HarrisDemocratic35.1%18,331TrumpRepublican63.4%33,117OtherAll other candidates0.4%223
R+28.3- Lead
- 14,786
- Total
- 52,263
- vs nation
- R+26.8
- Turnout
- 74.5%
Akashiccounty
Frederick County, VA
Contests in this Place (87 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 74.5% of 69,869 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic35.3%17,207TrumpRepublican62.7%30,558JorgensenLibertarian1.6%781
R+27.4- Lead
- 13,351
- Total
- 48,703
- vs nation
- R+31.9
- Turnout
- 76.0%
ClintonDemocratic29.5%11,932TrumpRepublican64.5%26,083JohnsonLibertarian3.2%1,280
R+35.0- Lead
- 14,151
- Total
- 40,440
- vs nation
- R+37.1
- Turnout
- 67.4%
ObamaDemocratic34.9%12,690RomneyRepublican62.8%22,858OtherAll other candidates2.3%846
R+27.9- Lead
- 10,168
- Total
- 36,394
- vs nation
- R+31.8
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic38.6%12,961McCainRepublican59.9%20,149OtherAll other candidates1.5%502
R+21.4- Lead
- 7,188
- Total
- 33,612
- vs nation
- R+28.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic31.0%8,853BushRepublican67.9%19,386OtherAll other candidates1.1%301
R+36.9- Lead
- 10,533
- Total
- 28,540
- vs nation
- R+34.4
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic32.0%7,158BushRepublican65.1%14,574NaderGreen2.2%483
R+33.1- Lead
- 7,416
- Total
- 22,392
- vs nation
- R+33.6
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic32.5%5,976DoleRepublican57.6%10,608PerotReform8.7%1,599
R+25.2- Lead
- 4,632
- Total
- 18,412
- vs nation
- R+33.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+28.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 95,0082024 5-year
- Population density
- 230 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 413 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $97,6062024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 77.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 4.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 12.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+60.0 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56.0 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Hendricks County, IN · twin score 87.7
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 74.5%52,040 participants ÷ 69,869 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +25.4 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- +1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 49.1%–55.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52,040 | 69,869 ± 630 | 74.5% | Audited | C/A | |
| 2022Mid | 33,853 | 66,952 ± 569 | 50.6% | Audited | A/A |
| 49,080 | 64,612 ± 539 | 76.0% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 34,475 | 62,319 ± 478 | 55.3% | Audited | A/A |
| 40,575 | 60,243 ± 434 | 67.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 36,394 | 56,360 | 64.6% | Derived | — | |
| 33,612 | 51,537 | 65.2% | Derived | — | |
| 28,540 | 46,714 extrapolated | 61.1% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Frederick County only. The complete district Class 2 result is shown below for comparison.
Frederick County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Bert Mizusawa0—
David E. Williams0—
Kim Farington0—
District Class 2 result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 50 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
50 precincts · 52,263 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -203 - REDLAND203 - REDLAND | 873 | 2,069 | 36 | 2,978 | 29.3% | 69.5% | R+40.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -402 - SHENANDOAH402 - SHENANDOAH | 1,172 | 1,605 | 39 | 2,816 | 41.6% | 57.0% | R+15.4 |
| Precinct -503 - CANTERBURG503 - CANTERBURG | 1,222 | 1,521 | 40 | 2,783 | 43.9% | 54.7% | R+10.7 |
| Precinct -303 - JORDAN SPRINGS303 - JORDAN SPRINGS | 1,258 | 1,422 | 54 | 2,734 | 46.0% | 52.0% | R+6.0 |
| Precinct -603 - GREENWOOD603 - GREENWOOD | 1,136 | 1,521 | 62 | 2,719 | 41.8% | 55.9% | R+14.2 |
| Precinct -102 - GORE102 - GORE | 600 | 1,918 | 34 | 2,552 | 23.5% | 75.2% | R+51.6 |
| Precinct -101 - RUSSELLS101 - RUSSELLS | 642 | 1,849 | 39 | 2,530 | 25.4% | 73.1% | R+47.7 |
| Precinct -103 - KERNSTOWN103 - KERNSTOWN | 892 | 1,571 | 42 | 2,505 | 35.6% | 62.7% | R+27.1 |
| Precinct -504 - VAUCLUSE SPRING504 - VAUCLUSE SPRING | 780 | 1,453 | 19 | 2,252 | 34.6% | 64.5% | R+29.9 |
| Precinct -403 - PARKINS MILL403 - PARKINS MILL | 842 | 1,346 | 41 | 2,229 | 37.8% | 60.4% | R+22.6 |
| Precinct -602 - ASH HOLLOW602 - ASH HOLLOW | 906 | 1,206 | 50 | 2,162 | 41.9% | 55.8% | R+13.9 |
| Precinct -404 - WHITE OAK SCHOOL404 - WHITE OAK SCHOOL | 805 | 1,217 | 30 | 2,052 | 39.2% | 59.3% | R+20.1 |
| Precinct -601 - MILLBROOK601 - MILLBROOK | 757 | 1,254 | 26 | 2,037 | 37.2% | 61.6% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -202 - ALBIN202 - ALBIN | 586 | 1,386 | 39 | 2,011 | 29.1% | 68.9% | R+39.8 |
| Precinct -301 - CLEAR BROOK301 - CLEAR BROOK | 440 | 1,520 | 18 | 1,978 | 22.2% | 76.8% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -401 - ARMEL401 - ARMEL | 667 | 1,115 | 37 | 1,819 | 36.7% | 61.3% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -502 - BASS-HOOVER502 - BASS-HOOVER | 651 | 1,141 | 17 | 1,809 | 36.0% | 63.1% | R+27.1 |
| Precinct -204 - NAIN204 - NAIN | 524 | 1,155 | 19 | 1,698 | 30.9% | 68.0% | R+37.2 |
| Precinct -201 - GAINESBOROUGH201 - GAINESBOROUGH | 333 | 1,276 | 17 | 1,626 | 20.5% | 78.5% | R+58.0 |
| Precinct -501 - STEPHENS CITY501 - STEPHENS CITY | 500 | 773 | 21 | 1,294 | 38.6% | 59.7% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -205 - WHITE HALL205 - WHITE HALL | 367 | 898 | 18 | 1,283 | 28.6% | 70.0% | R+41.4 |
| Precinct -505 - AYLOR505 - AYLOR | 496 | 766 | 19 | 1,281 | 38.7% | 59.8% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -305 - SUNNYSIDE305 - SUNNYSIDE | 511 | 575 | 21 | 1,107 | 46.2% | 51.9% | R+5.8 |
| Precinct -105 - MIDDLETOWN105 - MIDDLETOWN | 350 | 544 | 25 | 919 | 38.1% | 59.2% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -104 - CEDAR CREEK104 - CEDAR CREEK | 209 | 684 | 13 | 906 | 23.1% | 75.5% | R+52.4 |
| Precinct -604 - CARPERS VALLEY604 - CARPERS VALLEY | 216 | 459 | 13 | 688 | 31.4% | 66.7% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -304 - GIBSON SCHOOL304 - GIBSON SCHOOL | 316 | 354 | 11 | 681 | 46.4% | 52.0% | R+5.6 |
