HarrisDemocratic31.0%36,965TrumpRepublican67.7%80,796OliverLibertarian0.8%947
R+36.7- Lead
- 43,831
- Total
- 119,314
- vs nation
- R+35.3
- Turnout
- 68.2%
Akashiccounty
Jefferson County, MO
Contests in this Place (89 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.2% of 176,458 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic32.3%37,856TrumpRepublican65.7%77,046JorgensenLibertarian1.4%1,635
R+33.4- Lead
- 39,190
- Total
- 117,286
- vs nation
- R+37.9
- Turnout
- 87.4%
ClintonDemocratic29.5%31,568TrumpRepublican64.5%69,036JohnsonLibertarian3.7%3,968
R+35.0- Lead
- 37,468
- Total
- 106,995
- vs nation
- R+37.1
- Turnout
- 64.7%
ObamaDemocratic42.4%41,564RomneyRepublican55.1%53,978GrayLibertarian1.7%1,715
R+12.7- Lead
- 12,414
- Total
- 98,024
- vs nation
- R+16.5
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic50.6%53,467McCainRepublican48.1%50,804OtherAll other candidates1.4%1,433
D+2.5- Lead
- 2,663
- Total
- 105,704
- vs nation
- R+4.8
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic49.4%46,057BushRepublican50.0%46,624OtherAll other candidates0.6%583
R+0.6- Lead
- 567
- Total
- 93,264
- vs nation
- D+1.8
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.0%38,616BushRepublican47.6%36,766NaderGreen1.5%1,182
D+2.4- Lead
- 1,850
- Total
- 77,204
- vs nation
- D+1.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic48.5%32,073DoleRepublican36.1%23,877PerotReform13.5%8,893
D+12.4- Lead
- 8,196
- Total
- 66,102
- vs nation
- D+3.9
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+36.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 229,4582024 5-year
- Population density
- 350 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 656 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $82,8512024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+41.1 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+36.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Stark County, OH · twin score 77.3
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 68.2%120,381 participants ÷ 176,458 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +35.3 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- +16.2 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 33.0%–45.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 120,381 | 176,458 ± 732 | 68.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 90,705 | 173,875 ± 707 | 52.2% | Audited | A/A |
| 149,865 | 171,401 ± 629 | 87.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 91,266 | 169,065 ± 549 | 54.0% | Audited | A/A |
| 108,350 | 167,570 ± 422 | 64.7% | Audited | A/A | |
| 98,024 | 162,016 | 60.5% | Derived | — | |
| 105,704 | 159,436 | 66.3% | Derived | — | |
| 93,264 | 156,856 extrapolated | 59.5% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 51 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
51 precincts · 119,314 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -SECKMAN MIDDLE SCHOOLSECKMAN MIDDLE SCHOOL | 1,338 | 2,800 | 46 | 4,184 | 32.0% | 66.9% | R+34.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -WINDSOR INTERMEDIATE SCHOOLWINDSOR INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL | 1,317 | 2,725 | 57 | 4,099 | 32.1% | 66.5% | R+34.3 |
