Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic28.2%423TrumpRepublican69.4%1,042OtherAll other candidates2.4%36
R+41.2
Lead
619
Total
1,501
vs nation
R+39.8
BidenDemocratic28.1%438TrumpRepublican69.0%1,074OtherAll other candidates2.8%44
R+40.9
Lead
636
Total
1,556
vs nation
R+45.3
ClintonDemocratic24.6%311TrumpRepublican70.3%890OtherAll other candidates5.1%65
R+45.7
Lead
579
Total
1,266
vs nation
R+47.8
ObamaDemocratic33.8%406RomneyRepublican63.4%761OtherAll other candidates2.8%33
R+29.6
Lead
355
Total
1,200
vs nation
R+33.4
ObamaDemocratic38.4%506McCainRepublican60.4%796OtherAll other candidates1.2%16
R+22.0
Lead
290
Total
1,318
vs nation
R+29.3
KerryDemocratic30.0%365BushRepublican68.6%834OtherAll other candidates1.3%16
R+38.6
Lead
469
Total
1,215
vs nation
R+36.1
ClintonDemocratic47.1%541DoleRepublican42.3%486OtherAll other candidates10.5%121
D+4.8
Lead
55
Total
1,148
vs nation
R+3.7
ClintonDemocratic44.4%538BushRepublican33.1%401OtherAll other candidates22.5%273
D+11.3
Lead
137
Total
1,212
vs nation
D+5.7
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+41.2MIT Election Lab
Population
4,0592024 5-year
Population density
187 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
21.7 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$26,6612024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
68.4%2024 5-year
Black
0.4%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
20.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+11.3 in 1992MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+45.7 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
60.6%1,514 participants ÷ 2,497 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+22.9 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
-3.1 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
37.8%–47.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
37.7%
41.8%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,514
2,497 ± 467
60.6%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
973
2,325 ± 416
41.8%
Audited
E/D
1,567
2,421 ± 443
64.7%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
1,075
2,848 ± 474
37.7%
Audited
E/D
1,316
3,251 ± 601
40.5%
Audited
E/D
1,200
2,225
53.9%
Derived
—
1,318
2,607
50.6%
Derived
—
1,215
2,989 extrapolated
40.6%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Lake Isabella, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1996
47.1%
541 votes · D+4.8
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 44.4%
Republican
Donald Trump2016
70.3%
890 votes · R+45.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 69.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1996
541votes
47.1% of the vote · D+4.8
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 538 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
1,074votes
69.0% of the vote · R+40.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 1,042 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1992
+5.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+11.3 · U.S. D+5.6
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · −3.7 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+47.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+45.7 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +45.3 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Lake Isabella · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Kern County, California, the county containing Lake Isabella — Lake Isabella’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Lake Isabella, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Nestled along Lake Isabella in the southern Sierra Nevada, this small Kern County community sits in terrain that consistently produces some of California's most conservative rural margins, far removed from the coastal population centers that dominate statewide outcomes.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 11.3 points in 1992 and a Republican high of 45.7 points in 2016. The 2024 margin was 41.2 points.
A population of 4,059, a 68% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $26,661 describe the city.
In 2024, Lake Isabella, California voted Republican by 41.2 points (R+41.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,501 votes cast, 423 went Democratic and 1,042 went Republican.
When did Lake Isabella, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lake Isabella, California voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Lake Isabella, California?
Lake Isabella, California has a population of 4,059 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lake Isabella, California?
Median household income in Lake Isabella, California is $26,661 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Lake Isabella, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Lake Isabella, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
