Estill County, Kentucky
Precinct data
Results by precinct
15 precincts · 6,290 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -B105B105 | 153 | 646 | 13 | 812 | 18.8% | 79.6% | R+60.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -C106C106 | 130 | 637 | 16 | 783 | 16.6% | 81.4% | R+64.8 |
| Precinct -C103C103 | 129 | 601 | 11 | 741 | 17.4% | 81.1% | R+63.7 |
| Precinct -C104C104 | 72 | 462 | 4 | 538 | 13.4% | 85.9% | R+72.5 |
| Precinct -B102B102 | 73 | 440 | 5 | 518 | 14.1% | 84.9% | R+70.8 |
| Precinct -A106A106 | 87 | 401 | 4 | 492 | 17.7% | 81.5% | R+63.8 |
| Precinct -C105C105 | 62 | 320 | 6 | 388 | 16.0% | 82.5% | R+66.5 |
| Precinct -B103B103 | 57 | 232 | 3 | 292 | 19.5% | 79.5% | R+59.9 |
| Precinct -A105A105 | 58 | 218 | 3 | 279 | 20.8% | 78.1% | R+57.3 |
| Precinct -B104B104 | 42 | 228 | 7 | 277 | 15.2% | 82.3% | R+67.1 |
| Precinct -A102A102 | 56 | 206 | 2 | 264 | 21.2% | 78.0% | R+56.8 |
| Precinct -A104A104 | 51 | 204 | 2 | 257 | 19.8% | 79.4% | R+59.5 |
| Precinct -B106B106 | 41 | 195 | 4 | 240 | 17.1% | 81.3% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct -A101A101 | 61 | 147 | 2 | 210 | 29.0% | 70.0% | R+41.0 |
| Precinct -A103A103 | 42 | 154 | 3 | 199 | 21.1% | 77.4% | R+56.3 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −3.8% |
| 1896 | −10.7% |
| 1900 | −13.8% |
| 1904 | −19.7% |
| 1908 | −19.9% |
| 1912 | +0.3% |
| 1916 | −12.6% |
| 1920 | −16.6% |
| 1924 | −2.3% |
| 1928 | −31.7% |
| 1932 | +3.0% |
| 1936 | −5.1% |
| 1940 | −5.5% |
| 1944 | −10.9% |
| 1948 | −2.9% |
| 1952 | −16.0% |
| 1956 | −21.2% |
| 1960 | −29.7% |
| 1964 | +2.7% |
| 1968 | −23.4% |
| 1972 | −39.4% |
| 1976 | −5.0% |
| 1980 | −17.5% |
| 1984 | −37.5% |
| 1988 | −28.9% |
| 1992 | −12.2% |
| 1996 | −11.1% |
| 2000 | −30.6% |
| 2004 | −31.0% |
| 2008 | −40.1% |
| 2012 | −46.2% |
| 2016 | −56.4% |
| 2020 | −57.3% |
| 2024 | −63.2% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 24.0%1,110 | 76.0%3,511 | 4,621 |
| 2020 | R | 23.2%1,515 | 73.2%4,783 | 6,537 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 32 points more Democratic.
10,604 registered voters · 2024
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+124 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +139 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $42,400 in average income, against $54,538 for residents who stayed — 22% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+36.0 on average — 27 points more Democratic-leaning than Estill County, KY itself (R+63.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Madison County, KY77R+30.9
- Powell County, KY22R+54.4
- Clark County, KY21R+35.3
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Madison County, KY104
- Fayette County, KY20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −42 |
| 2012 | −124 |
| 2013 | +5 |
| 2014 | +22 |
| 2015 | −30 |
| 2016 | −11 |
| 2017 | −57 |
| 2018 | +19 |
| 2019 | +4 |
| 2021 | +20 |
| 2022 | +65 |
| 2023 | +23 |
| 2024 | +121 |
| 2025 | +124 |
Estill County, nestled in the foothills of the Cumberland Plateau, recorded an R+63.2 presidential margin in 2024, reflecting a decades-long partisan realignment that has made this former swing territory among the most reliably one-sided in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 3.0 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 63.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 63.2 points.
A population of 14,035, a 96% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $46,051 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cocke County and Scott County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Estill County, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/21065/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.