| Precinct -GEORGE GUFFEY ELEM SCHOOLGEORGE GUFFEY ELEM SCHOOL | 1,386 | 2,301 | 57 | 3,744 | 37.0% | 61.5% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -JEFFERSON HIGH SCHOOLJEFFERSON HIGH SCHOOL | 1,001 | 2,588 | 36 | 3,625 | 27.6% | 71.4% | R+43.8 |
| Precinct -SIMPSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOLSIMPSON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL | 1,187 | 2,296 | 56 | 3,539 | 33.5% | 64.9% | R+31.3 |
| Precinct -GRACELIFE CHAPELGRACELIFE CHAPEL | 917 | 2,442 | 35 | 3,394 | 27.0% | 72.0% | R+44.9 |
| Precinct -FIRST UNITED METHODIST CHURCHFIRST UNITED METHODIST CHURCH | 1,048 | 2,073 | 43 | 3,164 | 33.1% | 65.5% | R+32.4 |
| Precinct -ST PAUL'S LUTHERN CHURCHST PAUL'S LUTHERN CHURCH | 981 | 2,133 | 37 | 3,151 | 31.1% | 67.7% | R+36.6 |
| Precinct -DE SOTO ELKS LODGEDE SOTO ELKS LODGE | 936 | 2,084 | 39 | 3,059 | 30.6% | 68.1% | R+37.5 |
| Precinct -AMERICAN LEGION POST 283AMERICAN LEGION POST 283 | 963 | 2,035 | 41 | 3,039 | 31.7% | 67.0% | R+35.3 |
| Precinct -BIG RIVER VFW POST 5331BIG RIVER VFW POST 5331 | 831 | 2,183 | 25 | 3,039 | 27.3% | 71.8% | R+44.5 |
| Precinct -MURPHY ELEMENTARY SCHOOLMURPHY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL | 1,048 | 1,931 | 46 | 3,025 | 34.6% | 63.8% | R+29.2 |
| Precinct -WINDSOR LIBRARY JCWINDSOR LIBRARY JC | 913 | 2,004 | 47 | 2,964 | 30.8% | 67.6% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -PEVELY CITY HALLPEVELY CITY HALL | 884 | 2,023 | 39 | 2,946 | 30.0% | 68.7% | R+38.7 |
| Precinct -BROOKDALE FARMSBROOKDALE FARMS | 1,007 | 1,889 | 34 | 2,930 | 34.4% | 64.5% | R+30.1 |
| Precinct -HERCULANEUM AMVETS POST 42HERCULANEUM AMVETS POST 42 | 847 | 1,995 | 38 | 2,880 | 29.4% | 69.3% | R+39.9 |
| Precinct -ANTONIA MIDDLE SCHOOLANTONIA MIDDLE SCHOOL | 842 | 1,997 | 33 | 2,872 | 29.3% | 69.5% | R+40.2 |
| Precinct -ARNOLD VFW 2593ARNOLD VFW 2593 | 1,016 | 1,776 | 49 | 2,841 | 35.8% | 62.5% | R+26.8 |
| Precinct -RIDGEWOOD MIDDLE SCHOOLRIDGEWOOD MIDDLE SCHOOL | 927 | 1,846 | 37 | 2,810 | 33.0% | 65.7% | R+32.7 |
| Precinct -ARNOLD RECREATION CTRARNOLD RECREATION CTR | 938 | 1,732 | 46 | 2,716 | 34.5% | 63.8% | R+29.2 |
| Precinct -BRENNAN WOODS ELEM SCHOOLBRENNAN WOODS ELEM SCHOOL | 906 | 1,764 | 34 | 2,704 | 33.5% | 65.2% | R+31.7 |
| Precinct -ST. JOHN'S LUTHERN CHURCHST. JOHN'S LUTHERN CHURCH | 814 | 1,731 | 32 | 2,577 | 31.6% | 67.2% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct -NEW HOPE FELLOWSHIPNEW HOPE FELLOWSHIP | 808 | 1,713 | 30 | 2,551 | 31.7% | 67.2% | R+35.5 |
| Precinct -MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAGLESMISSISSIPPI RIVER EAGLES | 843 | 1,604 | 34 | 2,481 | 34.0% | 64.7% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -ATHENA ELEMENTARY SCHOOLATHENA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL | 635 | 1,806 | 37 | 2,478 | 25.6% | 72.9% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -FOX C6 SERVICE CTRFOX C6 SERVICE CTR | 753 | 1,501 | 27 | 2,281 | 33.0% | 65.8% | R+32.8 |
| Precinct -SUNRISE SCHOOLSUNRISE SCHOOL | 615 | 1,535 | 23 | 2,173 | 28.3% | 70.6% | R+42.3 |
| Precinct -NW EARLY CHILDHOOD CTRNW EARLY CHILDHOOD CTR | 603 | 1,490 | 28 | 2,121 | 28.4% | 70.2% | R+41.8 |
| Precinct -HILLSBORO CHRISTIAN CHURCHHILLSBORO CHRISTIAN CHURCH | 559 | 1,500 | 27 | 2,086 | 26.8% | 71.9% | R+45.1 |
