McDowell County, North Carolina
Precinct data
Results by precinct
17 precincts · 23,655 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -WEST MWEST M | 602 | 2,059 | 32 | 2,693 | 22.4% | 76.5% | R+54.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -MAR 1MAR 1 | 670 | 1,619 | 22 | 2,311 | 29.0% | 70.1% | R+41.1 |
| Precinct -NEBONEBO | 505 | 1,604 | 24 | 2,133 | 23.7% | 75.2% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -DYSARTDYSART | 435 | 1,566 | 16 | 2,017 | 21.6% | 77.6% | R+56.1 |
| Precinct -PLEASAPLEASA | 393 | 1,283 | 12 | 1,688 | 23.3% | 76.0% | R+52.7 |
| Precinct -CCREEKCCREEK | 454 | 1,144 | 18 | 1,616 | 28.1% | 70.8% | R+42.7 |
| Precinct -GLENWDGLENWD | 290 | 1,237 | 19 | 1,546 | 18.8% | 80.0% | R+61.3 |
| Precinct -FORT 2FORT 2 | 431 | 996 | 14 | 1,441 | 29.9% | 69.1% | R+39.2 |
| Precinct -M.COVEM.COVE | 268 | 1,074 | 7 | 1,349 | 19.9% | 79.6% | R+59.7 |
| Precinct -HIGGINHIGGIN | 233 | 1,007 | 7 | 1,247 | 18.7% | 80.8% | R+62.1 |
| Precinct -MAR 2MAR 2 | 476 | 551 | 12 | 1,039 | 45.8% | 53.0% | R+7.2 |
| Precinct -FORT 1FORT 1 | 275 | 700 | 12 | 987 | 27.9% | 70.9% | R+43.1 |
| Precinct -MAR 5MAR 5 | 218 | 587 | 6 | 811 | 26.9% | 72.4% | R+45.5 |
| Precinct -MAR 4MAR 4 | 231 | 566 | 7 | 804 | 28.7% | 70.4% | R+41.7 |
| Precinct -MAR 3MAR 3 | 172 | 526 | 8 | 706 | 24.4% | 74.5% | R+50.1 |
| Precinct -N.COVEN.COVE | 146 | 548 | 5 | 699 | 20.9% | 78.4% | R+57.5 |
| Precinct -T.COVET.COVE | 112 | 453 | 3 | 568 | 19.7% | 79.8% | R+60.0 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +17.6% |
| 1896 | +11.8% |
| 1900 | −0.5% |
| 1904 | −5.3% |
| 1908 | −2.6% |
| 1912 | +32.1% |
| 1916 | +2.2% |
| 1920 | +4.6% |
| 1924 | +7.7% |
| 1928 | +0.1% |
| 1932 | +31.8% |
| 1936 | +26.4% |
| 1940 | +41.0% |
| 1944 | +27.9% |
| 1948 | +15.3% |
| 1952 | +0.5% |
| 1956 | −10.9% |
| 1960 | −11.4% |
| 1964 | +20.4% |
| 1968 | −21.3% |
| 1972 | −46.3% |
| 1976 | +16.7% |
| 1980 | −9.2% |
| 1984 | −30.4% |
| 1988 | −18.9% |
| 1992 | −5.9% |
| 1996 | −15.1% |
| 2000 | −31.1% |
| 2004 | −32.9% |
| 2008 | −27.0% |
| 2012 | −31.7% |
| 2016 | −49.8% |
| 2020 | −48.0% |
| 2024 | −49.1% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 24.2%3,895 | 73.3%11,776 | 16,076 |
| 2020 | R | 26.1%5,934 | 69.9%15,894 | 22,747 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 22 points more Democratic.
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 29,280 | 11,868 | 10,376 | 7,030 | 6 |
| 2012 | 28,936 | 10,297 | 10,353 | 8,226 | 60 |
| 2016 | 29,466 | 8,820 | 11,036 | 9,490 | 120 |
| 2020 | 29,932 | 6,844 | 12,673 | 10,216 | 199 |
| 2022 | 29,866 | 5,992 | 12,861 | 10,840 | 173 |
| 2024 | 31,509 | 5,423 | 14,037 | 11,778 | 271 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+107 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +2,627 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $63,631 in average income, against $61,132 for residents who stayed — 4% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+4.4 on average — 45 points more Democratic-leaning than McDowell County, NC itself (R+49.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Buncombe County, NC218D+24.7
- Burke County, NC92R+41.1
- Rutherford County, NC31R+47.7
- Henderson County, NC27R+14.5
- Catawba County, NC26R+37.9
- Mitchell County, NC26R+55.7
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Burke County, NC169
- Buncombe County, NC146
- Rutherford County, NC58
- Mitchell County, NC32
- Catawba County, NC24
- Henderson County, NC23
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −9 |
| 2012 | +5 |
| 2013 | +85 |
| 2014 | +10 |
| 2015 | −22 |
| 2016 | −94 |
| 2017 | +325 |
| 2018 | +404 |
| 2019 | +329 |
| 2021 | +228 |
| 2022 | +471 |
| 2023 | +366 |
| 2024 | +422 |
| 2025 | +107 |
Nestled in the Blue Ridge foothills west of Morganton, McDowell County delivered a 49-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, reflecting the broader rural Appalachian shift that has reshaped western North Carolina's electoral map over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.0 points in 1940 and a Republican high of 49.8 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 49.1 points.
A population of 44,817, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,168 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Grayson County and Greene County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
McDowell County, North Carolina. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/37111/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.