HarrisDemocratic64.5%8,760TrumpRepublican33.0%4,480SteinIndependent0.7%94
D+31.5- Lead
- 4,280
- Total
- 13,578
- vs nation
- D+33.0
- Turnout
- 64.5%
Akashiccounty
Fredericksburg city, VA
Contests in this Place (88 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 64.5% of 21,124 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic66.2%8,517TrumpRepublican31.4%4,037JorgensenLibertarian1.9%240
D+34.8- Lead
- 4,480
- Total
- 12,862
- vs nation
- D+30.4
- Turnout
- 60.2%
ClintonDemocratic59.6%6,707TrumpRepublican33.3%3,744JohnsonLibertarian3.5%389
D+26.3- Lead
- 2,963
- Total
- 11,257
- vs nation
- D+24.2
- Turnout
- 53.9%
ObamaDemocratic62.4%7,131RomneyRepublican35.5%4,060OtherAll other candidates2.2%246
D+26.9- Lead
- 3,071
- Total
- 11,437
- vs nation
- D+23.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic63.6%6,155McCainRepublican35.3%3,413OtherAll other candidates1.1%109
D+28.3- Lead
- 2,742
- Total
- 9,677
- vs nation
- D+21.1
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic54.2%4,085BushRepublican44.9%3,390OtherAll other candidates0.9%67
D+9.2- Lead
- 695
- Total
- 7,542
- vs nation
- D+11.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.3%3,360BushRepublican43.9%2,935NaderGreen4.9%326
D+6.4- Lead
- 425
- Total
- 6,681
- vs nation
- D+5.8
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic52.2%3,215DoleRepublican41.8%2,579PerotReform4.9%300
D+10.3- Lead
- 636
- Total
- 6,164
- vs nation
- D+1.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+31.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 28,8732024 5-year
- Population density
- 2,750 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 10.5 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $86,0712024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 54.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 19.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+64.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+26.6 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Charlottesville city, VA · twin score 88.2
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 64.5%13,634 participants ÷ 21,124 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +14.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -8.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 49.7%–53.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13,634 | 21,124 ± 460 | 64.5% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 9,435 | 20,772 ± 490 | 45.4% | Audited | A/A |
| 13,002 | 21,581 ± 517 | 60.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 9,821 | 21,295 ± 435 | 46.1% | Audited | A/A |
| 11,308 | 20,995 ± 491 | 53.9% | Audited | A/A | |
| 11,437 | 18,712 | 61.1% | Derived | — | |
| 9,677 | 16,763 | 57.7% | Derived | — | |
| 7,542 | 14,814 extrapolated | 50.9% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Fredericksburg city only. The complete district District 7 result is shown below for comparison.
Fredericksburg city result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Doug A. Ollivant0—
Philip A. Harding0—
Rick S. Smithers0—
District District 7 result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 10 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
10 precincts · 13,578 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -301 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT THREE301 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT THREE | 2,261 | 1,339 | 105 | 3,705 | 61.0% | 36.1% | D+24.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -201 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT TWO201 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT TWO | 2,248 | 954 | 77 | 3,279 | 68.6% | 29.1% | D+39.5 |
| Precinct -101 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT ONE101 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT ONE | 1,841 | 1,227 | 75 | 3,143 | 58.6% | 39.0% | D+19.5 |
| Precinct -401 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT FOUR401 - PRECINCT 1 - DISTRICT FOUR | 1,337 | 471 | 45 | 1,853 | 72.2% | 25.4% | D+46.7 |
| Precinct -402 - PRECINCT 2 - DISTRICT FOUR402 - PRECINCT 2 - DISTRICT FOUR | 1,073 | 489 | 36 | 1,598 | 67.1% | 30.6% | D+36.5 |
| District 151630000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| District 251630000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| District 351630000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| District 4 - Precinct 151630000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| District 4 - Precinct 251630000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Fredericksburg city, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Alton B. Parker1904
73.3%
352 votes · D+47.5
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1912 · 73.1%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
61.2%
1,536 votes · R+22.5
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · 60.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
8,760votes
64.5% of the vote · D+31.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 8,517 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
4,480votes
33.0% of the vote · D+31.5
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 4,060 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Alton B. Parker1904
+67.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+47.5 · U.S. R+19.7
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +66.6 pts
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
+11.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+22.5 · U.S. R+10.8
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1956 · +11.2 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RTara DurantState Senate · 27
DJosh ColeState House · 65
Seats representing Fredericksburg city, VA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 17,352 |
| 2018 | 18,036 |
| 2020 | 18,548 |
| 2022 | 19,323 |
| 2024 | 20,838 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−53 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +1,967 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $62,165 in average income, against $107,185 for residents who stayed — 42% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+3.4 on average — 28 points more Republican-leaning than Fredericksburg city, VA itself (D+31.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Spotsylvania County, VA564R+8.5
- Stafford County, VA384D+0.8
- Prince William County, VA147D+17.9
- Fairfax County, VA95D+34.7
- King George County, VA65R+24.9
- Caroline County, VA47R+8.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Spotsylvania County, VA635
- Stafford County, VA303
- Prince William County, VA91
- Caroline County, VA65
- Fairfax County, VA65
- Richmond city, VA58
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +1,058 |
| 2012 | +1,015 |
| 2013 | +347 |
| 2014 | +56 |
| 2015 | −559 |
| 2016 | +8 |
| 2017 | −157 |
| 2018 | +348 |
| 2019 | −399 |
| 2021 | +226 |
| 2022 | −90 |
| 2023 | +7 |
| 2024 | +160 |
| 2025 | −53 |
Home to the University of Mary Washington, Fredericksburg votes at the bluest end of Virginia's independent cities, with the 2024 presidential margin exceeding 30 points — a gap rooted in its dense concentration of students, educators, and young renters.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 64.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 26.6 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.5 points.
A population of 28,873, a 55% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $86,071 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Charlottesville city and Winchester city.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Charlottesville city
Virginia
88.2twin score
2000–2012 trajectory12-yr trendmedian age≠ 2004 margin
Winchester city
Virginia
87.1twin score
12-yr trend2020–2024 trajectoryelasticity≠ % Evangelical
Falls Church city
Virginia
87.1twin score
% Catholic% unaffiliated2020–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Fredericksburg city, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51630/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Fredericksburg city
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Frequently asked questions
How did Fredericksburg city, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Fredericksburg city, Virginia voted Democratic by 31.5 points (D+31.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 13,578 votes cast, 8,760 went Democratic and 4,480 went Republican.
When did Fredericksburg city, Virginia last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Fredericksburg city, Virginia voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Fredericksburg city, Virginia?
Fredericksburg city, Virginia has a population of 28,873 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Fredericksburg city, Virginia?
Median household income in Fredericksburg city, Virginia is $86,071 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Fredericksburg city, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Fredericksburg city, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 25 went Democratic and 9 went Republican.