† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupModestoCaliforniaUnited States
Mexican41.8%32.3%11.3%
Salvadoran0.7%2.0%0.7%
Puerto Rican0.5%0.6%1.8%
Guatemalan0.4%1.3%0.5%
Spaniard0.4%0.3%—
Spanish0.3%0.3%—
Nicaraguan0.2%0.3%—
German8.0%6.8%12.5%
Irish7.1%5.9%9.4%
English7.1%6.3%9.5%
Portuguese4.7%——
Italian3.6%3.4%4.8%
American2.5%2.8%5.3%
French1.3%1.3%1.6%
Scottish1.3%0.9%1.3%
Asian Indian2.3%2.3%1.4%
Filipino1.6%3.3%0.9%
Chinese0.9%3.9%1.3%
Cambodian0.8%——
Afghan0.7%——
Vietnamese0.5%1.7%0.6%
Hmong0.3%0.3%—
African American†3.8%4.4%9.9%
Aztec5.6%0.3%—
Fijian4.2%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Modesto
California
United States
Median age
35.1
37.9
39.1
Age 18–24
8.4%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
14.4%
15.6%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Modesto
California
United States
Median household income
$79,891
$99,122
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.3%
12.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
21.2%
36.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Modesto
California
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
37.1%
44.4%
22.3%
Spanish
26.9%
28.4%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
3.6%
3.4%
2.0%
Other Asian & Pacific Island
1.6%
2.0%
1.1%
Other languages
1.3%
0.6%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
Modesto
California
United States
Catholic
—
26.2%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
9.0%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.2%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Modesto, California
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−12.8%
2008
+7.4%
2012
+8.2%
2016
+7.4%
2020
+8.0%
2024
−1.4%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
47.9%Harris37,410
49.3%Trump38,520
2.8%
R+1.4
R+9.4
D+0.1
78,100
D
52.8%Biden46,070
44.8%Trump39,065
2.4%
D+8.0
D+0.6
D+3.6
87,255
D
50.6%Clinton35,771
43.2%Trump30,524
6.3%
D+7.4
R+0.8
D+5.3
70,736
D
52.6%Obama34,829
44.4%Romney29,389
3.0%
D+8.2
D+0.8
D+4.4
66,186
D
53.5%Obama36,319
46.1%McCain31,302
0.4%
D+7.4
D+20.2
D+0.1
67,921
R
43.1%Kerry26,697
55.9%Bush34,603
1.0%
R+12.8
—
R+10.3
61,893
Modesto anchors Stanislaus County, a historically competitive corridor where Latino population growth and agricultural employment patterns have steadily reshaped voter registration margins over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 8.2 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 12.8 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 9.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.4 points.
A population of 219,215, a 39% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $79,891 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Fresno and Riverside.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Modesto, California voted Republican by 1.4 points (R+1.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 78,100 votes cast, 37,410 went Democratic and 38,520 went Republican.
When did Modesto, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Modesto, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Modesto, California?
Modesto, California has a population of 219,215 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Modesto, California?
Median household income in Modesto, California is $79,891 — below the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Modesto, California?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Modesto, California from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 2 went Republican.
