Santa Cruz County, Arizona: New American county. In 2024, voted D+19%. Democratic peak: D+47 in 2016.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+19MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- New AmericanAkashic typology
- Population
- 48,9262024 5-year
- Median household income
- $55,2172024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 28.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 82.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47 in 2016MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+22 in 1984MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- El Paso County, TX · similarity 0.99
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Santa Cruz CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Santa Cruz County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | No data |
| 1896 | No data |
| 1900 | No data |
| 1904 | No data |
| 1908 | No data |
| 1912 | +41.4% |
| 1916 | +4.2% |
| 1920 | −9.3% |
| 1924 | +6.5% |
| 1928 | +2.3% |
| 1932 | +43.4% |
| 1936 | +39.0% |
| 1940 | +22.2% |
| 1944 | +27.9% |
| 1948 | +14.5% |
| 1952 | −11.4% |
| 1956 | −18.5% |
| 1960 | +19.2% |
| 1964 | +13.1% |
| 1968 | −4.1% |
| 1972 | −6.6% |
| 1976 | −1.0% |
| 1980 | −11.0% |
| 1984 | −21.8% |
| 1988 | −0.8% |
| 1992 | +6.0% |
| 1996 | +36.5% |
| 2000 | +21.2% |
| 2004 | +19.2% |
| 2008 | +31.3% |
| 2012 | +37.7% |
| 2016 | +47.4% |
| 2020 | +35.5% |
| 2024 | +18.6% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 11,265 | 7,699 | 19,167 | ||
| D | 13,138 | 6,194 | 19,581 | ||
| D | 11,690 | 3,897 | 16,433 | ||
| D | 9,486 | 4,235 | 13,911 | ||
| D | 8,683 | 4,518 | 13,303 | ||
| D | 6,909 | 4,668 | 11,689 | ||
| D | 5,233 | 3,344 | 8,893 | ||
| D | 5,241 | 2,256 | 8,167 | ||
| D | 3,512 | 3,024 | 8,080 | ||
| R | 3,268 | 3,320 | 6,690 | ||
| R | 2,463 | 3,855 | 6,389 | ||
| R | 2,089 | 2,674 | 5,340 | ||
| R | 2,265 | 2,312 | 4,738 | ||
| R | 1,866 | 2,137 | 4,079 | ||
| R | 1,557 | 1,702 | 3,533 | ||
| D | 1,955 | 1,503 | 3,460 | ||
| D | 1,868 | 1,265 | 3,135 | ||
| R | 1,131 | 1,646 | 2,778 | ||
| R | 1,365 | 1,716 | 3,081 | ||
| D | 1,424 | 1,058 | 2,519 | ||
| D | 1,291 | 727 | 2,022 | ||
| D | 1,536 | 978 | 2,516 | ||
| D | 1,729 | 742 | 2,530 | ||
| D | 1,606 | 625 | 2,260 | ||
| D | 962 | 919 | 1,884 | ||
| D | 673 | 579 | 1,450 | ||
| R | 706 | 850 | 1,556 | ||
| D | 726 | 666 | 1,442 | ||
| D | 250 | 56 | 469 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
3.8%
English
2.8%
Irish
2.5%
Italian
1.5%
American
1.3%
French
0.7%
Polish
0.6%
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$55,217
Santa Cruz County ranks in the bottom 25% of US counties.
Santa Cruz County$55,217
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Santa Cruz County ranks in the bottom 25% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
20.2%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1827.2%
Working age (18–64)17.7%
Seniors (65+)18.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
22.3%
speak English only
Spanish77.1%
Other Indo-European0.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 11.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Santa Cruz sits on Arizona's southern border with Nogales as its seat, and its heavily Hispanic population has delivered Democratic presidential margins above 15 points in each of the last several cycles, making it one of the state's most consistently blue counties.
Santa Cruz County has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, reaching a Democratic margin of forty-seven points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 it moved seventeen points toward the Republican candidate — part of the sharpest rightward shift recorded among any group of places in the country.
Its demographics describe the shift: a 29% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $55,217, and a population of 48,926. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of El Paso County and Hudson County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Santa Cruz County, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/04023/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More new american counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Santa Cruz County, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Santa Cruz County, Arizona voted Democratic by 18.6 points (D+19), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 19,167 votes cast, 11,265 went Democratic and 7,699 went Republican.
What is Santa Cruz County, Arizona's political typology?
Akashic places Santa Cruz County, Arizona in the "New American" typology — Communities where a large share of households speak a language other than English — multilingual, Democratic-leaning overall, yet the hardest-swinging bloc toward the Republican Party in 2024. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 20 times, Republican 9 times, and other 0 times.
When did Santa Cruz County, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Santa Cruz County, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Santa Cruz County, Arizona?
Santa Cruz County, Arizona has a population of 48,926 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Santa Cruz County, Arizona?
Median household income in Santa Cruz County, Arizona is $55,217 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Santa Cruz County, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Santa Cruz County, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 9 went Republican. The county's typology — "New American" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.