Santa Cruz County, Arizona
Precinct data
Results by precinct
48 precincts · 19,153 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -RIO RICO 07RIO RICO 07 | 1,865 | 1,613 | 39 | 3,517 | 53.0% | 45.9% | D+7.2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CALABASAS 17CALABASAS 17 | 1,446 | 979 | 29 | 2,454 | 58.9% | 39.9% | D+19.0 |
| Precinct -BACA 19BACA 19 | 1,308 | 799 | 27 | 2,134 | 61.3% | 37.4% | D+23.9 |
| Precinct -TUBAC 11TUBAC 11 | 1,284 | 741 | 16 | 2,041 | 62.9% | 36.3% | D+26.6 |
| Precinct -PECK CANYON 21PECK CANYON 21 | 990 | 655 | 18 | 1,663 | 59.5% | 39.4% | D+20.1 |
| Precinct -CORONADO 05CORONADO 05 | 685 | 361 | 7 | 1,053 | 65.1% | 34.3% | D+30.8 |
| Precinct -SONOITA 15SONOITA 15 | 299 | 620 | 10 | 929 | 32.2% | 66.7% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct -PATAGONIA 14PATAGONIA 14 | 586 | 279 | 12 | 877 | 66.8% | 31.8% | D+35.0 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 20NOGALES 20 | 498 | 198 | 2 | 698 | 71.3% | 28.4% | D+43.0 |
| Precinct -ELGIN 06ELGIN 06 | 241 | 393 | 11 | 645 | 37.4% | 60.9% | R+23.6 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 03NOGALES 03 | 367 | 165 | 4 | 536 | 68.5% | 30.8% | D+37.7 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 18NOGALES 18 | 336 | 167 | 6 | 509 | 66.0% | 32.8% | D+33.2 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 12NOGALES 12 | 284 | 108 | 2 | 394 | 72.1% | 27.4% | D+44.7 |
| Precinct -SANTA CRUZ 13SANTA CRUZ 13 | 190 | 155 | 6 | 351 | 54.1% | 44.2% | D+10.0 |
| Precinct -POTRERO 22POTRERO 22 | 208 | 113 | 2 | 323 | 64.4% | 35.0% | D+29.4 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 09NOGALES 09 | 180 | 97 | 6 | 283 | 63.6% | 34.3% | D+29.3 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 16NOGALES 16 | 188 | 88 | 2 | 278 | 67.6% | 31.7% | D+36.0 |
| Precinct -NOGALES 04NOGALES 04 | 198 | 69 | 4 | 271 | 73.1% | 25.5% | D+47.6 |
| Precinct -LAKE PATAGONIA 24LAKE PATAGONIA 24 | 80 | 71 | 0 | 151 | 53.0% | 47.0% | D+6.0 |
| Precinct -MOUNTAIN 23MOUNTAIN 23 | 21 | 25 | 0 | 46 | 45.7% | 54.3% | R+8.7 |
| Baca 19 Voting District04_0402319 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Calabasas 17 Voting District04_0402317 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Coronado 5 Voting District04_0402305 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Elgin 6 Voting District04_0402306 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Lake Patagonia 24 Voting District04_0402324 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Mountain 23 Voting District04_0402323 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 1 Voting District04_0402301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 10 Voting District04_0402310 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 12 Voting District04_0402312 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 16 Voting District04_0402316 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 18 Voting District04_0402318 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 2 Voting District04_0402302 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 20 Voting District04_0402320 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 3 Voting District04_0402303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 4 Voting District04_0402304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 8 Voting District04_0402308 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Nogales 9 Voting District04_0402309 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Patagonia 14 Voting District04_0402314 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Peck Canyon 21 Voting District04_0402321 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Potrero 22 Voting District04_0402322 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct -NOGALES 01NOGALES 01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct -NOGALES 02NOGALES 02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct -NOGALES 08NOGALES 08 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Precinct -NOGALES 10NOGALES 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Rio Rico 7 Voting District04_0402307 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Santa Cruz 13 Voting District04_0402313 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Sonoita 15 Voting District04_0402315 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
| Tubac 11 Voting District04_0402311 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | Even |
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1912 | +41.4% |
| 1916 | +4.2% |
| 1920 | −9.3% |
| 1924 | +6.5% |
| 1928 | +2.3% |
| 1932 | +43.4% |
| 1936 | +39.0% |
| 1940 | +22.2% |
| 1944 | +27.9% |
| 1948 | +14.5% |
| 1952 | −11.4% |
| 1956 | −18.5% |
| 1960 | +19.2% |
| 1964 | +13.1% |
| 1968 | −4.1% |
| 1972 | −6.6% |
| 1976 | −1.0% |
| 1980 | −11.0% |
| 1984 | −21.8% |
| 1988 | −0.8% |
| 1992 | +6.0% |
| 1996 | +36.5% |
| 2000 | +21.2% |
| 2004 | +19.2% |
| 2008 | +31.3% |
| 2012 | +37.7% |
| 2016 | +47.4% |
| 2020 | +35.5% |
| 2024 | +18.6% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 4.5 points more Democratic.
32,699 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−161 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −5,048 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $58,108 in average income, against $59,335 for residents who stayed — 2% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+11.3 on average — 7.3 points more Republican-leaning than Santa Cruz County, AZ itself (D+18.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Pima County, AZ446D+15.2
- Maricopa County, AZ158R+3.5
- Los Angeles County, CA23D+32.9
- San Diego County, CA23D+16.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Pima County, AZ574
- Maricopa County, AZ213
- Cochise County, AZ25
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −261 |
| 2012 | −715 |
| 2013 | −855 |
| 2014 | −787 |
| 2015 | −718 |
| 2016 | −557 |
| 2017 | −264 |
| 2018 | −551 |
| 2019 | −257 |
| 2021 | +53 |
| 2022 | +173 |
| 2023 | −9 |
| 2024 | −139 |
| 2025 | −161 |
Santa Cruz sits on Arizona's southern border with Nogales as its seat, and its heavily Hispanic population has delivered Democratic presidential margins above 15 points in each of the last several cycles, making it one of the state's most consistently blue counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 47.4 points in 2016 and a Republican high of 21.8 points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 16.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.6 points.
A population of 48,926, a 15% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,217 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Presidio County and Imperial County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Santa Cruz County, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/04023/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.