Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupBailey CountyTexasUnited States
Mexican60.9%32.1%11.3%
Honduran3.0%0.8%0.3%
Guatemalan2.0%0.4%0.5%
English5.0%7.9%9.5%
German2.7%8.3%12.5%
American2.4%4.6%5.3%
Irish2.1%6.0%9.4%
Scottish2.0%1.3%1.3%
Italian0.6%1.9%4.8%
Welsh0.3%——
Scotch-Irish0.3%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Bailey County
Texas
United States
Median age
33.3
35.7
39.1
Age 18–24
11.8%
9.7%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
19.6%
13.5%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Bailey County
Texas
United States
Median household income
$61,420
$78,476
$84,427
Poverty rate
12.0%
13.8%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
15.2%
33.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Bailey County
Texas
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
52.7%
35.2%
22.3%
Spanish
49.6%
28.2%
13.6%
German or other West Germanic
2.1%
0.3%
0.5%
Religious landscape
Measure
Bailey County
Texas
United States
Catholic
22.4%
20.1%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
31.7%
23.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
39.6%
45.2%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Bailey County, Texas
Precinct data
Results by precinct
5 precincts · 1,740 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Bailey County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2
91
559
6
656
13.9%
85.2%
R+71.3
Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1
92
452
3
547
16.8%
82.6%
R+65.8
Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3
84
236
1
321
26.2%
73.5%
R+47.4
Precinct -Precinct 4APrecinct 4A
57
123
3
183
31.1%
67.2%
R+36.1
Precinct -Precinct 4BPrecinct 4B
8
25
0
33
24.2%
75.8%
R+51.5
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1924–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1924
+41.2%
1928
−48.6%
1932
+78.0%
1936
+60.1%
1940
+52.7%
1944
+40.1%
1948
+60.7%
1952
−3.7%
1956
+18.7%
1960
−5.1%
1964
+17.4%
1968
−13.8%
1972
−59.5%
1976
+3.8%
1980
−38.0%
1984
−46.6%
1988
−24.9%
1992
−26.7%
1996
−26.1%
2000
−52.7%
2004
−56.3%
2008
−40.4%
2012
−48.1%
2016
−52.8%
2020
−55.1%
2024
−61.1%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
19.1%Harris332
80.1%Trump1,395
0.5%Oliver9 +2
R+61.1
R+5.9
R+59.6
1,741
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican80.1%1,395
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic19.1%332
Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%9
Jill SteinIndependent0.2%4
OtherAll other candidates0.1%1
R
22.0%Biden409
77.1%Trump1,434
0.8%Jorgensen14
R+55.1
R+2.3
R+59.6
1,860
R
22.1%Clinton397
75.0%Trump1,344
2.2%Johnson39
R+52.8
R+4.7
R+54.9
1,793
R
25.7%Obama466
73.7%Romney1,339
0.4%Gray7
R+48.1
R+7.7
R+51.9
1,816
R
29.4%Obama682
69.9%McCain1,618
0.7%
R+40.4
D+15.8
R+47.7
2,316
R
21.8%Kerry525
78.0%Bush1,882
0.2%
R+56.3
R+3.6
R+53.8
2,412
R
23.3%Gore488
76.0%Bush1,589
0.3%Nader6
R+52.7
R+26.5
R+53.2
2,090
R
34.2%Clinton706
60.3%Dole1,246
5.3%Perot109
R+26.1
D+0.5
R+34.7
2,066
R
28.6%Clinton677
55.3%Bush1,308
15.9%Perot376
R+26.7
R+1.8
R+32.2
2,365
R
37.4%Dukakis876
62.3%Bush1,459
0.3%
R+24.9
D+21.7
R+17.2
2,343
R
26.5%Mondale684
73.0%Reagan1,888
0.5%
R+46.6
R+8.6
R+28.3
2,586
R
30.1%Carter800
68.1%Reagan1,809
1.7%
R+38.0
R+41.8
R+28.3
2,655
D
51.6%Carter1,356
47.8%Ford1,255
0.6%
D+3.8
D+63.4
D+1.8
2,627
R
20.2%McGovern465
79.7%Nixon1,837
0.1%
R+59.5
R+45.7
R+36.4
2,305
R
32.1%Humphrey820
45.9%Nixon1,174
22.0%
R+13.8
R+31.3
R+13.1
2,558
D
58.7%Johnson1,503
41.2%Goldwater1,056
0.1%
D+17.4
D+22.6
R+5.1
2,562
R
46.9%Kennedy1,064
52.0%Nixon1,180
1.2%
R+5.1
R+23.8
R+5.3
2,271
D
59.2%Stevenson1,274
40.5%Eisenhower871
0.3%
D+18.7
D+22.4
D+34.1
2,151
R
48.1%Stevenson1,039
51.7%Eisenhower1,118
0.2%
R+3.7
R+64.3
D+7.1
2,162
D
76.8%Truman1,115
16.1%Dewey234
7.1%
D+60.7
D+20.6
D+56.2
1,452
D
64.7%Roosevelt943
24.6%Dewey358
10.8%
D+40.1
R+12.6
D+32.6
1,458
D
76.3%Roosevelt1,066
23.6%Willkie330
0.1%
D+52.7
R+7.4
D+42.7
1,397
D
79.4%Roosevelt788
19.2%Landon191
1.4%
D+60.1
R+17.9
D+35.9
993
D
88.8%Roosevelt851
10.9%Hoover104
0.3%
D+78.0
D+126.5
D+60.2
958
R
25.7%Smith142
74.3%Hoover410
0.0%
R+48.6
R+89.8
R+31.1
552
D
66.4%Davis166
25.2%Coolidge63
8.4%La Follette21
D+41.2
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D+66.4
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
19.0%325
78.9%1,352
1,713
2020
R
21.0%383
76.8%1,400
1,822
2018
R
25.1%405
74.5%1,202
1,614
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Bailey County, TX
Year
Total registered
2016
3,736
2018
3,242
2020
3,539
2022
3,501
2024
3,172
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−57 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −1,703 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $33,206 in average income, against $41,302 for residents who stayed — 20% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Where departures went households, 2022–23
Lubbock County, TX34
Lamb County, TX25
Parmer County, TX21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Bailey County, TX in Bailey County, TX: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−87
2012
−159
2013
−81
2014
−243
2015
+146
2016
−147
2017
−233
2018
−145
2019
−123
2021
−103
2022
−109
2023
−246
2024
−116
2025
−57
Bailey County's flat, agricultural landscape anchors an economy built on cotton and feedlots, and its small, majority-Hispanic population has nonetheless produced some of the widest Republican margins on the southern High Plains.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 78.0 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 61.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.1 points.
A population of 6,913, a 30% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,420 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Floyd County and Lamb County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Bailey County, Texas voted Republican by 61.1 points (R+61.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,741 votes cast, 332 went Democratic and 1,395 went Republican.
When did Bailey County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Bailey County, Texas voted Democratic was 1976.
How many people live in Bailey County, Texas?
Bailey County, Texas has a population of 6,913 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Bailey County, Texas?
Median household income in Bailey County, Texas is $61,420 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Bailey County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Bailey County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 9 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.
