Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA · how this place’s counties split between candidates in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain and there is no roll-up above it. Each cell counts how many of this place’s counties a candidate led — a count of records, not a vote total. Who led the place as a whole is not knowable from these returns, because county rows carry a leader and a lead but no per-candidate votes.
Presidential nominating contests in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+7.6
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.5
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.1 points.
Domestic migration in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−684
2012
+79
2013
+285
2014
−262
2015
+550
2016
−470
2017
+592
2018
+703
2019
+1,665
2021
+6,610
2022
+2,693
2023
+1,171
2024
+2,230
2025
+1,274
Harrisburg's concentration of state employees and Dauphin County's suburban precincts pull the metro toward competitive margins, while Cumberland County's faster-growing exurbs have trended reliably Republican in recent cycles by double digits.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 11.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 64.1 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 0.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.5 points.
A population of 604,155, a 72% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,484 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Omaha, NE-IA and Raleigh-Cary, NC.
Akashic
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/25420/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
How did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+5.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 323,647 votes cast, 150,967 went Democratic and 168,814 went Republican.
When did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania has a population of 604,155 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania is $81,484 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican.
