Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
62.5%61,717 participants ÷ 98,755 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+25.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
-1.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
37.5%–52.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
67.7%
43.8%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
61,717
98,755 ± 2,102
62.5%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
43,142
98,515 ± 2,212
43.8%
Audited
E/A
67,084
97,458 ± 2,128
68.8%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
63,713
94,100 ± 1,950
67.7%
Audited
E/A
56,885
92,020 ± 1,827
61.8%
Audited
E/A
51,567
87,787
58.7%
Derived
—
51,040
81,836
62.4%
Derived
—
49,620
75,885 extrapolated
65.4%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Orange, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
52.5%
34,661 votes · D+7.4
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 49.9%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
62.8%
31,142 votes · R+27.0
Runner-up · Bob Dole, 1996 · 54.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
34,661votes
52.5% of the vote · D+7.4
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 30,212 votes
Republican
George W. Bush2004
31,142votes
62.8% of the vote · R+27.0
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 29,798 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+4.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+3.1 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +2.9 pts
Republican
Bob Dole1996
+28.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+20.3 · U.S. D+8.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +24.6 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Orange · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Orange County, California, the county containing Orange — Orange’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Orange, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Orange City sits within Orange County's historically Republican core, but increasing Latino and younger-voter registration has gradually narrowed margins in countywide contests over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 7.4 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 27.0 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 3.1 points.
A population of 138,266, a 40% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $117,113 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of San Marcos and Fullerton.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Orange, California voted Democratic by 3.1 points (D+3.1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 60,517 votes cast, 30,212 went Democratic and 28,345 went Republican.
When did Orange, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Orange, California voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Orange, California?
Orange, California has a population of 138,266 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Orange, California?
Median household income in Orange, California is $117,113 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Orange, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Orange, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 5 went Republican.
