Akashic

county

Harrisonburg city, VA

Contests in this Place (82 available)

President28 · 1916–2024 · 3 mapped

▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1916–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1916 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1916–2024.

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German14.4%10.1%12.5%

Irish10.5%9.1%9.4%

English9.7%12.0%9.5%

Italian4.9%3.9%4.8%

American3.6%8.4%5.3%

Polish1.8%1.6%2.2%

Scottish1.8%1.9%1.3%

French1.3%1.3%1.6%

Mexican5.2%2.4%11.3%

Honduran5.2%0.7%0.3%

Puerto Rican3.8%1.4%1.8%

Salvadoran3.3%2.1%0.7%

Guatemalan1.7%0.7%0.5%

Cuban1.4%—0.7%

Dominican1.0%—0.7%

Colombian0.4%0.3%0.4%

African American†6.1%15.6%9.9%

African0.2%0.9%0.5%

Ethiopian0.2%0.5%—

Haitian0.2%—0.3%

Chinese0.7%0.8%1.3%

Korean0.6%0.8%0.4%

Asian Indian0.5%1.8%1.4%

Vietnamese0.4%0.7%0.6%

Pakistani0.4%0.5%—

Filipino0.2%0.9%0.9%

Afghan0.2%0.2%—

Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.

Age and life stage

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Median age	25	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	32.6%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	10.4%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$62,254	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	25.7%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	37.5%	42.3%	35.6%

Housing and tenure

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Owner-occupied homes	39.5%	67.3%	65.2%
Renter-occupied homes	60.5%	32.7%	34.8%
Median home value	$299,100	$383,700	$332,700
Median gross rent (monthly)	$1,184	$1,579	$1,413
Renters paying 30%+ of income	46.4%	48.5%	51.1%
Vacant housing units	7.0%	8.7%	10.1%

Getting to work

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Mean commute	17.1 min	27.3 min	26.4 min
Commutes 60 minutes or more	4.8%	8.9%	8.6%
Drives alone to work	67.9%	67.6%	68.8%
Takes public transit	1.8%	2.3%	3.2%
Works from home	9.1%	18.3%	15.1%

Languages at home

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	28.4%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	20.1%	7.9%	13.6%
Other Indo-European	1.6%	2.6%	2.0%
Arabic	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%
Other languages	1.7%	1.1%	0.8%

Religious landscape

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Catholic	10.0%	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	23.4%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	43.8%	54.3%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	13.8%	8.4%	5.2%

Origins and service

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Foreign-born residents	17.8%	13.1%	14.1%
Naturalized citizens	6.8%	7.4%	7.4%
Not U.S. citizens	11.0%	5.7%	6.8%
Veterans (18+)	3.5%	9.4%	6.2%
Income inequality (Gini)	0.454	0.471	0.483

American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations · American Community Survey 2024 — housing and tenure (B25003, B25002, B25077, B25064, B25070), commuting (B08013, B08303, B08301), origins and service (B05002, B21001, B19083).

President results by year

2024 turnout 45.9% of 37,592 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic61.4%10,641TrumpRepublican36.2%6,266SteinIndependent0.8%143

D+25.2

Lead: 4,375
Total: 17,332
vs nation: D+26.7
Turnout: 45.9%

BidenDemocratic64.5%11,022TrumpRepublican32.7%5,591JorgensenLibertarian2.1%364

D+31.8

Lead: 5,431
Total: 17,086
vs nation: D+27.3
Turnout: 43.2%

ClintonDemocratic56.8%10,212TrumpRepublican34.8%6,262JohnsonLibertarian4.5%810

D+22.0

Lead: 3,950
Total: 17,987
vs nation: D+19.9
Turnout: 46.7%

ObamaDemocratic55.5%8,654RomneyRepublican42.1%6,565OtherAll other candidates2.4%374

D+13.4

Lead: 2,089
Total: 15,593
vs nation: D+9.5
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic57.5%8,444McCainRepublican41.2%6,048OtherAll other candidates1.2%183

D+16.3

Lead: 2,396
Total: 14,675
vs nation: D+9.1
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic42.8%4,726BushRepublican55.9%6,165OtherAll other candidates1.3%139

R+13.0

Lead: 1,439
Total: 11,030
vs nation: R+10.6
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic35.0%3,482BushRepublican57.7%5,741NaderGreen6.4%641

R+22.7

Lead: 2,259
Total: 9,958
vs nation: R+23.2
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic37.4%3,346DoleRepublican55.3%4,945PerotReform4.9%434

R+17.9

Lead: 1,599
Total: 8,937
vs nation: R+26.4
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+25.2MIT Election Lab
Population: 51,3922024 5-year
Population density: 2,971 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 17.3 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $62,2542024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 60.8%2024 5-year
Black: 7.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 23.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+31.8 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+58.6 in 1956MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Williamsburg city, VA · twin score 87.8

Participation

Turnout and midterm durability

Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.

