Warren County, Missouri
Precinct data
Results by precinct
22 precincts · 20,095 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -HICKORY GROVE NORTHHICKORY GROVE NORTH | 568 | 1,683 | 21 | 2,272 | 25.0% | 74.1% | R+49.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -SOUTH ELKHORN/MACEDONIASOUTH ELKHORN/MACEDONIA | 324 | 1,157 | 11 | 1,492 | 21.7% | 77.5% | R+55.8 |
| Precinct -WRIGHT CITY WARD 2WRIGHT CITY WARD 2 | 374 | 1,063 | 18 | 1,455 | 25.7% | 73.1% | R+47.4 |
| Precinct -WARRENTON WARD 1WARRENTON WARD 1 | 346 | 980 | 18 | 1,344 | 25.7% | 72.9% | R+47.2 |
| Precinct -WRIGHT CITY WARD 1WRIGHT CITY WARD 1 | 374 | 926 | 17 | 1,317 | 28.4% | 70.3% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -PENDLETON/VILLAGE OF PENDLETONPENDLETON/VILLAGE OF PENDLETON | 271 | 995 | 11 | 1,277 | 21.2% | 77.9% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct -WARRENTON WARD 2WARRENTON WARD 2 | 343 | 905 | 19 | 1,267 | 27.1% | 71.4% | R+44.4 |
| Precinct -DUTZOWDUTZOW | 289 | 919 | 9 | 1,217 | 23.7% | 75.5% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct -WARRENTON WARD 3WARRENTON WARD 3 | 316 | 854 | 18 | 1,188 | 26.6% | 71.9% | R+45.3 |
| Precinct -HICKORY GROVE SOUTHHICKORY GROVE SOUTH | 230 | 735 | 10 | 975 | 23.6% | 75.4% | R+51.8 |
| Precinct -MARTHASVILLE EAST/SWMARTHASVILLE EAST/SW | 190 | 622 | 6 | 818 | 23.2% | 76.0% | R+52.8 |
| Precinct -LAKE SHERWOODLAKE SHERWOOD | 258 | 535 | 4 | 797 | 32.4% | 67.1% | R+34.8 |
| Precinct -HOPEWELLHOPEWELL | 178 | 603 | 14 | 795 | 22.4% | 75.8% | R+53.5 |
| Precinct -NORTH ELKHORNNORTH ELKHORN | 170 | 523 | 9 | 702 | 24.2% | 74.5% | R+50.3 |
| Precinct -WEEKSWEEKS | 139 | 531 | 4 | 674 | 20.6% | 78.8% | R+58.2 |
| Precinct -HOLSTEIN/SMITH CREEKHOLSTEIN/SMITH CREEK | 83 | 345 | 4 | 432 | 19.2% | 79.9% | R+60.6 |
| Precinct -INNSBROOKINNSBROOK | 143 | 275 | 3 | 421 | 34.0% | 65.3% | R+31.4 |
| Precinct -WALNUT GROVEWALNUT GROVE | 97 | 315 | 3 | 415 | 23.4% | 75.9% | R+52.5 |
| Precinct -TRUESDALETRUESDALE | 83 | 323 | 2 | 408 | 20.3% | 79.2% | R+58.8 |
| Precinct -CONCORD HILLCONCORD HILL | 80 | 310 | 6 | 396 | 20.2% | 78.3% | R+58.1 |
| Precinct -LAKEVIEWLAKEVIEW | 73 | 212 | 3 | 288 | 25.3% | 73.6% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct -GORE CASEGORE CASE | 41 | 104 | 0 | 145 | 28.3% | 71.7% | R+43.4 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −32.2% |
| 1896 | −41.6% |
| 1900 | −45.6% |
| 1904 | −54.0% |
| 1908 | −54.6% |
| 1912 | −31.1% |
| 1916 | −55.4% |
| 1920 | −71.8% |
| 1924 | −57.7% |
| 1928 | −44.5% |
| 1932 | −13.1% |
| 1936 | −34.6% |
| 1940 | −57.3% |
| 1944 | −57.2% |
| 1948 | −37.7% |
| 1952 | −45.5% |
| 1956 | −40.4% |
| 1960 | −35.4% |
| 1964 | −9.9% |
| 1968 | −38.3% |
| 1972 | −48.5% |
| 1976 | −19.3% |
| 1980 | −33.1% |
| 1984 | −44.8% |
| 1988 | −20.5% |
| 1992 | +3.0% |
| 1996 | −3.8% |
| 2000 | −13.5% |
| 2004 | −18.0% |
| 2008 | −12.6% |
| 2012 | −26.8% |
| 2016 | −45.6% |
| 2020 | −45.9% |
| 2024 | −49.5% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 22,584 |
| 2018 | 22,504 |
| 2020 | 24,943 |
| 2022 | 25,881 |
| 2024 | 28,204 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+471 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +5,085 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $59,394 in average income, against $79,350 for residents who stayed — 25% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+21.7 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Warren County, MO itself (R+49.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- St. Charles County, MO545R+17.0
- Lincoln County, MO154R+55.9
- St. Louis County, MO113D+23.4
- Franklin County, MO73R+45.9
- Montgomery County, MO52R+60.1
- Jefferson County, MO29R+36.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- St. Charles County, MO330
- Lincoln County, MO162
- St. Louis County, MO96
- Franklin County, MO82
- Montgomery County, MO56
- Jefferson County, MO20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −150 |
| 2012 | +24 |
| 2013 | +69 |
| 2014 | +118 |
| 2015 | +210 |
| 2016 | +209 |
| 2017 | +436 |
| 2018 | +238 |
| 2019 | +771 |
| 2021 | +883 |
| 2022 | +726 |
| 2023 | +474 |
| 2024 | +606 |
| 2025 | +471 |
Warren County's R+49.5 presidential margin in 2024 places it among Missouri's most lopsided exurban counties, reflecting the broad rural and small-town realignment that has reshaped the state's political map over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 3.0 points in 1992 and a Republican high of 71.8 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 49.5 points.
A population of 37,177, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,209 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lincoln County and Livingston County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Warren County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29219/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.