Middlesex County, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 6,907 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -201 - NEW MARKET201 - NEW MARKET | 432 | 1,098 | 10 | 1,540 | 28.1% | 71.3% | R+43.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -501 - WILTON501 - WILTON | 476 | 1,000 | 20 | 1,496 | 31.8% | 66.8% | R+35.0 |
| Precinct -401 - HARMONY VILLAGE401 - HARMONY VILLAGE | 503 | 767 | 23 | 1,293 | 38.9% | 59.3% | R+20.4 |
| Precinct -302 - CHURCH VIEW302 - CHURCH VIEW | 525 | 712 | 9 | 1,246 | 42.1% | 57.1% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -102 - URBANNA102 - URBANNA | 324 | 487 | 7 | 818 | 39.6% | 59.5% | R+19.9 |
| Precinct -101 - SALUDA101 - SALUDA | 213 | 293 | 8 | 514 | 41.4% | 57.0% | R+15.6 |
| Church View51119000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Harmony Village51119000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| New Market51119000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Saluda51119000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Urbanna51119000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Wilton51119000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −3.3% |
| 1896 | +0.6% |
| 1900 | +3.5% |
| 1904 | +46.4% |
| 1908 | +43.2% |
| 1912 | +46.9% |
| 1916 | +41.3% |
| 1920 | +44.0% |
| 1924 | +68.8% |
| 1928 | +11.0% |
| 1932 | +63.1% |
| 1936 | +67.9% |
| 1940 | +64.7% |
| 1944 | +54.0% |
| 1948 | +21.2% |
| 1952 | −16.2% |
| 1956 | −30.8% |
| 1960 | −17.8% |
| 1964 | −21.1% |
| 1968 | −11.5% |
| 1972 | −48.0% |
| 1976 | −9.7% |
| 1980 | −12.4% |
| 1984 | −36.2% |
| 1988 | −30.1% |
| 1992 | −13.4% |
| 1996 | −10.2% |
| 2000 | −25.0% |
| 2004 | −26.4% |
| 2008 | −19.2% |
| 2012 | −20.5% |
| 2016 | −26.0% |
| 2020 | −25.1% |
| 2024 | −27.3% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 7,898 |
| 2018 | 7,971 |
| 2020 | 8,457 |
| 2022 | 8,711 |
| 2024 | 8,965 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−17 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +844 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $82,012 in average income, against $85,051 for residents who stayed — 4% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+19.1 on average — 8.2 points more Democratic-leaning than Middlesex County, VA itself (R+27.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Gloucester County, VA50R+38.2
- Henrico County, VA20D+28.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Gloucester County, VA48
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −63 |
| 2012 | +77 |
| 2013 | −23 |
| 2014 | −34 |
| 2015 | +79 |
| 2016 | +137 |
| 2017 | −51 |
| 2018 | +170 |
| 2019 | −92 |
| 2021 | +283 |
| 2022 | +244 |
| 2023 | +54 |
| 2024 | +80 |
| 2025 | −17 |
Middlesex County hugs the Rappahannock River where it meets the bay, and its small, predominantly white, aging population has delivered Republican presidential margins above 25 points in each of the last three cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 68.8 points in 1924 and a Republican high of 48.0 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.3 points.
A population of 10,847, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,060 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Northumberland County and Lancaster County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Middlesex County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51119/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.