| Precinct -TRANSFORMATION METHODIST CHURCHTRANSFORMATION METHODIST CHURCH | 582 | 1,427 | 29 | 2,038 | 28.6% | 70.0% | R+41.5 |
| Precinct -COMPASS HEALTH NETWORKCOMPASS HEALTH NETWORK | 675 | 1,300 | 26 | 2,001 | 33.7% | 65.0% | R+31.2 |
| Precinct -HILLSBORO CIVIC CENTERHILLSBORO CIVIC CENTER | 513 | 1,455 | 24 | 1,992 | 25.8% | 73.0% | R+47.3 |
| Precinct -FESTUS SCHOOL-PERFORMING ARTS CENTERFESTUS SCHOOL-PERFORMING ARTS CENTER | 635 | 1,308 | 17 | 1,960 | 32.4% | 66.7% | R+34.3 |
| Precinct -NORTHWEST HIGH SCHOOLNORTHWEST HIGH SCHOOL | 575 | 1,320 | 25 | 1,920 | 29.9% | 68.8% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -FAITH BAPTIST CHURCHFAITH BAPTIST CHURCH | 544 | 1,279 | 15 | 1,838 | 29.6% | 69.6% | R+40.0 |
| Precinct -WOODRIDGE MIDDLE SCHOOLWOODRIDGE MIDDLE SCHOOL | 548 | 1,248 | 29 | 1,825 | 30.0% | 68.4% | R+38.4 |
| Precinct -ST. MARTIN'S UNITED CHURCH OF CHRISTST. MARTIN'S UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST | 443 | 1,302 | 26 | 1,771 | 25.0% | 73.5% | R+48.5 |
| Precinct -CLYDE HAMRICK ELEM SCHOOLCLYDE HAMRICK ELEM SCHOOL | 525 | 1,161 | 26 | 1,712 | 30.7% | 67.8% | R+37.1 |
| Precinct -REDEEMER LUTHERN CHURCHREDEEMER LUTHERN CHURCH | 426 | 1,098 | 19 | 1,543 | 27.6% | 71.2% | R+43.6 |
| Precinct -SALVATION ARMY WORSHIP CENTERSALVATION ARMY WORSHIP CENTER | 529 | 990 | 21 | 1,540 | 34.4% | 64.3% | R+29.9 |
| Precinct -LONEDELL ELEM SCHOOLLONEDELL ELEM SCHOOL | 512 | 993 | 22 | 1,527 | 33.5% | 65.0% | R+31.5 |
| Precinct -GRANDVIEW MIDDLE SCHOOLGRANDVIEW MIDDLE SCHOOL | 388 | 1,106 | 22 | 1,516 | 25.6% | 73.0% | R+47.4 |
| Precinct -SALINE VALLEY FIREHOUSE #1SALINE VALLEY FIREHOUSE #1 | 508 | 897 | 19 | 1,424 | 35.7% | 63.0% | R+27.3 |
| Precinct -HEMATITE CHRISTIAN CHURCHHEMATITE CHRISTIAN CHURCH | 403 | 963 | 14 | 1,380 | 29.2% | 69.8% | R+40.6 |
| Precinct -HILLSBORO CITY HALLHILLSBORO CITY HALL | 345 | 980 | 24 | 1,349 | 25.6% | 72.6% | R+47.1 |
| Precinct -MERAMEC HEIGHTS ELEM SCHOOLMERAMEC HEIGHTS ELEM SCHOOL | 416 | 846 | 17 | 1,279 | 32.5% | 66.1% | R+33.6 |
| Precinct -PACIFIC FIREHOUSE3PACIFIC FIREHOUSE3 | 398 | 756 | 21 | 1,175 | 33.9% | 64.3% | R+30.5 |
| Precinct -CIA HALLCIA HALL | 273 | 826 | 12 | 1,111 | 24.6% | 74.3% | R+49.8 |
| Precinct -LIBERTY FELLOWSHIP CHURCHLIBERTY FELLOWSHIP CHURCH | 243 | 758 | 10 | 1,011 | 24.0% | 75.0% | R+50.9 |
| Precinct -FESTUS K.C. HALLFESTUS K.C. HALL | 363 | 599 | 17 | 979 | 37.1% | 61.2% | R+24.1 |
| Precinct -DE SOTO K.C. HALLDE SOTO K.C. HALL | 258 | 687 | 5 | 950 | 27.2% | 72.3% | R+45.2 |
presidential history
Party record book
Jefferson County, MO · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
70.6%
18,916 votes · D+41.1
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 63.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
67.7%
80,796 votes · R+36.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 65.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
53,467votes
50.6% of the vote · D+2.5
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 46,057 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
80,796votes
67.7% of the vote · R+36.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 77,046 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Adlai Stevenson1956
+28.2pts D vs U.S.
