HarrisDemocratic45.0%35,747TrumpRepublican53.5%42,531SteinIndependent0.5%372
R+8.5- Lead
- 6,784
- Total
- 79,514
- vs nation
- R+7.1
- Turnout
- 75.8%
Akashiccounty
Spotsylvania County, VA
Contests in this Place (88 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 75.8% of 105,349 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic45.6%34,307TrumpRepublican52.3%39,411JorgensenLibertarian1.7%1,301
R+6.8- Lead
- 5,104
- Total
- 75,317
- vs nation
- R+11.2
- Turnout
- 77.0%
ClintonDemocratic38.7%24,207TrumpRepublican55.4%34,623JohnsonLibertarian3.1%1,910
R+16.7- Lead
- 10,416
- Total
- 62,549
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Turnout
- 67.8%
ObamaDemocratic43.4%25,165RomneyRepublican54.9%31,844OtherAll other candidates1.7%965
R+11.5- Lead
- 6,679
- Total
- 57,974
- vs nation
- R+15.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic46.0%24,897McCainRepublican52.9%28,610OtherAll other candidates1.0%562
R+6.9- Lead
- 3,713
- Total
- 54,069
- vs nation
- R+14.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic36.6%16,623BushRepublican62.8%28,527OtherAll other candidates0.6%295
R+26.2- Lead
- 11,904
- Total
- 45,445
- vs nation
- R+23.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic38.4%13,455BushRepublican59.2%20,739NaderGreen1.7%586
R+20.8- Lead
- 7,284
- Total
- 35,021
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic39.5%10,342DoleRepublican52.6%13,786PerotReform7.1%1,860
R+13.1- Lead
- 3,444
- Total
- 26,197
- vs nation
- R+21.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 146,6032024 5-year
- Population density
- 365 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 402 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $112,7382024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 61.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 16.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 13.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+53.8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+46.6 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Stafford County, VA · twin score 95.1
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 75.8%79,841 participants ÷ 105,349 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +22.3 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- -1.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 53.5%–58.4%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79,841 | 105,349 ± 1,049 | 75.8% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 55,847 | 102,050 ± 895 | 54.7% | Audited | A/A |
| 75,317 | 97,840 ± 798 | 77.0% | Audited | C/A | |
| 2018Mid | 52,290 | 94,626 ± 616 | 55.3% | Audited | A/A |
| 62,549 | 92,210 ± 670 | 67.8% | Audited | C/A | |
| 57,974 | 85,421 | 67.9% | Derived | — | |
| 54,069 | 81,555 | 66.3% | Derived | — | |
| 45,445 | 77,689 extrapolated | 58.5% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Spotsylvania County only. The complete district District 7 result is shown below for comparison.
Spotsylvania County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Doug A. Ollivant0—
Philip A. Harding0—
Rick S. Smithers0—
District District 7 result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 60 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
60 precincts · 79,514 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -103 - JOHN J. WRIGHT103 - JOHN J. WRIGHT | 2,024 | 2,388 | 56 | 4,468 | 45.3% | 53.4% | R+8.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -505 - BROCK ROAD ELEMENTARY505 - BROCK ROAD ELEMENTARY | 1,665 | 2,459 | 39 | 4,163 | 40.0% | 59.1% | R+19.1 |
| Precinct -303 - RIVERBEND HIGH303 - RIVERBEND HIGH | 1,730 | 2,089 | 72 | 3,891 | 44.5% | 53.7% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -202 - FIRE RESCUE 7202 - FIRE RESCUE 7 | 1,451 | 2,302 | 67 | 3,820 | 38.0% | 60.3% | R+22.3 |
| Precinct -704 - COURTLAND ELEMENTARY704 - COURTLAND ELEMENTARY | 1,776 | 1,778 | 47 | 3,601 | 49.3% | 49.4% | R+0.1 |
| Precinct -203 - NI RIVER MIDDLE203 - NI RIVER MIDDLE | 1,403 | 1,988 | 42 | 3,433 | 40.9% | 57.9% | R+17.0 |
| Precinct -302 - SALEM LIBRARY302 - SALEM LIBRARY | 1,814 | 1,550 | 59 | 3,423 | 53.0% | 45.3% | D+7.7 |
| Precinct -403 - LEE HILL ELEMENTARY403 - LEE HILL ELEMENTARY | 1,771 | 1,491 | 52 | 3,314 | 53.4% | 45.0% | D+8.4 |
| Precinct -602 - SMITH STATION ELEMENTARY602 - SMITH STATION ELEMENTARY | 1,769 | 1,449 | 96 | 3,314 | 53.4% | 43.7% | D+9.7 |
