HarrisDemocratic39.1%2,597TrumpRepublican59.9%3,976OtherAll other candidates1.0%65
R+20.8- Lead
- 1,379
- Total
- 6,638
- vs nation
- R+19.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Akashicstate house district
New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4
Contests in this Place (47 available)
President38 · 1876–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the district’s overall result across 1892–2024, on its current boundaries.
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
BidenDemocratic41.9%2,575TrumpRepublican56.7%3,482OtherAll other candidates1.4%87
R+14.8- Lead
- 907
- Total
- 6,144
- vs nation
- R+19.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic36.1%1,928TrumpRepublican57.4%3,069OtherAll other candidates6.5%347
R+21.4- Lead
- 1,141
- Total
- 5,344
- vs nation
- R+23.4
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic43.0%2,166RomneyRepublican55.4%2,792OtherAll other candidates1.6%81
R+12.4- Lead
- 626
- Total
- 5,039
- vs nation
- R+16.3
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ObamaDemocratic46.2%2,351McCainRepublican51.7%2,632OtherAll other candidates2.1%106
R+5.5- Lead
- 281
- Total
- 5,089
- vs nation
- R+12.8
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
KerryDemocratic43.5%2,137BushRepublican55.2%2,710OtherAll other candidates1.3%65
R+11.7- Lead
- 573
- Total
- 4,912
- vs nation
- R+9.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
GoreDemocratic36.9%1,554BushRepublican55.4%2,335OtherAll other candidates7.7%325
R+18.5- Lead
- 781
- Total
- 4,214
- vs nation
- R+19.1
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
ClintonDemocratic38.6%1,441DoleRepublican45.3%1,690OtherAll other candidates16.1%602
R+6.7- Lead
- 249
- Total
- 3,733
- vs nation
- R+15.2
modeled Census-place estimatemodeled estimate
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+20.8MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 9,7412024 5-year
- Population density
- 61 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 160 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $89,1282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 94.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+4.1 in 1876MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+76.5 in 1956MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- State House District Carroll 05, NH · twin score 96.1
presidential history
Party record book
New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
52.0%
397 votes · D+4.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Grover Cleveland, 1892 · 47.4%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1956
88.2%
1,411 votes · R+76.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 85.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
2,597votes
39.1% of the vote · R+20.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 2,575 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
3,976votes
59.9% of the vote · R+20.8 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 3,482 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Grover Cleveland1892
−6.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+4.8 · U.S. D+1.7 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · −9.2 pts
Republican
Richard Nixon1960
+65.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+65.8 · U.S. D+0.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1948 · +64.6 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RLino AvellaniState House · Carroll 4
RMike BelcherState House · Carroll 4
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row is a county-allocated estimate of U.S. House votes for this district — county returns apportioned onto its boundary, not precinct-counted. “Vote lead” is the estimated local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Carroll 04 covers a lightly populated stretch of New Hampshire's Lakes and White Mountain region, where the 2024 presidential contest broke R+20.8 — among the wider margins in a state that itself has grown increasingly competitive statewide.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 4.1 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 76.5 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 6.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 20.8 points.
A population of 9,741, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $89,128 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District Carroll 05 and State House District Carroll 03.
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
State House District Carroll 05
New Hampshire
96.1twin score
% unaffiliatedmedian ageScottish ancestry
State House District Carroll 03
New Hampshire
95.6twin score
% unaffiliatedmedian ageScottish ancestry
State House District Grafton 05
New Hampshire
93.9twin score
elasticitymedian agepopulation scale
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/33104/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
New Hampshire at the ballot boxAll elections →
Places within New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4
counties it covers1
Frequently asked questions
How did New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 vote in 2024?
In 2024, New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 voted Republican by 20.8 points (R+20.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 6,638 votes cast, 2,597 went Democratic and 3,976 went Republican.
When did New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 voted Democratic was 1912.
How many people live in New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4?
New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 has a population of 9,741 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4?
Median household income in New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 is $89,128 — above the national median of $80,734. The New Hampshire state median is $99,031.
What is the political history of New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in New Hampshire State House District Carroll 4 from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 36 went Republican.