Caldwell County, Kentucky: Evangelical Deep South county. In 2024, voted R+58%. Republican peak: R+58 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+58MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Evangelical Deep SouthAkashic typology
- Population
- 12,6182024 5-year
- Median household income
- $59,5832024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.8%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.5%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+25 in 1976MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+58 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Harrison County, KY · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Caldwell CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Caldwell County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
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Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −6.8% |
| 1896 | −0.5% |
| 1900 | −4.6% |
| 1904 | −6.7% |
| 1908 | +0.8% |
| 1912 | −1.1% |
| 1916 | −2.0% |
| 1920 | −3.7% |
| 1924 | −6.5% |
| 1928 | −25.4% |
| 1932 | +18.9% |
| 1936 | +11.9% |
| 1940 | +11.9% |
| 1944 | +4.3% |
| 1948 | +14.7% |
| 1952 | −8.0% |
| 1956 | −5.2% |
| 1960 | −23.4% |
| 1964 | +23.8% |
| 1968 | −13.8% |
| 1972 | −36.1% |
| 1976 | +24.7% |
| 1980 | +5.6% |
| 1984 | −13.0% |
| 1988 | −7.0% |
| 1992 | +18.3% |
| 1996 | +7.1% |
| 2000 | −17.1% |
| 2004 | −28.7% |
| 2008 | −26.7% |
| 2012 | −35.0% |
| 2016 | −54.3% |
| 2020 | −54.0% |
| 2024 | −58.2% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 1,256 | 4,860 | 6,188 | ||
| R | 1,433 | 4,906 | 6,434 | ||
| R | 1,260 | 4,507 | 5,975 | ||
| R | 1,852 | 3,904 | 5,860 | ||
| R | 2,212 | 3,866 | 6,199 | ||
| R | 2,245 | 4,066 | 6,349 | ||
| R | 2,223 | 3,161 | 5,482 | ||
| D | 2,434 | 2,067 | 5,155 | ||
| D | 3,000 | 1,966 | 5,651 | ||
| R | 2,564 | 2,952 | 5,577 | ||
| R | 2,427 | 3,162 | 5,653 | ||
| D | 2,924 | 2,609 | 5,645 | ||
| D | 3,016 | 1,808 | 4,899 | ||
| R | 1,345 | 2,952 | 4,451 | ||
| R | 1,439 | 2,139 | 5,065 | ||
| D | 2,831 | 1,738 | 4,598 | ||
| R | 2,137 | 3,442 | 5,579 | ||
| R | 2,417 | 2,681 | 5,124 | ||
| R | 2,133 | 2,507 | 4,650 | ||
| D | 2,210 | 1,626 | 3,985 | ||
| D | 2,444 | 2,242 | 4,696 | ||
| D | 2,858 | 2,246 | 5,130 | ||
| D | 2,699 | 2,121 | 4,848 | ||
| D | 2,971 | 2,020 | 5,039 | ||
| R | 1,695 | 2,855 | 4,560 | ||
| R | 2,183 | 2,498 | 4,855 | ||
| R | 2,746 | 2,958 | 5,792 | ||
| R | 1,605 | 1,672 | 3,343 | ||
| R | 1,231 | 1,263 | 2,964 | ||
| D | 1,541 | 1,517 | 3,142 | ||
| R | 1,227 | 1,413 | 2,776 | ||
| R | 1,475 | 1,622 | 3,164 | ||
| R | 1,530 | 1,544 | 3,109 | ||
| R | 960 | 1,126 | 2,425 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
15.7%
American
9.5%
German
9.2%
Irish
8.0%
French
2.3%
Italian
1.8%
Scottish
0.9%
African American
4.8%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 42.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$59,583
Caldwell County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Caldwell County$59,583
Kentucky$63,726
United States$80,734
Caldwell County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
15.1%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.5%
Working age (18–64)14.8%
Seniors (65+)7.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.7%
speak English only
Other Indo-European1.4%
Spanish1.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 2.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Caldwell County has shifted decisively toward Republican presidential candidates over the past two decades, posting a 58-point margin in 2024. Its economy centers on agriculture and small-town commerce in the western Kentucky coalfield fringe.
The Republican margin here reached its widest at fifty-eight points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved four points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was fifty-eight points.
A median household income of $59,583, a 15% poverty rate, and a 90% non-Hispanic-white share describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Harrison County and Macon County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Caldwell County, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/21033/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More evangelical deep south counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Caldwell County, Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Caldwell County, Kentucky voted Republican by 58.2 points (R+58), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 6,188 votes cast, 1,256 went Democratic and 4,860 went Republican.
What is Caldwell County, Kentucky's political typology?
Akashic places Caldwell County, Kentucky in the "Evangelical Deep South" typology — Deeply Republican, heavily Baptist counties of the Deep South. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 11 times, Republican 23 times, and other 0 times.
When did Caldwell County, Kentucky last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Caldwell County, Kentucky voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Caldwell County, Kentucky?
Caldwell County, Kentucky has a population of 12,618 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Caldwell County, Kentucky?
Median household income in Caldwell County, Kentucky is $59,583 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Caldwell County, Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Caldwell County, Kentucky from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 23 went Republican. The county's typology — "Evangelical Deep South" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.