Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2012–20246 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
85.8%9,005 participants ÷ 10,492 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+34.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+11.4 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
51.3%–59.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
74.5%
52.8%
201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
9,005
10,492 ± 1,109
85.8%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
4,761
9,024 ± 1,088
52.8%
Audited
E/D
6,637
7,600 ± 979
87.3%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
4,989
6,700 ± 665
74.5%
Audited
E/A
5,722
6,122 ± 642
93.5%
Audited
E/D
4,486
5,968
75.2%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Asbury Lake, FL · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
23.7%
2,094 votes · R+51.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 21.7%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
82.3%
3,266 votes · R+64.8
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 79.9%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
2,094votes
23.7% of the vote · R+51.4
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 1,425 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
6,632votes
75.1% of the vote · R+51.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 5,037 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
−49.9pts D vs U.S.
Place R+51.4 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · −59.4 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+64.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+60.7 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +63.7 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Asbury Lake · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Clay County, Florida, the county containing Asbury Lake — Asbury Lake’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Asbury Lake, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Asbury Lake is a census-designated place outside Jacksonville whose rapid residential development has drawn younger families and shifted the demographic profile of one of Florida's historically Republican suburban counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 64.8 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 3.6 points toward the Democratic candidate; the 2024 margin was 51.4 points.
A population of 14,458, a 83% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $100,949 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Gonzalez and Mustang.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Asbury Lake, Florida voted Republican by 51.4 points (R+51.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 8,830 votes cast, 2,094 went Democratic and 6,632 went Republican.
How many people live in Asbury Lake, Florida?
Asbury Lake, Florida has a population of 14,458 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Asbury Lake, Florida?
Median household income in Asbury Lake, Florida is $100,949 — above the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Asbury Lake, Florida?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Asbury Lake, Florida from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