| Precinct -204 - CHANCELLOR ELEMENTARY204 - CHANCELLOR ELEMENTARY | 1,483 | 1,619 | 53 | 3,155 | 47.0% | 51.3% | R+4.3 |
| Precinct -402 - GERMANNA CAMPUS402 - GERMANNA CAMPUS | 1,735 | 1,341 | 61 | 3,137 | 55.3% | 42.7% | D+12.6 |
| Precinct -104 - MASSAPONAX HIGH104 - MASSAPONAX HIGH | 1,550 | 1,487 | 48 | 3,085 | 50.2% | 48.2% | D+2.0 |
| Precinct -703 - LEE'S PARKE703 - LEE'S PARKE | 1,862 | 1,119 | 46 | 3,027 | 61.5% | 37.0% | D+24.5 |
| Precinct -504 - PUBLIC SAFETY504 - PUBLIC SAFETY | 1,235 | 1,740 | 44 | 3,019 | 40.9% | 57.6% | R+16.7 |
| Precinct -102 - BERKELEY102 - BERKELEY | 722 | 2,002 | 26 | 2,750 | 26.3% | 72.8% | R+46.5 |
| Precinct -401 - COSNER PARK401 - COSNER PARK | 1,377 | 1,309 | 64 | 2,750 | 50.1% | 47.6% | D+2.5 |
| Precinct -601 - BATTLEFIELD ELEMENTARY601 - BATTLEFIELD ELEMENTARY | 1,323 | 1,330 | 42 | 2,695 | 49.1% | 49.4% | R+0.3 |
| Precinct -702 - EASTLAND CHURCH702 - EASTLAND CHURCH | 1,407 | 1,187 | 47 | 2,641 | 53.3% | 44.9% | D+8.3 |
| Precinct -101 - PARTLOW RURITAN101 - PARTLOW RURITAN | 607 | 1,949 | 34 | 2,590 | 23.4% | 75.3% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct -701 - SPOTSWOOD ELEMENTARY701 - SPOTSWOOD ELEMENTARY | 1,225 | 1,145 | 38 | 2,408 | 50.9% | 47.5% | D+3.3 |
| Precinct -604 - COURTHOUSE ROAD ELEMENTARY604 - COURTHOUSE ROAD ELEMENTARY | 1,186 | 1,062 | 21 | 2,269 | 52.3% | 46.8% | D+5.5 |
| Precinct -501 - BELMONT RURITAN501 - BELMONT RURITAN | 642 | 1,521 | 28 | 2,191 | 29.3% | 69.4% | R+40.1 |
| Precinct -503 - SPOTSYLVANIA HIGH503 - SPOTSYLVANIA HIGH | 530 | 1,624 | 18 | 2,172 | 24.4% | 74.8% | R+50.4 |
| Precinct -301 - SALEM ELEMENTARY301 - SALEM ELEMENTARY | 1,062 | 1,030 | 30 | 2,122 | 50.0% | 48.5% | D+1.5 |
| Precinct -201 - WILDERNESS ELEMENTARY201 - WILDERNESS ELEMENTARY | 924 | 1,117 | 31 | 2,072 | 44.6% | 53.9% | R+9.3 |
| Precinct -502 - FIRE RESCUE 2502 - FIRE RESCUE 2 | 534 | 1,470 | 26 | 2,030 | 26.3% | 72.4% | R+46.1 |
| Precinct -603 - CHANCELLOR HIGH603 - CHANCELLOR HIGH | 940 | 985 | 49 | 1,974 | 47.6% | 49.9% | R+2.3 |
| Battlefield51177000701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Belmont51177000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blaydes Corner51177000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brents Mill (CD 01)51177000702 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brents Mill (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brock51177000505 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Brokenburg51177000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Chancellor51177000204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Courthouse51177000504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fairview (CD 01)51177000703 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Fairview (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gayle (CD 01)51177000704 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gayle (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Hazel Run51177000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Lee Hill51177000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Massaponax51177000104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ni River / Elys Ford51177000203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Parkside (CD 01)51177000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Parkside (CD 07)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Partlow51177000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Piedmont51177000603 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Plank Road51177000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Post Oak51177000503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -304 - KNIGHTS OF PYTHIAS LODGE304 - KNIGHTS OF PYTHIAS LODGE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -404 - FIRE RESCUE 11404 - FIRE RESCUE 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Riverbend51177000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Salem51177000601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Smith Station51177000602 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Summit51177000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Travelers Rest (CD 01)2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Travelers Rest (CD 07)51177000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilderness Fire51177000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Wilderness School51177000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Spotsylvania County, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
