Caldwell County, Missouri: Appalachian Realigners county. In 2024, voted R+61%. Republican peak: R+61 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+61MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Appalachian RealignersAkashic typology
- Population
- 8,9272024 5-year
- Median household income
- $64,8062024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 92.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+8 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Montgomery County, MO · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Caldwell CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Caldwell County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −9.8% |
| 1896 | −1.5% |
| 1900 | −12.6% |
| 1904 | −24.8% |
| 1908 | −16.5% |
| 1912 | +8.1% |
| 1916 | −10.2% |
| 1920 | −25.0% |
| 1924 | −19.2% |
| 1928 | −31.6% |
| 1932 | +4.6% |
| 1936 | −11.4% |
| 1940 | −18.6% |
| 1944 | −25.6% |
| 1948 | −15.0% |
| 1952 | −33.7% |
| 1956 | −25.0% |
| 1960 | −28.4% |
| 1964 | +7.6% |
| 1968 | −25.1% |
| 1972 | −44.0% |
| 1976 | +0.4% |
| 1980 | −23.9% |
| 1984 | −31.9% |
| 1988 | −9.1% |
| 1992 | +4.0% |
| 1996 | +0.7% |
| 2000 | −19.0% |
| 2004 | −22.2% |
| 2008 | −18.4% |
| 2012 | −33.8% |
| 2016 | −55.5% |
| 2020 | −60.2% |
| 2024 | −61.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 888 | 3,771 | 4,703 | ||
| R | 897 | 3,725 | 4,696 | ||
| R | 838 | 3,232 | 4,312 | ||
| R | 1,312 | 2,721 | 4,167 | ||
| R | 1,814 | 2,654 | 4,564 | ||
| R | 1,645 | 2,593 | 4,268 | ||
| R | 1,488 | 2,220 | 3,850 | ||
| D | 1,487 | 1,464 | 3,468 | ||
| D | 1,456 | 1,295 | 4,055 | ||
| R | 1,726 | 2,074 | 3,814 | ||
| R | 1,382 | 2,678 | 4,060 | ||
| R | 1,541 | 2,551 | 4,226 | ||
| D | 2,113 | 2,094 | 4,233 | ||
| R | 1,231 | 3,167 | 4,398 | ||
| R | 1,490 | 2,631 | 4,551 | ||
| D | 2,475 | 2,125 | 4,600 | ||
| R | 1,736 | 3,115 | 4,851 | ||
| R | 1,929 | 3,216 | 5,145 | ||
| R | 1,860 | 3,755 | 5,619 | ||
| R | 1,985 | 2,687 | 4,676 | ||
| R | 2,001 | 3,384 | 5,393 | ||
| R | 2,728 | 3,976 | 6,713 | ||
| R | 3,014 | 3,792 | 6,813 | ||
| D | 2,949 | 2,688 | 5,677 | ||
| R | 2,164 | 4,167 | 6,331 | ||
| R | 2,383 | 3,545 | 6,043 | ||
| R | 2,498 | 4,168 | 6,688 | ||
| R | 1,683 | 2,069 | 3,780 | ||
| D | 1,483 | 1,187 | 3,674 | ||
| R | 1,540 | 2,161 | 3,755 | ||
| R | 1,350 | 2,276 | 3,736 | ||
| R | 1,722 | 2,235 | 4,078 | ||
| R | 2,053 | 2,115 | 4,215 | ||
| R | 1,388 | 1,750 | 3,710 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
18.2%
English
14.4%
American
13.4%
Irish
8.7%
Scottish
2.6%
Italian
1.6%
French
1.3%
African American
1.0%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 43.2 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$64,806
Caldwell County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Caldwell County$64,806
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Caldwell County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.3%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1810.3%
Working age (18–64)9.8%
Seniors (65+)15.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.8%
speak English only
Other Indo-European1.2%
Spanish0.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 46.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
With fewer than 9,000 residents and a 2024 presidential margin of R+61.3, Caldwell County sits among Missouri's most heavily one-sided rural counties, where Republican margins have widened steadily over the past two decades.
The unraveling was not abrupt. The Democratic margin peaked at eight points in 1912 and narrowed across the late twentieth century. The 2000 election carried the county to the Republican party for the first time in many years, by nineteen points. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved one point toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was sixty-one points.
The economic context is severe: a median household income of $64,806 — among the lowest at this geographic scale — and a 10% poverty rate. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Montgomery County and Crawford County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Caldwell County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29025/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More appalachian realigners counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Caldwell County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Caldwell County, Missouri voted Republican by 61.3 points (R+61), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 4,703 votes cast, 888 went Democratic and 3,771 went Republican.
What is Caldwell County, Missouri's political typology?
Akashic places Caldwell County, Missouri in the "Appalachian Realigners" typology — Lower-income counties of Greater Appalachia — a long, deep arc from Democratic to Republican. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 6 times, Republican 28 times, and other 0 times.
When did Caldwell County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Caldwell County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Caldwell County, Missouri?
Caldwell County, Missouri has a population of 8,927 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Caldwell County, Missouri?
Median household income in Caldwell County, Missouri is $64,806 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Caldwell County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Caldwell County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 28 went Republican. The county's typology — "Appalachian Realigners" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.