† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
3 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupHarrisburg-Carlisle, PAPennsylvaniaUnited States
German25.7%21.6%12.5%
Irish11.9%14.8%9.4%
English8.2%8.3%9.5%
Italian6.4%10.6%4.8%
American5.4%4.4%5.3%
Polish2.9%5.4%2.2%
Scottish1.8%1.1%1.3%
French1.5%—1.6%
African American†8.1%8.7%9.9%
African0.4%0.4%0.5%
Nigerian0.3%—0.2%
Puerto Rican3.8%3.7%1.8%
Mexican1.6%1.4%11.3%
Dominican1.0%1.4%0.7%
Asian Indian2.0%1.2%1.4%
Nepalese0.9%——
Vietnamese0.6%0.3%0.6%
Chinese0.5%0.9%1.3%
Filipino0.3%0.2%0.9%
Korean0.2%0.2%0.4%
Bhutanese0.2%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
Pennsylvania
United States
Median age
40.1
41.2
39.1
Age 18–24
8.8%
8.9%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
18.6%
19.5%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
Pennsylvania
United States
Median household income
$81,484
$77,971
$84,427
Poverty rate
10.1%
11.7%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
35.8%
35.2%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
Pennsylvania
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
12.2%
12.4%
22.3%
Spanish
4.5%
5.6%
13.6%
German or other West Germanic
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
Other Indo-European
2.8%
1.7%
2.0%
Religious landscape
Measure
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
Pennsylvania
United States
Catholic
13.1%
21.9%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
10.1%
9.3%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
57.8%
53.1%
51.5%
Mainline Protestant
12.6%
10.3%
5.2%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
−8.4%
1896
−25.5%
1900
−20.9%
1904
−36.4%
1908
−23.7%
1912
+11.1%
1916
−3.5%
1920
−28.6%
1924
−33.9%
1928
−64.1%
1932
−16.5%
1936
+5.9%
1940
−4.0%
1944
−19.4%
1948
−25.3%
1952
−32.2%
1956
−35.7%
1960
−32.7%
1964
+4.6%
1968
−30.2%
1972
−43.9%
1976
−20.2%
1980
−26.9%
1984
−31.4%
1988
−24.3%
1992
−14.6%
1996
−11.9%
2000
−19.4%
2004
−19.5%
2008
−3.9%
2012
−8.0%
2016
−10.5%
2020
−4.7%
2024
−5.5%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
46.6%Harris150,967
52.2%Trump168,814
0.6%Stein1,949 +1
R+5.5
R+0.8
R+4.0
323,647
All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican52.2%168,814
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic46.6%150,967
Jill SteinIndependent0.6%1,949
Chase OliverLibertarian0.6%1,917
R
46.9%Biden147,178
51.6%Trump161,913
1.4%
R+4.7
D+5.8
R+9.1
313,615
R
42.1%Clinton116,423
52.6%Trump145,555
5.3%
R+10.5
R+2.5
R+12.6
276,640
R
45.2%Obama115,017
53.2%Romney135,379
1.7%
R+8.0
R+4.0
R+11.8
254,707
R
47.5%Obama124,677
51.4%McCain135,035
1.1%
R+3.9
D+15.6
R+11.2
262,578
R
40.0%Kerry98,650
59.5%Bush146,863
0.5%
R+19.5
R+0.2
R+17.1
246,717
R
39.0%Gore79,902
58.4%Bush119,617
2.6%
R+19.4
R+7.5
R+19.9
204,881
R
39.8%Clinton74,296
51.8%Dole96,516
8.4%
R+11.9
D+2.7
R+20.4
186,471
R
34.1%Clinton67,711
48.7%Bush96,797
17.3%
R+14.6
D+9.6
R+20.2
198,810
R
37.5%Dukakis63,602
61.7%Bush104,754
0.8%
R+24.3
D+7.2
R+16.5
169,643
R
33.9%Mondale58,642
65.3%Reagan112,977
0.7%
R+31.4
R+4.6
R+13.2
172,894
R
32.1%Carter50,722
58.9%Reagan93,217
9.0%
R+26.9
R+6.6
R+17.1
158,246
R
38.8%Carter61,955
59.0%Ford94,223
2.2%
R+20.2
D+23.7
R+22.3
159,712
R
27.1%McGovern39,880
71.0%Nixon104,488
1.8%
R+43.9
