Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic35.2%418TrumpRepublican62.7%745OtherAll other candidates2.2%26
R+27.5
Lead
327
Total
1,189
vs nation
R+26.0
BidenDemocratic36.4%459TrumpRepublican61.1%771OtherAll other candidates2.5%32
R+24.7
Lead
312
Total
1,262
vs nation
R+29.2
ClintonDemocratic31.5%341TrumpRepublican59.7%647OtherAll other candidates8.9%96
R+28.2
Lead
306
Total
1,084
vs nation
R+30.3
ObamaDemocratic37.3%363RomneyRepublican59.9%582OtherAll other candidates2.8%27
R+22.5
Lead
219
Total
972
vs nation
R+26.4
ObamaDemocratic36.8%417McCainRepublican62.0%702OtherAll other candidates1.1%13
R+25.2
Lead
285
Total
1,132
vs nation
R+32.4
KerryDemocratic28.8%299BushRepublican69.9%725OtherAll other candidates1.3%13
R+41.1
Lead
426
Total
1,037
vs nation
R+38.6
ClintonDemocratic33.0%305DoleRepublican56.4%521OtherAll other candidates10.5%97
R+23.4
Lead
216
Total
923
vs nation
R+31.9
ClintonDemocratic32.9%312BushRepublican44.6%423OtherAll other candidates22.6%214
R+11.7
Lead
111
Total
949
vs nation
R+17.3
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+27.5MIT Election Lab
Population
2,6812024 5-year
Population density
516 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
5.2 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$47,9302024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
77.0%2024 5-year
Black
0.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
18.6%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+41.1 in 2004MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
59.0%1,195 participants ÷ 2,025 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+13.1 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state
-12.9 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
39.3%–45.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
47.7%
35.3%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,195
2,025 ± 693
59.0%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
793
2,248 ± 676
35.3%
Audited
E/D
1,268
2,620 ± 722
48.4%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
920
1,930 ± 303
47.7%
Audited
E/D
1,113
1,503 ± 278
74.1%
Audited
E/D
972
1,968
49.4%
Derived
—
1,132
1,680
67.4%
Derived
—
1,037
1,392 extrapolated
74.5%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Frazier Park, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
37.3%
363 votes · R+22.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 36.8%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
69.9%
725 votes · R+41.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 62.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
459votes
36.4% of the vote · R+24.7
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 418 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
771votes
61.1% of the vote · R+24.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 745 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1992
−17.3pts D vs U.S.
Place R+11.7 · U.S. D+5.6
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · −26.0 pts
Republican
George W. Bush2004
+38.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+41.1 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +32.4 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Frazier Park · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Kern County, California, the county containing Frazier Park — Frazier Park’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Frazier Park, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Frazier Park sits at roughly 4,000 feet elevation along Interstate 5 in Kern County, drawing a small, largely white, rural population whose voting patterns lean more conservative than the surrounding Los Angeles media market would suggest.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 41.1 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 27.5 points.
A population of 2,681, a 77% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $47,930 describe the city.
In 2024, Frazier Park, California voted Republican by 27.5 points (R+27.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,189 votes cast, 418 went Democratic and 745 went Republican.
How many people live in Frazier Park, California?
Frazier Park, California has a population of 2,681 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Frazier Park, California?
Median household income in Frazier Park, California is $47,930 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Frazier Park, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Frazier Park, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 8 went Republican.
