Stafford County, Virginia
Precinct data
Results by precinct
64 precincts · 83,539 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -704 - POOLE704 - POOLE | 2,524 | 1,676 | 100 | 4,300 | 58.7% | 39.0% | D+19.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -101 - HARTWOOD101 - HARTWOOD | 1,318 | 2,470 | 61 | 3,849 | 34.2% | 64.2% | R+29.9 |
| Precinct -501 - GRAFTON501 - GRAFTON | 1,702 | 2,015 | 71 | 3,788 | 44.9% | 53.2% | R+8.3 |
| Precinct -605 - MELCHERS605 - MELCHERS | 2,040 | 1,362 | 61 | 3,463 | 58.9% | 39.3% | D+19.6 |
| Precinct -201 - ROCK HILL201 - ROCK HILL | 1,620 | 1,636 | 87 | 3,343 | 48.5% | 48.9% | R+0.5 |
| Precinct -405 - HOPE405 - HOPE | 1,616 | 1,593 | 64 | 3,273 | 49.4% | 48.7% | D+0.7 |
| Precinct -703 - HAMPTON703 - HAMPTON | 1,695 | 1,442 | 62 | 3,199 | 53.0% | 45.1% | D+7.9 |
| Precinct -503 - DREW503 - DREW | 1,603 | 1,530 | 56 | 3,189 | 50.3% | 48.0% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -603 - WHITE OAK603 - WHITE OAK | 951 | 1,982 | 56 | 2,989 | 31.8% | 66.3% | R+34.5 |
| Precinct -701 - PARK RIDGE701 - PARK RIDGE | 1,644 | 1,269 | 54 | 2,967 | 55.4% | 42.8% | D+12.6 |
| Precinct -602 - CHATHAM602 - CHATHAM | 1,321 | 1,447 | 71 | 2,839 | 46.5% | 51.0% | R+4.4 |
| Precinct -204 - STEFANIGA204 - STEFANIGA | 1,362 | 1,385 | 62 | 2,809 | 48.5% | 49.3% | R+0.8 |
| Precinct -202 - ROSEVILLE202 - ROSEVILLE | 1,031 | 1,666 | 50 | 2,747 | 37.5% | 60.6% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct -102 - SIMPSON102 - SIMPSON | 1,140 | 1,519 | 46 | 2,705 | 42.1% | 56.2% | R+14.0 |
| Precinct -401 - COURTHOUSE401 - COURTHOUSE | 1,691 | 812 | 57 | 2,560 | 66.1% | 31.7% | D+34.3 |
| Precinct -502 - FALMOUTH502 - FALMOUTH | 1,311 | 1,164 | 55 | 2,530 | 51.8% | 46.0% | D+5.8 |
| Precinct -601 - FERRY FARM601 - FERRY FARM | 985 | 1,328 | 62 | 2,375 | 41.5% | 55.9% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -504 - GAYLE504 - GAYLE | 1,438 | 874 | 44 | 2,356 | 61.0% | 37.1% | D+23.9 |
| Precinct -103 - COLLEGE103 - COLLEGE | 1,221 | 1,038 | 41 | 2,300 | 53.1% | 45.1% | D+8.0 |
| Precinct -203 - RUBY203 - RUBY | 723 | 1,490 | 41 | 2,254 | 32.1% | 66.1% | R+34.0 |
| Precinct -404 - GOVERNMENT ISLAND404 - GOVERNMENT ISLAND | 1,014 | 1,129 | 53 | 2,196 | 46.2% | 51.4% | R+5.2 |
| Precinct -702 - WHITSON702 - WHITSON | 1,204 | 763 | 51 | 2,018 | 59.7% | 37.8% | D+21.9 |
| Precinct -302 - WIDEWATER302 - WIDEWATER | 834 | 992 | 41 | 1,867 | 44.7% | 53.1% | R+8.5 |
| Precinct -306 - MIDWAY306 - MIDWAY | 1,150 | 628 | 47 | 1,825 | 63.0% | 34.4% | D+28.6 |
| Precinct -402 - BROOKE402 - BROOKE | 730 | 1,053 | 28 | 1,811 | 40.3% | 58.1% | R+17.8 |
| Precinct -104 - WESTLAKE104 - WESTLAKE | 590 | 1,151 | 37 | 1,778 | 33.2% | 64.7% | R+31.6 |
| Precinct -403 - HARBOUR403 - HARBOUR | 804 | 864 | 39 | 1,707 | 47.1% | 50.6% | R+3.5 |
| Precinct -105 - ROCKY RUN105 - ROCKY RUN | 712 | 631 | 39 | 1,382 | 51.5% | 45.7% | D+5.9 |
| Precinct -301 - STAFFORDBORO301 - STAFFORDBORO | 851 | 495 | 30 | 1,376 | 61.8% | 36.0% | D+25.9 |
| Precinct -106 - FORGE106 - FORGE | 717 | 587 | 33 | 1,337 | 53.6% | 43.9% | D+9.7 |
| Precinct -303 - BARRETT HEIGHTS303 - BARRETT HEIGHTS | 692 | 590 | 26 | 1,308 | 52.9% | 45.1% | D+7.8 |
| Precinct -205 - MOUNT ARARAT205 - MOUNT ARARAT | 620 | 495 | 20 | 1,135 | 54.6% | 43.6% | D+11.0 |
| Precinct -604 - ENGLAND RUN604 - ENGLAND RUN | 650 | 410 | 18 | 1,078 | 60.3% | 38.0% | D+22.3 |
| Precinct -505 - ESKIMO HILL505 - ESKIMO HILL | 416 | 435 | 10 | 861 | 48.3% | 50.5% | R+2.2 |
| Precinct -305 - GRIFFIS305 - GRIFFIS | 495 | 283 | 9 | 787 | 62.9% | 36.0% | D+26.9 |
| Precinct -304 - AQUIA EPISCOPAL304 - AQUIA EPISCOPAL | 526 | 241 | 9 | 776 | 67.8% | 31.1% | D+36.7 |
| Precinct -406 - AQUIA406 - AQUIA | 311 | 145 | 6 | 462 | 67.3% | 31.4% | D+35.9 |