R+13.8
R+20.8
147,070
R
30.0%Humphrey43,891
60.2%Nixon87,957
9.8%
R+30.2
R+34.8
R+29.5
146,109
D
52.0%Johnson78,806
47.4%Goldwater71,767
0.6%
D+4.6
D+37.3
R+17.9
151,408
R
33.4%Kennedy53,343
66.1%Nixon105,496
0.4%
R+32.7
D+3.0
R+32.9
159,486
R
32.0%Stevenson46,453
67.7%Eisenhower98,321
0.4%
R+35.7
R+3.5
R+20.3
145,327
R
33.8%Stevenson46,789
66.0%Eisenhower91,420
0.3%
R+32.2
R+6.9
R+21.4
138,603
R
36.9%Truman41,746
62.2%Dewey70,333
0.9%
R+25.3
R+5.9
R+29.8
113,121
R
40.1%Roosevelt46,017
59.5%Dewey68,229
0.4%
R+19.4
R+15.4
R+26.8
114,756
R
47.9%Roosevelt58,664
51.9%Willkie63,568
0.3%
R+4.0
R+9.9
R+13.9
122,594
D
52.6%Roosevelt67,886
46.7%Landon60,269
0.7%
D+5.9
D+22.4
R+18.4
129,119
R
40.6%Roosevelt38,231
57.1%Hoover53,778
2.3%
R+16.5
D+47.6
R+34.3
94,172
R
17.6%Smith16,111
81.7%Hoover74,747
0.7%
R+64.1
R+30.1
R+46.6
91,498
R
28.7%Davis19,357
62.7%Coolidge42,219
8.6%
R+33.9
R+5.3
R+8.8
67,352
R
33.6%Cox20,759
62.2%Harding38,460
4.2%
R+28.6
R+25.1
R+2.4
61,842
R
46.0%Wilson20,263
49.5%Hughes21,825
4.5%
R+3.5
R+14.7
R+6.7
44,085
O
34.1%Wilson14,434
22.9%Taft9,718
43.0%
Roosevelt +9.0
D+34.8
R+8.4
42,386
R
35.7%Bryan15,133
59.3%Taft25,167
5.0%
R+23.7
D+12.7
R+14.1
42,421
R
29.7%Parker12,172
66.1%Roosevelt27,079
4.2%
R+36.4
R+15.5
R+16.7
40,968
R
38.0%Bryan15,258
58.9%McKinley23,660
3.1%
R+20.9
D+4.5
R+13.4
40,157
R
35.6%Bryan14,263
61.1%McKinley24,467
3.3%
R+25.5
R+17.1
R+19.4
40,061
R
44.3%Cleveland15,671
52.7%Harrison18,650
3.0%
R+8.4
—
R+10.1
35,393
Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
46.0%148,205
50.8%163,482
322,039
2022
R
48.0%120,523
49.3%123,760
251,119
2018
R
48.8%112,457
49.2%113,284
230,286
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+7.6
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+5.5
Registration and the presidential vote track closely here — within 2.1 points.
Domestic migration in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−684
2012
+79
2013
+285
2014
−262
2015
+550
2016
−470
2017
+592
2018
+703
2019
+1,665
2021
+6,610
2022
+2,693
2023
+1,171
2024
+2,230
2025
+1,274
Harrisburg's concentration of state employees and Dauphin County's suburban precincts pull the metro toward competitive margins, while Cumberland County's faster-growing exurbs have trended reliably Republican in recent cycles by double digits.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 11.1 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 64.1 points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved 0.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 5.5 points.
A population of 604,155, a 72% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,484 describe the metro. The metro's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Omaha, NE-IA and Raleigh-Cary, NC.
Akashic
Political twins — metros
The metros whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/25420/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+5.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 323,647 votes cast, 150,967 went Democratic and 168,814 went Republican.
When did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania has a population of 604,155 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania is $81,484 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican.
