Tucson-Nogales, AZ · how this place’s counties split between candidates in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain and there is no roll-up above it. Each cell counts how many of this place’s counties a candidate led — a count of records, not a vote total. Who led the place as a whole is not knowable from these returns, because county rows carry a leader and a lead but no per-candidate votes.
Presidential nominating contests in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+9.0
vs
Presidential vote · 2024D+15.3
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 6.3 points more Democratic than the rolls.
Domestic migration in Tucson-Nogales, AZ in Tucson-Nogales, AZ: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+639
2012
−1,398
2013
−2,652
2014
+16
2015
−1,465
2016
+2,206
2017
+5,812
2018
+7,475
2019
+8,544
2021
+5,333
2022
+8,063
2023
+3,795
2024
+3,826
2025
−511
Tucson-Nogales, AZ sits in the desert Southwest. In 2024 it voted Democratic.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.9 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 24.8 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the region moved 3.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 15.3 points.
A population of 1,109,416, a 49% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,649 describe the region. The region's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Albuquerque-Santa Fe-Los Alamos, NM and Edwards-Rifle, CO.
Akashic
Political twins — combined metros
The combined metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/csa/536/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
In 2024, Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 15.3 points (D+15.3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 532,297 votes cast, 303,715 went Democratic and 222,368 went Republican.
When did Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona has a population of 1,109,416 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona is $69,649 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Tucson-Nogales, AZ, Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 13 went Republican.