| Precinct -302 - NEFFS TOWN302 - NEFFS TOWN | 220 | 358 | 8 | 586 | 37.5% | 61.1% | R+23.5 |
| Precinct -605 - SULPHUR SPRING605 - SULPHUR SPRING | 60 | 161 | 7 | 228 | 26.3% | 70.6% | R+44.3 |
| Albin51069000202 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Armel51069000404 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Ash Hollow51069000602 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Canterburg51069000503 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Carpers Valley51069000401 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cedar Creek51069000104 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Clear Brook51069000301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gainesborough51069000201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Gore51069000102 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Greenwood51069000603 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Kernstown51069000103 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Millbrook51069000601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Nain51069000204 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Neff's Town51069000302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Newtown51069000502 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Parkin's Mill51069000403 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Redland51069000203 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Russells51069000101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shenandoah51069000402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Stephens City51069000501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| White Hall51069000303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Frederick County, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
76.2%
1,536 votes · D+53.6
Runner-up · Woodrow Wilson, 1916 · 75.5%
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
77.8%
9,542 votes · R+56.0
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 75.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
18,331votes
35.1% of the vote · R+28.3
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 17,207 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
33,117votes
63.4% of the vote · R+28.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 30,558 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+70.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+45.4 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Alton B. Parker, 1904 · +64.8 pts
Republican
Ronald Reagan1984
+37.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+56.0 · U.S. R+18.2
Runner-up · George H. W. Bush, 1988 · +37.6 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RTimmy FrenchState Senate · 1
RDelores OatesState House · 31
RBill WileyState House · 32
Seats representing Frederick County, VA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 2 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 56,285 |
| 2018 | 59,177 |
| 2020 | 64,271 |
| 2022 | 67,547 |
| 2024 | 72,392 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,621 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +14,754 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $77,640 in average income, against $91,211 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+0.6 on average — 29 points more Democratic-leaning than Frederick County, VA itself (R+28.3).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Winchester city, VA607D+9.7
- Loudoun County, VA356D+16.2
- Fairfax County, VA242D+34.7
- Warren County, VA191R+37.4
- Berkeley County, WV167R+35.8
- Prince William County, VA151D+17.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Winchester city, VA498
- Berkeley County, WV343
- Shenandoah County, VA163
- Loudoun County, VA148
- Warren County, VA128
- Fairfax County, VA105
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +550 |
| 2012 | +360 |
| 2013 | +894 |
| 2014 | +829 |
| 2015 | +448 |
| 2016 | +752 |
| 2017 | +1,393 |
| 2018 | +1,410 |
| 2019 | +943 |
| 2021 | +2,115 |
| 2022 | +816 |
| 2023 | +1,069 |
| 2024 | +1,554 |
| 2025 | +1,621 |
Frederick County sits at Virginia's northwestern gateway, where exurban growth from the D.C. corridor meets longstanding rural conservatism. Its 2024 margin of R+28.4 reflects a pattern of deepening Republican strength that has held across multiple election cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 60.0 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 56.0 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 0.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 28.3 points.
A population of 95,008, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $97,606 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Hendricks County and Hancock County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Hendricks County
Indiana
87.7twin score
median incomeelasticity2000–2004 trajectory≠ 12-yr trend
Hancock County
Indiana
87.5twin score
median income12-yr trendelasticity≠ Italian ancestry
Johnson County
Indiana
84.7twin score
12-yr trendmedian income2000 margin≠ Italian ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Frederick County, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51069/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Frederick County
Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Frederick County, Virginia vote in 2024?
In 2024, Frederick County, Virginia voted Republican by 28.3 points (R+28.3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 52,263 votes cast, 18,331 went Democratic and 33,117 went Republican.
When did Frederick County, Virginia last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Frederick County, Virginia voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Frederick County, Virginia?
Frederick County, Virginia has a population of 95,008 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Frederick County, Virginia?
Median household income in Frederick County, Virginia is $97,606 — above the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.
What is the political history of Frederick County, Virginia?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Frederick County, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.