HarrisDemocratic16.6%952TrumpRepublican83.2%4,781SteinIndependent0.2%9
R+66.6- Lead
- 3,829
- Total
- 5,749
- vs nation
- R+65.1
- Turnout
- 61.2%
Akashiccounty
Newton County, TX
Contests in this Place (85 available)
President31 · 1904–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1904–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 61.2% of 9,687 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic19.2%1,173TrumpRepublican80.1%4,882JorgensenLibertarian0.6%34
R+60.9- Lead
- 3,709
- Total
- 6,094
- vs nation
- R+65.3
- Turnout
- 55.4%
ClintonDemocratic20.9%1,156TrumpRepublican77.5%4,288JohnsonLibertarian1.2%66
R+56.6- Lead
- 3,132
- Total
- 5,534
- vs nation
- R+58.7
- Turnout
- 50.9%
ObamaDemocratic28.6%1,677RomneyRepublican70.1%4,112GrayLibertarian0.8%47
R+41.5- Lead
- 2,435
- Total
- 5,869
- vs nation
- R+45.3
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic33.3%1,751McCainRepublican65.5%3,446OtherAll other candidates1.2%63
R+32.2- Lead
- 1,695
- Total
- 5,260
- vs nation
- R+39.5
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic44.1%2,513BushRepublican55.4%3,159OtherAll other candidates0.5%28
R+11.3- Lead
- 646
- Total
- 5,700
- vs nation
- R+8.9
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.2%2,503BushRepublican48.6%2,423NaderGreen0.8%38
D+1.6- Lead
- 80
- Total
- 4,990
- vs nation
- D+1.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic57.3%2,554DoleRepublican31.6%1,409PerotReform10.6%474
D+25.7- Lead
- 1,145
- Total
- 4,456
- vs nation
- D+17.2
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+66.6MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 12,0932024 5-year
- Population density
- 13 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 934 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $42,6182024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 74.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 17.3%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+94.2 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+66.6 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Red River County, TX · twin score 92.0
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 61.2%5,925 participants ÷ 9,687 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +9.8 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -9.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 51.4%–52.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,925 | 9,687 ± 160 | 61.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 4,399 | 9,641 ± 88 | 45.6% | Audited | A/A |
| 6,094 | 10,992 ± 127 | 55.4% | Audited | C/A | |
| 2018Mid | 4,729 | 11,101 ± 178 | 42.6% | Audited | A/A |
| 5,604 | 11,015 ± 251 | 50.9% | Audited | A/A | |
| 5,869 | 10,898 | 53.9% | Derived | — | |
| 5,260 | 10,647 | 49.4% | Derived | — | |
| 5,700 | 10,396 extrapolated | 54.8% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 152/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Newton County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Newton County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
ANDREW WHITE0—
ANGELA "TIAANGIE" VILLESCAZ0—
BOBBY COLE0—
CARLTON W. HART0—
CHRIS BELL0—
GINA HINOJOSA0—
Show all 9 candidates
JOSE NAVARRO BALBUENA0—
PATRICIA ABREGO0—
ZACH VANCE0—
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 24 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
24 precincts · 5,751 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Precinct 13Precinct 13 | 48 | 549 | 4 | 601 | 8.0% | 91.3% | R+83.4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Precinct 1Precinct 1 | 67 | 470 | 2 | 539 | 12.4% | 87.2% | R+74.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 6Precinct 6 | 165 | 358 | 1 | 524 | 31.5% | 68.3% | R+36.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 11Precinct 11 | 28 | 347 | 1 | 376 | 7.4% | 92.3% | R+84.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 5Precinct 5 | 28 | 332 | 0 | 360 | 7.8% | 92.2% | R+84.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 3Precinct 3 | 22 | 334 | 1 | 357 | 6.2% | 93.6% | R+87.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 10Precinct 10 | 24 | 274 | 0 | 298 | 8.1% | 91.9% | R+83.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 16Precinct 16 | 41 | 227 | 0 | 268 | 15.3% | 84.7% | R+69.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 21Precinct 21 | 21 | 222 | 2 | 245 | 8.6% | 90.6% | R+82.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 22Precinct 22 | 109 | 134 | 1 | 244 | 44.7% | 54.9% | R+10.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 2Precinct 2 | 35 | 205 | 0 | 240 | 14.6% | 85.4% | R+70.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8APrecinct 8A | 45 | 150 | 0 | 195 | 23.1% | 76.9% | R+53.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 12Precinct 12 | 12 | 168 | 1 | 181 | 6.6% | 92.8% | R+86.2 |
| Precinct -Precinct 18Precinct 18 | 15 | 163 | 1 | 179 | 8.4% | 91.1% | R+82.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 14Precinct 14 | 71 | 96 | 0 | 167 | 42.5% | 57.5% | R+15.0 |
