Merced County, California: New American county. In 2024, voted R+4%. Democratic peak: D+47 in 1936.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+4MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- New AmericanAkashic typology
- Population
- 290,2012024 5-year
- Median household income
- $65,5102024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 31.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 63.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+42 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- San Joaquin County, CA · similarity 0.89
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Merced CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Merced County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | +18.1% |
| 1880 | +17.5% |
| 1884 | +8.1% |
| 1888 | +11.1% |
| 1892 | +10.8% |
| 1896 | +25.7% |
| 1900 | +13.8% |
| 1904 | −5.5% |
| 1908 | −0.3% |
| 1912 | +46.8% |
| 1916 | +9.6% |
| 1920 | −35.0% |
| 1924 | −42.4% |
| 1928 | −21.7% |
| 1932 | +39.9% |
| 1936 | +47.2% |
| 1940 | +26.2% |
| 1944 | +16.9% |
| 1948 | +12.3% |
| 1952 | −6.3% |
| 1956 | +7.8% |
| 1960 | +12.9% |
| 1964 | +37.6% |
| 1968 | +10.1% |
| 1972 | −11.7% |
| 1976 | +5.6% |
| 1980 | −5.8% |
| 1984 | −18.8% |
| 1988 | −3.8% |
| 1992 | +4.4% |
| 1996 | +2.0% |
| 2000 | −6.7% |
| 2004 | −14.3% |
| 2008 | +8.3% |
| 2012 | +8.7% |
| 2016 | +12.1% |
| 2020 | +10.5% |
| 2024 | −4.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 40,190 | 43,955 | 86,684 | ||
| D | 48,991 | 39,397 | 90,993 | ||
| D | 37,317 | 28,725 | 71,127 | ||
| D | 33,005 | 27,581 | 62,222 | ||
| D | 34,031 | 28,704 | 64,051 | ||
| R | 24,491 | 32,773 | 57,960 | ||
| R | 22,726 | 26,102 | 50,418 | ||
| D | 21,786 | 20,847 | 46,938 | ||
| D | 20,133 | 17,981 | 49,284 | ||
| R | 20,105 | 21,717 | 42,414 | ||
| R | 17,012 | 24,997 | 42,477 | ||
| R | 15,886 | 18,043 | 36,996 | ||
| D | 16,637 | 14,842 | 32,208 | ||
| R | 13,914 | 17,737 | 32,648 | ||
| D | 14,453 | 11,595 | 28,349 | ||
| D | 19,431 | 8,814 | 28,269 | ||
| D | 15,545 | 11,990 | 27,646 | ||
| D | 13,366 | 11,430 | 24,852 | ||
| R | 11,316 | 12,865 | 24,395 | ||
| D | 9,959 | 7,721 | 18,124 | ||
| D | 9,192 | 6,518 | 15,779 | ||
| D | 10,501 | 6,101 | 16,784 | ||
| D | 9,208 | 3,230 | 12,668 | ||
| D | 7,202 | 2,920 | 10,734 | ||
| R | 2,970 | 4,644 | 7,718 | ||
| R | 710 | 3,573 | 6,749 | ||
| R | 1,537 | 3,457 | 5,488 | ||
| D | 2,637 | 2,132 | 5,236 | ||
| O | 1,978 | 0 | 4,228 | ||
| R | 1,100 | 1,107 | 2,483 | ||
| R | 863 | 972 | 1,981 | ||
| D | 1,081 | 811 | 1,950 | ||
| D | 1,117 | 653 | 1,802 | ||
| D | 995 | 782 | 1,972 | ||
| D | 972 | 773 | 1,796 | ||
| D | 953 | 809 | 1,779 | ||
| D | 736 | 516 | 1,256 | ||
| D | 804 | 558 | 1,362 |
Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
4.3%
Irish
3.3%
English
3.3%
Italian
1.8%
American
1.7%
French
0.8%
Scottish
0.6%
African American
2.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 31.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$65,510
Merced County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Merced County$65,510
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Merced County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
19.1%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1826.5%
Working age (18–64)16.1%
Seniors (65+)16.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
47.3%
speak English only
Spanish44.2%
Other Indo-European4.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander3.3%
Other languages0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 54.9% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Merced shifted to the Republican column by 4.4 points in 2024, a notable move for a majority-Hispanic agricultural county in California's Central Valley where dairy farming and field crops define the local economy.
Merced County has leaned Republican in recent presidential elections, reaching a Democratic margin of forty-seven points in 1936. Between 2020 and 2024 it moved fifteen points toward the Republican candidate — part of the sharpest rightward shift recorded among any group of places in the country.
Its demographics describe the shift: a 32% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $65,510, and a population of 290,201. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of San Joaquin County and Fresno County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Merced County, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/06047/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions
How did Merced County, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Merced County, California voted Republican by 4.3 points (R+4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 86,684 votes cast, 40,190 went Democratic and 43,955 went Republican.
What is Merced County, California's political typology?
Akashic places Merced County, California in the "New American" typology — Communities where a large share of households speak a language other than English — multilingual, Democratic-leaning overall, yet the hardest-swinging bloc toward the Republican Party in 2024. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 24 times, Republican 13 times, and other 1 times.
When did Merced County, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Merced County, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Merced County, California?
Merced County, California has a population of 290,201 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Merced County, California?
Median household income in Merced County, California is $65,510 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Merced County, California?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Merced County, California from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 24 went Democratic and 13 went Republican. The county's typology — "New American" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.