Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes.
2020–20243 cycles · 3 audited
2024 turnout
25.2%1,221 participants ÷ 4,851 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+12.6 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state
-13.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
12.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm
0%20%40%
17.9%
202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,221
4,851 ± 675
25.2%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
839
4,698 ± 670
17.9%
Audited
E/D
1,353
4,446 ± 629
30.4%
Audited
E/D
Sources and methods
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
presidential history
Party record book
East Bakersfield, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
76.7%
775 votes · D+56.2
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 75.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
39.1%
475 votes · D+18.3
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 34.3%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
923votes
68.7% of the vote · D+40.3
Runner-up · Hillary Clinton, 2016 · 857 votes
Republican
George H. W. Bush1992
502votes
33.1% of the vote · D+11.3
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 475 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
+55.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+57.6 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +52.4 pts
Republican
George H. W. Bush1992
−5.8pts R vs U.S.
Place D+11.3 · U.S. D+5.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · −19.8 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
East Bakersfield · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Kern County, California, the county containing East Bakersfield — East Bakersfield’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in East Bakersfield, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
East Bakersfield's population skews heavily Hispanic and lower-income relative to Kern County as a whole, sitting within a congressional district that has shifted from reliably Republican to a genuine swing battleground over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 57.6 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 21.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 18.3 points.
A population of 11,062, a 12% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $38,644 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Parlier and August.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
How did East Bakersfield, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, East Bakersfield, California voted Democratic by 18.3 points (D+18.3), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,216 votes cast, 698 went Democratic and 475 went Republican.
How many people live in East Bakersfield, California?
East Bakersfield, California has a population of 11,062 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in East Bakersfield, California?
Median household income in East Bakersfield, California is $38,644 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of East Bakersfield, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in East Bakersfield, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
