226
R
47.5%Dukakis1,183
51.8%Bush1,291
0.8%
R+4.3
R+2.2
D+3.4
2,493
R
48.6%Mondale1,281
50.8%Reagan1,338
0.6%
R+2.2
R+3.3
D+16.1
2,634
D
49.8%Carter1,376
48.6%Reagan1,344
1.6%
D+1.2
R+24.6
D+10.9
2,765
D
62.4%Carter1,671
36.7%Ford982
0.9%
D+25.7
D+45.8
D+23.7
2,678
R
38.9%McGovern648
59.0%Nixon982
2.0%
R+20.1
R+12.5
D+3.1
1,664
R
34.5%Humphrey667
42.1%Nixon814
23.3%
R+7.6
R+39.2
R+6.9
1,932
D
65.8%Johnson1,196
34.2%Goldwater622
0.0%
D+31.6
D+37.4
D+9.0
1,818
R
46.3%Kennedy976
52.1%Nixon1,098
1.5%
R+5.8
R+8.3
R+6.0
2,106
D
50.8%Stevenson948
48.3%Eisenhower902
0.9%
D+2.5
R+4.5
D+17.9
1,867
D
53.2%Stevenson968
46.2%Eisenhower842
0.6%
D+6.9
R+16.4
D+17.7
1,821
D
60.3%Truman1,146
37.0%Dewey703
2.7%
D+23.3
D+15.9
D+18.8
1,901
D
53.7%Roosevelt754
46.3%Dewey650
0.0%
D+7.4
R+33.7
R+0.1
1,404
D
70.6%Roosevelt1,288
29.4%Willkie537
0.0%
D+41.2
D+14.4
D+31.2
1,825
D
62.4%Roosevelt661
35.7%Landon378
1.9%
D+26.7
R+11.6
D+2.5
1,059
D
68.5%Roosevelt819
30.2%Hoover361
1.3%
D+38.3
D+36.5
D+20.5
1,196
D
50.7%Smith576
49.0%Hoover556
0.3%
D+1.8
R+13.6
D+19.2
1,135
D
57.0%Davis668
41.7%Coolidge488
0.9%La Follette10
D+15.4
D+30.3
D+40.6
1,171
R
42.3%Cox772
57.1%Harding1,044
0.6%
R+14.9
R+23.5
D+11.3
1,827
D
53.6%Wilson689
45.0%Hughes578
1.4%
D+8.6
R+13.5
D+5.5
1,285
D
57.3%Wilson718
35.1%Taft440
7.6%
D+22.2
D+13.0
D+2.6
1,253
D
54.1%Bryan764
44.9%Taft634
1.1%
D+9.2
D+5.3
D+18.8
1,413
D
49.6%Parker544
45.7%Roosevelt501
4.7%
D+3.9
R+20.6
D+23.6
1,097
D
61.3%Bryan830
36.8%McKinley498
2.0%
D+24.5
D+4.0
D+32.1
1,355
D
59.4%Bryan836
38.9%McKinley548
1.6%
D+20.5
R+7.4
D+26.5
1,407
D
58.9%Cleveland743
31.0%Harrison391
10.1%
D+27.9
—
D+26.2
1,262
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
16.7%593
81.7%2,900
3,551
2020
R
19.1%616
78.3%2,525
3,225
2018
R
34.0%871
64.2%1,643
2,559
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Clay County, TN
Year
Total registered
2016
5,702
2018
5,751
2020
5,547
2022
5,807
2024
5,526
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+82 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +659 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $50,005 in average income, against $53,077 for residents who stayed — 6% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+61.3 on average — 5.3 points more Democratic-leaning than Clay County, TN itself (R+66.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
Putnam County, TN25R+47.4
Macon County, TN22R+74.3
Overton County, TN20R+64.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
Macon County, TN22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Clay County, TN in Clay County, TN: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−71
2012
+5
2013
−12
2014
−28
2015
+63
2016
+50
2017
+45
2018
+61
2019
−29
2021
+69
2022
+124
2023
+90
2024
+210
2025
+82
Clay County's small, predominantly white rural population on the Kentucky border has delivered Republican presidential margins above 60 points in each of the last several cycles, making it among the most reliably one-sided counties in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.2 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 66.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 9.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.6 points.
A population of 7,670, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $39,972 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Perry County and Benton County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Clay County, Tennessee voted Republican by 66.6 points (R+66.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,760 votes cast, 614 went Democratic and 3,117 went Republican.
When did Clay County, Tennessee last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Clay County, Tennessee voted Democratic was 2004.
How many people live in Clay County, Tennessee?
Clay County, Tennessee has a population of 7,670 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Clay County, Tennessee?
Median household income in Clay County, Tennessee is $39,972 — below the national median of $80,734. The Tennessee state median is $69,595.
What is the political history of Clay County, Tennessee?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Clay County, Tennessee from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 11 went Republican.
