congressional districtFlorida 15th Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+0.4
2008D+4.6
2012D+2.5
2016R+9.7
2020R+10.6
2024R+19.8
net swing · 2004→2024R+19.4R+0.4 → R+19.8
vs. U.S. · 2024R+18.3R+19.8 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 64.4% of 621,835 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
157,402
236,562
6,287
400,251
621,835
64.4%
2020
173,771
215,556
4,824
394,151
572,528†
68.8%
2016
143,765
176,218
14,361
334,344
524,457†
63.8%
2012
151,855
144,234
3,784
299,873
500,096†
60.0%
2008
155,690
141,722
4,053
301,465
478,924†
62.9%
2004
136,104
137,224
2,829
276,157
457,752†
60.3%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupFL-15FloridaUnited States
German12.3%8.9%12.5%
Irish10.4%8.2%9.4%
American10.2%7.7%5.3%
English10.0%8.2%9.5%
Italian7.6%5.6%4.8%
Polish2.7%2.1%2.2%
French2.2%1.7%1.6%
Scottish1.8%1.3%1.3%
Puerto Rican5.6%5.6%1.8%
Cuban3.3%7.3%0.7%
Mexican2.4%3.3%11.3%
Colombian1.0%2.1%0.4%
Dominican0.8%1.3%0.7%
Venezuelan0.5%1.6%—
Spaniard0.4%——
Guatemalan0.2%—0.5%
African American†11.1%9.5%9.9%
Jamaican0.9%1.5%0.4%
Haitian0.9%2.3%0.3%
African0.6%0.5%0.5%
Asian Indian1.6%0.9%1.4%
Filipino0.9%0.5%0.9%
Chinese0.6%0.5%1.3%
Vietnamese0.6%0.4%0.6%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
FL-15
Florida
United States
Median age
38.5
43.1
39.1
Age 18–24
7.3%
8.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
23.2%
21.3%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
FL-15
Florida
United States
Median household income
$71,624
$74,568
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.7%
12.6%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
28.8%
34.2%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
FL-15
Florida
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
19.4%
30.7%
22.3%
Spanish
13.8%
22.6%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.5%
1.9%
2.0%
Religious landscape
Measure
FL-15
Florida
United States
Catholic
—
19.0%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
18.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
53.1%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Florida 15th Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−0.4%
2008
+4.6%
2012
+2.5%
2016
−9.7%
2020
−10.6%
2024
−19.8%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 25 House races · 17 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
15
R
43.8%152,361
56.2%195,334
347,695
2022
15
R
41.5%102,835
58.5%145,219
248,054
2020
15
R
44.6%174,297
55.4%216,374
390,671
2018
15
R
47.0%134,132
53.0%151,380
285,532
2016
15
R
42.5%135,475
57.5%182,999
318,474
2014
15
R
39.7%84,832
60.3%128,750
213,582
2012
15
R
0.0%0
100.0%1
1
2010
15
R
35.3%85,595
64.7%157,079
242,674
2008
15
R
42.0%151,951
53.1%192,151
361,871
2006
15
R
43.7%97,834
56.3%125,965
223,799
2004
15
R
34.6%111,538
65.4%210,388
321,926
2002
15
R
36.8%85,433
63.1%146,414
231,857
2000
15
R
39.2%117,511
58.8%176,189
299,445
1998
15
R
36.9%75,654
63.1%129,278
204,932
1996
15
R
42.9%115,981
51.4%139,014
270,350
1994
15
R
46.1%100,526
53.7%117,044
217,902
1992
15
D
50.7%132,412
49.3%128,873
261,285
1990
15
R
0.0%0
97.8%104,295
106,669
1988
15
R
33.9%67,746
66.1%132,090
199,836
1986
15
R
0.0%0
100.0%1
1
1984
15
R
34.3%66,833
65.7%128,097
194,930
1982
15
R
42.9%67,083
57.1%89,158
156,241
1980
15
D
65.4%132,952
34.6%70,433
203,385
1978
15
D
74.2%108,837
25.8%37,897
146,734
1976
15
D
70.4%121,292
29.6%50,941
172,233
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
40.0%157,851
57.6%226,910
394,209
2022
R
41.3%3,201,522
57.7%4,474,847
7,758,014
2018
R
49.9%4,089,472
50.1%4,099,505
8,188,977
2016
R
44.3%4,122,088
52.0%4,835,191
9,301,716
2012
D
55.2%4,523,451
42.2%3,458,267
8,189,905
2010
R
20.2%1,092,936
48.9%2,645,743
5,411,016
2006
D
60.3%2,890,548
38.1%1,826,127
4,793,440
2004
R
48.3%3,590,201
49.4%3,672,864
7,429,707
2000
D
51.0%2,989,487
46.2%2,705,348
5,856,643
1998
D
62.5%2,436,407
37.5%1,463,755
3,900,162
1994
R
29.5%1,210,577
70.5%2,895,200
4,105,777
1992
D
65.4%3,245,565
34.6%1,716,505
4,962,070
1988
R
49.6%2,016,553
50.4%2,051,071
4,067,624
1986
D
54.7%1,877,543
45.3%1,552,376
3,429,919
1982
D
61.7%1,637,667
38.3%1,015,330
2,652,997
1980
R
48.3%1,705,409
51.7%1,822,460
3,527,869
1976
D
63.0%1,799,518
37.0%1,057,886
2,857,534
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Rick Scott · Republican57.6%226,910
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell · Democrat40.0%157,851
Ben Everidge · No Party Affiliation0.9%3,736
Feena Bonoan · Libertarian0.7%2,625
Tuan Tq Nguyen · No Party Affiliation0.7%2,603
Write-In0.1%484
Florida's 15th congressional district, as drawn for the 2026 elections, takes in Hernando and Citrus counties and parts of Hillsborough and Pasco. About 769,300 people live within its 2026 boundaries, with a median age of 38.5.
Measured on those boundaries, the district voted Democratic for president early in the decade and Republican in 2024. The margin was D+2.6 in 2012, R+9.7 in 2016, R+10.6 in 2020, and R+19.8 in 2024.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 4.6 points in 2008 and a Republican high of 19.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 9.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.8 points.
A population of 769,268, a 60% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,624 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 16 and Congressional District 5.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Florida 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/1215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Florida 15th Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Florida 15th Congressional District voted Republican by 19.8 points (R+19.8), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 400,251 votes cast, 157,402 went Democratic and 236,562 went Republican.
When did Florida 15th Congressional District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Florida 15th Congressional District voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Florida 15th Congressional District?
Florida 15th Congressional District has a population of 769,268 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Florida 15th Congressional District?
Median household income in Florida 15th Congressional District is $71,624 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Florida 15th Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Florida 15th Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 4 went Republican.
