New Kent County, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
20 precincts · 16,807 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -301 - WATKINS301 - WATKINS | 1,173 | 1,440 | 31 | 2,644 | 44.4% | 54.5% | R+10.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -401 - PROVIDENCE FORGE401 - PROVIDENCE FORGE | 1,116 | 1,487 | 32 | 2,635 | 42.4% | 56.4% | R+14.1 |
| Precinct -201 - QUINTON201 - QUINTON | 822 | 1,203 | 21 | 2,046 | 40.2% | 58.8% | R+18.6 |
| Precinct -103 - SOUTHERN BRANCH103 - SOUTHERN BRANCH | 446 | 1,281 | 23 | 1,750 | 25.5% | 73.2% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct -502 - CHICKAHOMINY RIVER502 - CHICKAHOMINY RIVER | 390 | 1,320 | 14 | 1,724 | 22.6% | 76.6% | R+53.9 |
| Precinct -302 - CUMBERLAND302 - CUMBERLAND | 488 | 914 | 19 | 1,421 | 34.3% | 64.3% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct -501 - ELTHAM501 - ELTHAM | 373 | 897 | 16 | 1,286 | 29.0% | 69.8% | R+40.7 |
| Precinct -102 - TUNSTALL102 - TUNSTALL | 244 | 1,018 | 6 | 1,268 | 19.2% | 80.3% | R+61.0 |
| Precinct -202 - KENTWOOD202 - KENTWOOD | 295 | 843 | 18 | 1,156 | 25.5% | 72.9% | R+47.4 |
| Precinct -403 - MOUNTCASTLE403 - MOUNTCASTLE | 294 | 571 | 12 | 877 | 33.5% | 65.1% | R+31.6 |
| Chickahominy River51127000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Cumberland51127000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Eltham51127000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Kentwood51127000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Mountcastle51127000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Providence Forge51127000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Quinton51127000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Southern Branch51127000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Tunstall51127000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Watkins51127000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −16.2% |
| 1896 | −9.4% |
| 1900 | −22.5% |
| 1904 | +25.6% |
| 1908 | +9.6% |
| 1912 | +54.9% |
| 1916 | +46.6% |
| 1920 | +27.1% |
| 1924 | +33.0% |
| 1928 | −9.9% |
| 1932 | +42.1% |
| 1936 | +43.8% |
| 1940 | +36.5% |
| 1944 | +35.1% |
| 1948 | +26.7% |
| 1952 | −6.4% |
| 1956 | −37.7% |
| 1960 | −4.4% |
| 1964 | +29.9% |
| 1968 | +12.6% |
| 1972 | −42.7% |
| 1976 | +3.0% |
| 1980 | −17.6% |
| 1984 | −37.8% |
| 1988 | −34.0% |
| 1992 | −17.7% |
| 1996 | −18.9% |
| 2000 | −30.7% |
| 2004 | −37.4% |
| 2008 | −28.9% |
| 2012 | −33.7% |
| 2016 | −37.4% |
| 2020 | −34.6% |
| 2024 | −31.7% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 14,963 |
| 2018 | 16,013 |
| 2020 | 17,467 |
| 2022 | 18,876 |
| 2024 | 20,613 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+801 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +8,637 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $131,583 in average income, against $165,840 for residents who stayed — 21% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+14.1 on average — 46 points more Democratic-leaning than New Kent County, VA itself (R+31.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Henrico County, VA196D+28.7
- James City County, VA88D+6.2
- Hanover County, VA77R+25.7
- Chesterfield County, VA76D+8.9
- Richmond city, VA55D+65.9
- Newport News city, VA45D+28.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Henrico County, VA112
- Hanover County, VA62
- James City County, VA53
- Richmond city, VA46
- Chesterfield County, VA43
- King William County, VA31
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +174 |
| 2012 | +280 |
| 2013 | +316 |
| 2014 | +432 |
| 2015 | +337 |
| 2016 | +573 |
| 2017 | +555 |
| 2018 | +600 |
| 2019 | +702 |
| 2021 | +884 |
| 2022 | +911 |
| 2023 | +1,123 |
| 2024 | +949 |
| 2025 | +801 |
Wedged between Richmond and Williamsburg along I-64, New Kent has seen steady population growth as commuters arrive, yet its presidential margins have widened rather than narrowed over the past decade, bucking the suburban-shift trend visible in neighboring localities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 54.9 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 42.7 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.9 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.7 points.
A population of 25,105, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $123,314 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Oldham County and Poquoson city.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
New Kent County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51127/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.