Warren County, Missouri: Farm Belt county. In 2024, voted R+49%. Republican peak: R+72 in 1920.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+49MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Farm BeltAkashic typology
- Population
- 37,1772024 5-year
- Median household income
- $81,2092024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 89.9%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+3 in 1992MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+72 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Franklin County, MO · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Warren CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Warren County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −32.2% |
| 1896 | −41.6% |
| 1900 | −45.6% |
| 1904 | −54.0% |
| 1908 | −54.6% |
| 1912 | −31.1% |
| 1916 | −55.4% |
| 1920 | −71.8% |
| 1924 | −57.7% |
| 1928 | −44.5% |
| 1932 | −13.1% |
| 1936 | −34.6% |
| 1940 | −57.3% |
| 1944 | −57.2% |
| 1948 | −37.7% |
| 1952 | −45.5% |
| 1956 | −40.4% |
| 1960 | −35.4% |
| 1964 | −9.9% |
| 1968 | −38.3% |
| 1972 | −48.5% |
| 1976 | −19.3% |
| 1980 | −33.1% |
| 1984 | −44.8% |
| 1988 | −20.5% |
| 1992 | +3.0% |
| 1996 | −3.8% |
| 2000 | −13.5% |
| 2004 | −18.0% |
| 2008 | −12.6% |
| 2012 | −26.8% |
| 2016 | −45.6% |
| 2020 | −45.9% |
| 2024 | −49.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 4,970 | 14,915 | 20,166 | ||
| R | 4,769 | 13,222 | 18,416 | ||
| R | 3,915 | 11,111 | 15,784 | ||
| R | 5,219 | 9,150 | 14,676 | ||
| R | 6,705 | 8,675 | 15,576 | ||
| R | 5,461 | 7,883 | 13,432 | ||
| R | 4,524 | 5,979 | 10,740 | ||
| R | 3,443 | 3,768 | 8,607 | ||
| D | 3,213 | 2,953 | 8,659 | ||
| R | 2,935 | 4,452 | 7,411 | ||
| R | 1,964 | 5,150 | 7,114 | ||
| R | 2,132 | 4,366 | 6,743 | ||
| R | 2,164 | 3,214 | 5,430 | ||
| R | 1,225 | 3,530 | 4,755 | ||
| R | 1,033 | 2,669 | 4,267 | ||
| R | 1,903 | 2,323 | 4,226 | ||
| R | 1,407 | 2,946 | 4,353 | ||
| R | 1,211 | 2,852 | 4,063 | ||
| R | 1,112 | 2,977 | 4,097 | ||
| R | 1,071 | 2,380 | 3,468 | ||
| R | 815 | 3,017 | 3,847 | ||
| R | 914 | 3,403 | 4,344 | ||
| R | 1,277 | 2,639 | 3,941 | ||
| R | 1,513 | 1,974 | 3,516 | ||
| R | 999 | 2,610 | 3,620 | ||
| R | 644 | 2,667 | 3,508 | ||
| R | 545 | 3,512 | 4,133 | ||
| R | 487 | 1,752 | 2,285 | ||
| R | 431 | 1,067 | 2,044 | ||
| R | 484 | 1,714 | 2,251 | ||
| R | 435 | 1,537 | 2,041 | ||
| R | 579 | 1,599 | 2,238 | ||
| R | 691 | 1,680 | 2,378 | ||
| R | 685 | 1,360 | 2,097 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
33.2%
Irish
12.1%
English
11.7%
Italian
4.4%
American
3.2%
French
3.0%
Polish
1.7%
African American
0.9%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$81,209
Warren County ranks in the top 25% of US counties.
Warren County$81,209
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Warren County ranks in the top 25% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
8.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 189.1%
Working age (18–64)7.9%
Seniors (65+)6.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.2%
speak English only
Spanish1.9%
Other Indo-European0.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 62.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Warren County's R+49.5 presidential margin in 2024 places it among Missouri's most lopsided exurban counties, reflecting the broad rural and small-town realignment that has reshaped the state's political map over the past decade.
The Republican margin here reached seventy-two points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved three points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was forty-nine points.
A population of 37,177, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,209 describe an agricultural county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Franklin County and Morgan County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Warren County, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/29219/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More farm belt counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Warren County, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Warren County, Missouri voted Republican by 49.3 points (R+49), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 20,166 votes cast, 4,970 went Democratic and 14,915 went Republican.
What is Warren County, Missouri's political typology?
Akashic places Warren County, Missouri in the "Farm Belt" typology — Rural Plains and Midwest farm counties — Republican, with modest recent movement. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 1 times, Republican 33 times, and other 0 times.
When did Warren County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Warren County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Warren County, Missouri?
Warren County, Missouri has a population of 37,177 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Warren County, Missouri?
Median household income in Warren County, Missouri is $81,209 — above the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Warren County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Warren County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 1 went Democratic and 33 went Republican. The county's typology — "Farm Belt" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.