Middlesex County, Virginia: Stable Rural Right county. In 2024, voted R+27%. Democratic peak: D+69 in 1924.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+27MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Stable Rural RightAkashic typology
- Population
- 10,8472024 5-year
- Median household income
- $75,0602024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 78.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+69 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+48 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Gloucester County, VA · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Middlesex CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Middlesex County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −3.3% |
| 1896 | +0.6% |
| 1900 | +3.5% |
| 1904 | +46.4% |
| 1908 | +43.2% |
| 1912 | +46.9% |
| 1916 | +41.3% |
| 1920 | +44.0% |
| 1924 | +68.8% |
| 1928 | +11.0% |
| 1932 | +63.1% |
| 1936 | +67.9% |
| 1940 | +64.7% |
| 1944 | +54.0% |
| 1948 | +21.2% |
| 1952 | −16.2% |
| 1956 | −30.8% |
| 1960 | −17.8% |
| 1964 | −21.1% |
| 1968 | −11.5% |
| 1972 | −48.0% |
| 1976 | −9.7% |
| 1980 | −12.4% |
| 1984 | −36.2% |
| 1988 | −30.1% |
| 1992 | −13.4% |
| 1996 | −10.2% |
| 2000 | −25.0% |
| 2004 | −26.4% |
| 2008 | −19.2% |
| 2012 | −20.5% |
| 2016 | −26.0% |
| 2020 | −25.1% |
| 2024 | −27.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 2,473 | 4,357 | 6,907 | ||
| R | 2,491 | 4,196 | 6,785 | ||
| R | 2,108 | 3,670 | 6,017 | ||
| R | 2,370 | 3,619 | 6,080 | ||
| R | 2,391 | 3,545 | 6,006 | ||
| R | 1,914 | 3,336 | 5,377 | ||
| R | 1,671 | 2,844 | 4,689 | ||
| R | 1,704 | 2,141 | 4,297 | ||
| R | 1,597 | 2,224 | 4,685 | ||
| R | 1,361 | 2,571 | 4,018 | ||
| R | 1,206 | 2,612 | 3,885 | ||
| R | 1,395 | 1,810 | 3,344 | ||
| R | 1,312 | 1,608 | 3,039 | ||
| R | 730 | 2,164 | 2,987 | ||
| R | 575 | 809 | 2,042 | ||
| R | 3,238 | 4,976 | 8,227 | ||
| R | 574 | 823 | 1,402 | ||
| R | 338 | 721 | 1,243 | ||
| R | 507 | 705 | 1,221 | ||
| D | 457 | 271 | 879 | ||
| D | 627 | 186 | 816 | ||
| D | 586 | 125 | 713 | ||
| D | 653 | 123 | 781 | ||
| D | 595 | 127 | 742 | ||
| D | 397 | 318 | 715 | ||
| D | 438 | 78 | 523 | ||
| D | 438 | 170 | 609 | ||
| D | 373 | 155 | 528 | ||
| D | 374 | 128 | 524 | ||
| D | 413 | 164 | 577 | ||
| D | 416 | 151 | 571 | ||
| D | 686 | 640 | 1,330 | ||
| D | 688 | 680 | 1,376 | ||
| R | 271 | 291 | 604 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
24.5%
English
20.0%
Irish
10.3%
German
6.9%
Italian
3.6%
Polish
2.0%
Scottish
1.3%
African American
12.9%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 55.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$75,060
Middlesex County ranks in the top 25% of US counties.
Middlesex County$75,060
Virginia$93,170
United States$80,734
Middlesex County ranks in the top 25% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
7.3%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 187.6%
Working age (18–64)7.5%
Seniors (65+)6.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
96.7%
speak English only
Spanish2.2%
Other Indo-European0.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.4%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 61.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Middlesex County hugs the Rappahannock River where it meets the bay, and its small, predominantly white, aging population has delivered Republican presidential margins above 25 points in each of the last three cycles.
The Republican margin here reached forty-eight points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved two points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was twenty-seven points.
A population of 10,847, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $75,060 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Gloucester County and Mathews County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Middlesex County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51119/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More in Virginia
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Frequently asked questions
How did Middlesex County, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Middlesex County, Virginia voted Republican by 27.3 points (R+27), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 6,907 votes cast, 2,473 went Democratic and 4,357 went Republican.
What is Middlesex County, Virginia's political typology?
Akashic places Middlesex County, Virginia in the "Stable Rural Right" typology — Mountain, Plains, and rural Republican counties already near their ceiling, with little further room to swing. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 14 times, Republican 20 times, and other 0 times.
When did Middlesex County, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Middlesex County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1948.
How many people live in Middlesex County, Virginia?
Middlesex County, Virginia has a population of 10,847 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Middlesex County, Virginia?
Median household income in Middlesex County, Virginia is $75,060 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Middlesex County, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Middlesex County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican. The county's typology — "Stable Rural Right" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.