| Aquia51179000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Barrett51179000304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Brooke51179000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Chatham51179000602 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| College51179000104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Courthouse51179000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Drew51179000503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| England Run51179000604 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Falmouth51179000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Ferry Farm51179000601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Gayle51179000504 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Government Island51179000404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Grafton51179000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Griffis51179000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Hampton51179000703 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Harbour51179000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Hartwood51179000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Rock Hill51179000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Rocky Run51179000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Roseville51179000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Ruby51179000203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Simpson51179000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Stefaniga51179000204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| White Oak51179000603 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Whitson51179000702 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Widewater51179000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Woodlands51179000701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +14.0% |
| 1896 | −26.5% |
| 1900 | −14.4% |
| 1904 | −12.0% |
| 1908 | −7.7% |
| 1912 | +30.6% |
| 1916 | +2.5% |
| 1920 | −13.2% |
| 1924 | +1.8% |
| 1928 | −28.8% |
| 1932 | +23.3% |
| 1936 | +4.4% |
| 1940 | +26.8% |
| 1944 | −1.1% |
| 1948 | −1.5% |
| 1952 | −13.3% |
| 1956 | −22.1% |
| 1960 | +1.6% |
| 1964 | +25.6% |
| 1968 | −13.5% |
| 1972 | −35.9% |
| 1976 | +4.7% |
| 1980 | −24.0% |
| 1984 | −39.7% |
| 1988 | −38.7% |
| 1992 | −19.3% |
| 1996 | −16.1% |
| 2000 | −23.8% |
| 2004 | −24.6% |
| 2008 | −6.3% |
| 2012 | −8.7% |
| 2016 | −9.0% |
| 2020 | +3.3% |
| 2024 | +0.8% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 90,512 |
| 2018 | 95,708 |
| 2020 | 105,714 |
| 2022 | 110,935 |
| 2024 | 118,433 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+725 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +17,701 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $72,184 in average income, against $106,136 for residents who stayed — 32% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+19.1 on average — 18 points more Democratic-leaning than Stafford County, VA itself (D+0.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Prince William County, VA1,370D+17.9
- Fairfax County, VA654D+34.7
- Spotsylvania County, VA525R+8.5
- Fredericksburg city, VA303D+31.5
- Alexandria city, VA120D+57.1
- San Diego County, CA101D+16.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Spotsylvania County, VA837
- Prince William County, VA582
- Fredericksburg city, VA384
- Fairfax County, VA338
- Caroline County, VA159
- King George County, VA117
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +1,106 |
| 2012 | −389 |
| 2013 | +1,254 |
| 2014 | +1,445 |
| 2015 | +570 |
| 2016 | +1,306 |
| 2017 | +2,088 |
| 2018 | +1,995 |
| 2019 | +2,018 |
| 2021 | +2,883 |
| 2022 | +331 |
| 2023 | +1,026 |
| 2024 | +1,343 |
| 2025 | +725 |
Stafford sits along the I-95 corridor south of Washington, drawing a fast-growing mix of federal workers and military families whose shifting composition has turned a once reliably red county into a genuine toss-up.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 30.6 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 39.7 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 0.8 points.
A population of 163,466, a 52% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $137,807 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Spotsylvania County and Frederick County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Stafford County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51179/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.