68.4%
784 votes · D+38.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 68.0%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
72.3%
6,409 votes · R+46.6
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 66.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
35,747votes
45.0% of the vote · R+8.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 34,307 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
42,531votes
53.5% of the vote · R+8.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 39,411 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+51.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+26.2 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +35.7 pts
Republican
George H. W. Bush1988
+25.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+33.1 · U.S. R+7.7
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +23.7 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RRichard StuartState Senate · 25
RTara DurantState Senate · 27
RBryce ReevesState Senate · 28
RPhil ScottState House · 63
DNicole ColeState House · 66
Seats representing Spotsylvania County, VA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 3 state senate and 2 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 88,672 |
| 2018 | 90,944 |
| 2020 | 99,199 |
| 2022 | 104,996 |
| 2024 | 110,817 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2,199 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +16,690 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,938 in average income, against $92,885 for residents who stayed — 21% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+14.3 on average — 23 points more Democratic-leaning than Spotsylvania County, VA itself (R+8.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Stafford County, VA837D+0.8
- Fredericksburg city, VA635D+31.5
- Prince William County, VA576D+17.9
- Fairfax County, VA333D+34.7
- Caroline County, VA189R+8.8
- Orange County, VA147R+24.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Fredericksburg city, VA564
- Stafford County, VA525
- Caroline County, VA297
- Prince William County, VA223
- Orange County, VA181
- Fairfax County, VA179
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +558 |
| 2012 | +310 |
| 2013 | +640 |
| 2014 | +485 |
| 2015 | +223 |
| 2016 | +448 |
| 2017 | +807 |
| 2018 | +739 |
| 2019 | +1,711 |
| 2021 | +3,038 |
| 2022 | +2,110 |
| 2023 | +2,044 |
| 2024 | +1,378 |
| 2025 | +2,199 |
Spotsylvania sits along the Interstate 95 corridor south of Fredericksburg, where rapid population growth driven by D.C.-area transplants has gradually compressed what were once double-digit Republican margins in presidential races.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 53.8 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 46.6 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.5 points.
A population of 146,603, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $112,738 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Stafford County and Frederick County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Stafford County
Virginia
95.1twin score
12-yr trendelasticity2020–2024 trajectory≠ median income
Frederick County
Maryland
91.2twin score
median income12-yr trendelasticity≠ % Evangelical
Chesapeake city
Virginia
87.2twin score
12-yr trend2024 marginelasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Spotsylvania County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51177/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Spotsylvania County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Spotsylvania County, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Spotsylvania County, Virginia voted Republican by 8.5 points (R+8.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 79,514 votes cast, 35,747 went Democratic and 42,531 went Republican.
When did Spotsylvania County, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Spotsylvania County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Spotsylvania County, Virginia?
Spotsylvania County, Virginia has a population of 146,603 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Spotsylvania County, Virginia?
Median household income in Spotsylvania County, Virginia is $112,738 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Spotsylvania County, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Spotsylvania County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.