| Precinct -Precinct 19Precinct 19 | 8 | 150 | 0 | 158 | 5.1% | 94.9% | R+89.9 |
| Precinct -Precinct 9Precinct 9 | 34 | 111 | 0 | 145 | 23.4% | 76.6% | R+53.1 |
| Precinct -Precinct 4Precinct 4 | 25 | 118 | 1 | 144 | 17.4% | 81.9% | R+64.6 |
| Precinct -Precinct 15Precinct 15 | 10 | 126 | 1 | 137 | 7.3% | 92.0% | R+84.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 20Precinct 20 | 71 | 25 | 1 | 97 | 73.2% | 25.8% | D+47.4 |
| Precinct -Precinct 23Precinct 23 | 4 | 93 | 0 | 97 | 4.1% | 95.9% | R+91.8 |
| Precinct -Precinct 7Precinct 7 | 17 | 71 | 1 | 89 | 19.1% | 79.8% | R+60.7 |
| Precinct -Precinct 8BPrecinct 8B | 14 | 46 | 0 | 60 | 23.3% | 76.7% | R+53.3 |
| Precinct -Precinct 17Precinct 17 | 38 | 12 | 0 | 50 | 76.0% | 24.0% | D+52.0 |
presidential history
Party record book
Newton County, TX · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1904–2024 · 31 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
97.0%
1,586 votes · D+94.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 92.1%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
83.2%
4,781 votes · R+66.6
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 80.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Michael Dukakis1988
3,640votes
68.6% of the vote · D+37.3
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 3,468 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
4,882votes
80.1% of the vote · R+60.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 4,781 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+92.4pts D vs U.S.
Place D+67.2 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · James M. Cox, 1920 · +80.4 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+65.3pts R vs U.S.
Place R+60.9 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +65.1 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RRobert NicholsState Senate · 3
RJoanne ShofnerState House · 11
Seats representing Newton County, TX. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 9,440 |
| 2018 | 9,290 |
| 2020 | 9,400 |
| 2022 | 9,376 |
| 2024 | 9,486 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+13 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −477 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $52,340 in average income, against $61,315 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+56.3 on average — 10 points more Democratic-leaning than Newton County, TX itself (R+66.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Jasper County, TX82R+66.6
- Orange County, TX56R+66.7
- Harris County, TX23D+5.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Jasper County, TX88
- Orange County, TX48
- Jefferson County, TX27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +118 |
| 2012 | −130 |
| 2013 | −65 |
| 2014 | −17 |
| 2015 | −135 |
| 2016 | +24 |
| 2017 | −201 |
| 2018 | −127 |
| 2019 | −94 |
| 2021 | +175 |
| 2022 | −47 |
| 2023 | +93 |
| 2024 | −84 |
| 2025 | +13 |
Newton County sits in the forested far east of Texas, where Republican presidential margins have held above 60 points for over a decade, reflecting a rural, majority-white electorate with limited population churn.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 94.2 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 66.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 66.6 points.
A population of 12,093, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $42,618 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Red River County and Bledsoe County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Red River County
Texas
92.0twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ % unaffiliated
Bledsoe County
Tennessee
89.1twin score
elasticity2016–2024 trajectory≠ American ancestry
Marion County
Texas
88.5twin score
American ancestry12-yr trendmedian income≠ elasticity
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Newton County, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/48351/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Newton County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Newton County, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Newton County, Texas voted Republican by 66.6 points (R+66.6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 5,749 votes cast, 952 went Democratic and 4,781 went Republican.
When did Newton County, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Newton County, Texas voted Democratic was 2000.
How many people live in Newton County, Texas?
Newton County, Texas has a population of 12,093 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Newton County, Texas?
Median household income in Newton County, Texas is $42,618 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Newton County, Texas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Newton County, Texas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 23 went Democratic and 7 went Republican.