Caldwell County, North Carolina
Precinct data
Results by precinct
15 precincts · 43,540 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -1313 | 936 | 3,212 | 39 | 4,187 | 22.4% | 76.7% | R+54.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -11 | 887 | 3,158 | 24 | 4,069 | 21.8% | 77.6% | R+55.8 |
| Precinct -66 | 1,577 | 2,189 | 28 | 3,794 | 41.6% | 57.7% | R+16.1 |
| Precinct -1414 | 875 | 2,845 | 53 | 3,773 | 23.2% | 75.4% | R+52.2 |
| Precinct -1010 | 567 | 2,502 | 18 | 3,087 | 18.4% | 81.0% | R+62.7 |
| Precinct -77 | 1,158 | 1,871 | 53 | 3,082 | 37.6% | 60.7% | R+23.1 |
| Precinct -1212 | 493 | 2,460 | 21 | 2,974 | 16.6% | 82.7% | R+66.1 |
| Precinct -1111 | 671 | 2,111 | 21 | 2,803 | 23.9% | 75.3% | R+51.4 |
| Precinct -44 | 375 | 2,351 | 15 | 2,741 | 13.7% | 85.8% | R+72.1 |
| Precinct -99 | 530 | 2,189 | 21 | 2,740 | 19.3% | 79.9% | R+60.5 |
| Precinct -22 | 370 | 1,919 | 7 | 2,296 | 16.1% | 83.6% | R+67.5 |
| Precinct -88 | 493 | 1,660 | 21 | 2,174 | 22.7% | 76.4% | R+53.7 |
| Precinct -55 | 561 | 1,522 | 32 | 2,115 | 26.5% | 72.0% | R+45.4 |
| Precinct -1515 | 277 | 1,588 | 11 | 1,876 | 14.8% | 84.6% | R+69.9 |
| Precinct -33 | 376 | 1,432 | 21 | 1,829 | 20.6% | 78.3% | R+57.7 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +26.3% |
| 1896 | +18.7% |
| 1900 | −8.4% |
| 1904 | −9.5% |
| 1908 | −10.5% |
| 1912 | +34.8% |
| 1916 | +2.0% |
| 1920 | −5.9% |
| 1924 | +14.4% |
| 1928 | −29.5% |
| 1932 | +18.6% |
| 1936 | +33.1% |
| 1940 | +35.6% |
| 1944 | +10.8% |
| 1948 | +0.4% |
| 1952 | −9.7% |
| 1956 | −22.4% |
| 1960 | −14.0% |
| 1964 | +10.8% |
| 1968 | −28.1% |
| 1972 | −44.5% |
| 1976 | +9.2% |
| 1980 | −18.9% |
| 1984 | −39.8% |
| 1988 | −31.7% |
| 1992 | −13.7% |
| 1996 | −20.1% |
| 2000 | −33.5% |
| 2004 | −35.7% |
| 2008 | −29.7% |
| 2012 | −35.5% |
| 2016 | −50.1% |
| 2020 | −51.1% |
| 2024 | −52.5% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 23.0%6,404 | 74.9%20,900 | 27,887 |
| 2020 | R | 24.3%10,288 | 70.8%29,971 | 42,357 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 19 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 51,294 | 17,878 | 23,246 | 10,129 | 41 |
| 2012 | 54,476 | 17,254 | 24,331 | 12,693 | 198 |
| 2016 | 55,487 | 15,152 | 24,845 | 15,152 | 338 |
| 2020 | 54,808 | 11,402 | 26,559 | 16,385 | 462 |
| 2022 | 54,324 | 10,083 | 26,430 | 17,431 | 380 |
| 2024 | 56,462 | 9,317 | 28,049 | 18,585 | 511 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+656 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +2,735 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $56,902 in average income, against $63,713 for residents who stayed — 11% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+31.8 on average — 21 points more Democratic-leaning than Caldwell County, NC itself (R+52.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Catawba County, NC369R+37.9
- Burke County, NC296R+41.1
- Alexander County, NC73R+59.7
- Watauga County, NC65D+6.0
- Mecklenburg County, NC47D+32.7
- Iredell County, NC35R+32.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Catawba County, NC359
- Burke County, NC287
- Alexander County, NC77
- Mecklenburg County, NC51
- Lincoln County, NC39
- Watauga County, NC29
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −488 |
| 2012 | −355 |
| 2013 | +134 |
| 2014 | −335 |
| 2015 | −23 |
| 2016 | +326 |
| 2017 | +267 |
| 2018 | +228 |
| 2019 | +294 |
| 2021 | +432 |
| 2022 | +403 |
| 2023 | +703 |
| 2024 | +493 |
| 2025 | +656 |
Caldwell County, anchored by Lenoir in the Blue Ridge foothills, has shifted steadily toward one-party dominance over three decades, posting a 52-point Republican presidential margin in 2024 that ranks among the widest in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 35.6 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 52.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 52.5 points.
A population of 80,536, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,425 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Wilkes County and Johnson County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Caldwell County, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/37027/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.