Waco, Texas
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −15.6% |
| 2008 | −3.6% |
| 2012 | −5.5% |
| 2016 | −1.3% |
| 2020 | +2.0% |
| 2024 | −8.2% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 45.2%Harris18,787 | 53.4%Trump22,196 | 1.4% | R+8.2 | R+10.2 | R+6.7 | 41,584 | |
| D | 50.2%Biden21,427 | 48.2%Trump20,566 | 1.6% | D+2.0 | D+3.3 | R+2.4 | 42,664 | |
| R | 46.4%Clinton16,006 | 47.7%Trump16,452 | 5.8% | R+1.3 | D+4.2 | R+3.4 | 34,460 | |
| R | 46.6%Obama14,935 | 52.1%Romney16,706 | 1.3% | R+5.5 | R+1.9 | R+9.4 | 32,047 | |
| R | 47.8%Obama17,386 | 51.4%McCain18,696 | 0.8% | R+3.6 | D+12.0 | R+10.9 | 36,370 | |
| R | 42.2%Kerry15,194 | 57.8%Bush20,814 | 0.1% | R+15.6 | — | R+13.1 | 36,032 |
Waco's electorate blends a majority-minority permanent population with a large transient student body, producing registration spikes in presidential cycles and dampened midterm participation relative to its raw population size.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 2.0 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 15.6 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 10.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.2 points.
A population of 143,570, a 45% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,365 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bakersfield and Clarksville.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Waco, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/4876000/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.