Lincoln County, Missouri: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+56%. Republican peak: R+56 in 2024.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+56MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 63,0572024 5-year
- Median household income
- $89,2782024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 92.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+47 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+56 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Madison County, MO · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Lincoln CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Lincoln County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
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Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | +28.7% |
| 1896 | +31.4% |
| 1900 | +27.2% |
| 1904 | +21.7% |
| 1908 | +22.2% |
| 1912 | +28.2% |
| 1916 | +20.0% |
| 1920 | +6.5% |
| 1924 | +13.9% |
| 1928 | +10.4% |
| 1932 | +46.6% |
| 1936 | +34.2% |
| 1940 | +18.5% |
| 1944 | +12.9% |
| 1948 | +32.4% |
| 1952 | +7.5% |
| 1956 | +12.3% |
| 1960 | +4.4% |
| 1964 | +37.5% |
| 1968 | −0.6% |
| 1972 | −29.6% |
| 1976 | +11.0% |
| 1980 | −9.1% |
| 1984 | −30.2% |
| 1988 | −7.0% |
| 1992 | +13.6% |
| 1996 | +5.9% |
| 2000 | −10.0% |
| 2004 | −14.9% |
| 2008 | −11.4% |
| 2012 | −29.0% |
| 2016 | −50.1% |
| 2020 | −52.4% |
| 2024 | −55.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 6,908 | 24,866 | 32,133 | ||
| R | 6,607 | 21,848 | 29,065 | ||
| R | 5,575 | 18,159 | 25,114 | ||
| R | 7,734 | 14,332 | 22,776 | ||
| R | 10,234 | 12,924 | 23,550 | ||
| R | 8,368 | 11,316 | 19,839 | ||
| R | 6,961 | 8,549 | 15,913 | ||
| D | 5,644 | 4,897 | 12,611 | ||
| D | 5,453 | 3,718 | 12,765 | ||
| R | 4,605 | 5,305 | 9,938 | ||
| R | 3,290 | 6,137 | 9,427 | ||
| R | 4,110 | 4,963 | 9,335 | ||
| D | 4,473 | 3,581 | 8,140 | ||
| R | 2,784 | 5,127 | 7,911 | ||
| R | 3,142 | 3,185 | 7,624 | ||
| D | 4,993 | 2,271 | 7,264 | ||
| D | 3,793 | 3,471 | 7,264 | ||
| D | 3,990 | 3,114 | 7,104 | ||
| D | 4,020 | 3,458 | 7,487 | ||
| D | 4,190 | 2,135 | 6,336 | ||
| D | 3,773 | 2,910 | 6,698 | ||
| D | 4,420 | 3,035 | 7,480 | ||
| D | 4,625 | 2,258 | 6,924 | ||
| D | 4,428 | 1,604 | 6,061 | ||
| D | 3,356 | 2,722 | 6,088 | ||
| D | 3,419 | 2,563 | 6,157 | ||
| D | 3,660 | 3,209 | 6,909 | ||
| D | 2,468 | 1,642 | 4,140 | ||
| D | 2,326 | 1,258 | 3,793 | ||
| D | 2,555 | 1,620 | 4,207 | ||
| D | 2,295 | 1,462 | 3,835 | ||
| D | 2,761 | 1,563 | 4,407 | ||
| D | 3,003 | 1,564 | 4,584 | ||
| D | 2,508 | 1,380 | 3,926 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
28.0%
Irish
14.8%
English
9.8%
American
6.4%
Italian
4.2%
Polish
2.9%
French
2.4%
African American
1.5%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$89,278
Lincoln County ranks in the top 10% of US counties.
Lincoln County$89,278
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Lincoln County ranks in the top 10% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.2%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1811.6%
Working age (18–64)9.7%
Seniors (65+)11.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.3%
speak English only
Spanish1.7%
Other Indo-European0.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 70.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Situated on the northern fringe of the St. Louis metro, Lincoln County has shifted sharply rightward over two decades as rural identity overtook its modest suburban growth, delivering presidential margins above 50 points in recent cycles.
The Democratic margin here peaked at forty-seven points in 1932. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved three points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was fifty-six points.
A population of 63,057, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $89,278 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Madison County and Fayette County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lincoln County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29113/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Lincoln County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lincoln County, Missouri voted Republican by 55.9 points (R+56), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 32,133 votes cast, 6,908 went Democratic and 24,866 went Republican.
What is Lincoln County, Missouri's political typology?
Akashic places Lincoln County, Missouri in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 22 times, Republican 12 times, and other 0 times.
When did Lincoln County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lincoln County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Lincoln County, Missouri?
Lincoln County, Missouri has a population of 63,057 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lincoln County, Missouri?
Median household income in Lincoln County, Missouri is $89,278 — above the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Lincoln County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lincoln County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 22 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.