Place D+12.8 · U.S. R+15.4
Runner-up · Adlai Stevenson, 1952 · +25.0 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+37.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+33.4 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2016 · +37.1 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RMike HendersonState Senate · 3
RMary Elizabeth ColemanState Senate · 22
RCecelie WilliamsState House · 111
RRenee ReuterState House · 112
RBill LucasState House · 115
Seats representing Jefferson County, MO. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 2 congressional, 2 state senate and 4 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 1 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | R | 39.8%34,326 | 60.2%51,814 | 86,140 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 148,840 |
| 2018 | 148,993 |
| 2020 | 159,219 |
| 2022 | 160,337 |
| 2024 | 161,584 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,000 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +6,467 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $60,160 in average income, against $75,669 for residents who stayed — 20% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+9.7 on average — 46 points more Democratic-leaning than Jefferson County, MO itself (R+36.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- St. Louis County, MO2,205D+23.4
- St. Louis city, MO508D+64.6
- St. Charles County, MO283R+17.0
- St. Francois County, MO227R+51.4
- Franklin County, MO219R+45.9
- St. Clair County, IL126D+7.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- St. Louis County, MO1,779
- St. Louis city, MO351
- Franklin County, MO283
- St. Francois County, MO266
- St. Charles County, MO253
- Madison County, IL94
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −467 |
| 2012 | −576 |
| 2013 | +225 |
| 2014 | +369 |
| 2015 | +496 |
| 2016 | −359 |
| 2017 | −125 |
| 2018 | +201 |
| 2019 | +329 |
| 2021 | +1,082 |
| 2022 | +1,518 |
| 2023 | +1,957 |
| 2024 | +817 |
| 2025 | +1,000 |
Once a competitive swing county on St. Louis's southern fringe, Jefferson has moved decisively toward Republican presidential candidates since 2000, reflecting a broader realignment among working-class white voters in Missouri's outer suburbs.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.1 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 36.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.7 points.
A population of 229,458, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $82,851 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Stark County and Monroe County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Stark County
Ohio
77.3twin score
2004–2008 trajectorypopulation scale12-yr trend≠ Italian ancestry
Monroe County
Michigan
76.9twin score
2000–2008 trajectory12-yr trend≠ Polish ancestry
Oswego County
New York
76.4twin score
2000–2008 trajectory12-yr trend≠ Italian ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Jefferson County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29099/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Jefferson County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Jefferson County, Missouri voted Republican by 36.7 points (R+36.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 119,314 votes cast, 36,965 went Democratic and 80,796 went Republican.
When did Jefferson County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Jefferson County, Missouri voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Jefferson County, Missouri?
Jefferson County, Missouri has a population of 229,458 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Jefferson County, Missouri?
Median household income in Jefferson County, Missouri is $82,851 — above the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Jefferson County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Jefferson County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.