2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited

2024 turnout: 45.9%17,245 participants ÷ 37,592 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +16.0 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state: -7.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026: 29.9%–32.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Participation by cycle

Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016

35.3%

27.2%

Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.

Cycle	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Series	Quality
	17,245	37,592 ± 795	45.9%	Audited	C/A
2022Mid	10,446	38,382 ± 818	27.2%	Audited	A/A
	17,155	39,689 ± 705	43.2%	Audited	A/A
2018Mid	13,789	39,037 ± 607	35.3%	Audited	A/A
	18,082	38,750 ± 586	46.7%	Audited	A/A
	15,593	36,858	42.3%	Derived	—
	14,675	32,689	44.9%	Derived	—
	11,030	28,520 extrapolated	38.7%	Derived	—

Sources and methods

Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.

2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.

Interactive election map

One map. Every available contest.

The map and local result cover Harrisonburg city only. The complete district Class 2 result is shown below for comparison.

YearOfficeParty / contestMap detailShowing

Harrisonburg city result

0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes

Bert Mizusawa0—

David E. Williams0—

Kim Farington0—

District Class 2 result

Loading the complete contest result…

Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 16 precincts

Precinct data

Results by precinct

16 precincts · 17,332 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Harrisonburg city precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -201 - NORTHWEST201 - NORTHWEST	1,916	1,135	79	3,130	61.2%	36.3%	D+25.0
Precinct -203 - WEST203 - WEST	1,851	950	82	2,883	64.2%	33.0%	D+31.3
Precinct -101 - NORTHEAST101 - NORTHEAST	1,504	963	60	2,527	59.5%	38.1%	D+21.4
Precinct -202 - SOUTHWEST202 - SOUTHWEST	1,418	1,015	63	2,496	56.8%	40.7%	D+16.1
Precinct -104 - EAST104 - EAST	1,230	900	43	2,173	56.6%	41.4%	D+15.2
Precinct -103 - SOUTHEAST103 - SOUTHEAST	1,147	711	44	1,902	60.3%	37.4%	D+22.9
Precinct -102 - EAST CENTRAL102 - EAST CENTRAL	1,270	506	44	1,820	69.8%	27.8%	D+42.0
Precinct -105 - SOUTH EAST CENTRAL105 - SOUTH EAST CENTRAL	305	86	10	401	76.1%	21.4%	D+54.6
East51660000104	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
East Central51660000102	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Northeast51660000101	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Northwest51660000201	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
South East Central51660000105	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Southeast51660000103	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Southwest51660000202	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
West51660000203	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Party record book

Harrisonburg city, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

1916–2024 · 28 presidential cycles

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

64.5%

11,022 votes · D+31.8

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 61.4%

Republican

Dwight D. Eisenhower1956

78.3%

2,265 votes · R+58.6

Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 77.8%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Lyndon B. Johnson1964

13,542votes

60.8% of the vote · D+21.6

Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 11,022 votes

Republican

Barry Goldwater1964

8,731votes

39.2% of the vote · D+21.6

Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 6,565 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

+27.3pts D vs U.S.

Place D+31.8 · U.S. D+4.5

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +26.7 pts

Republican

Dwight D. Eisenhower1952

+45.0pts R vs U.S.

Place R+55.7 · U.S. R+10.8

Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1960 · +44.5 pts

current representation

Current officeholders

DMark WarnerU.S. Senate-0.21

DTim KaineU.S. Senate-0.23

RBen ClineU.S. House · VA-06+0.71

RMark ObenshainState Senate · 2

RTony WiltState House · 34

Seats representing Harrisonburg city, VA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.

U.S. House elections · 3 House

Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	D	61.3%10,382	38.7%6,567	16,949
2020	D	68.5%7,583	31.5%3,484	11,067
2018	D	66.7%9,130	33.3%4,562	13,692

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Harrisonburg city, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	28,569
2018	26,298
2020	26,076
2022	26,216
2024	25,964

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

−862 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net −6,725 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $45,510 in average income, against $64,689 for residents who stayed — 30% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+25.2 on average — 50 points more Republican-leaning than Harrisonburg city, VA itself (D+25.2).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Rockingham County, VA553R+36.8
Augusta County, VA74R+47.3
Shenandoah County, VA54R+42.1
Fairfax County, VA50D+34.7
Staunton city, VA46D+13.3
Albemarle County, VA31D+33.9

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Rockingham County, VA799
Augusta County, VA95
Staunton city, VA65
Fairfax County, VA56
Albemarle County, VA44
Shenandoah County, VA39

Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.

Domestic migration in Harrisonburg city, VA in Harrisonburg city, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+370
2012	+773
2013	−472
2014	+190
2015	−567
2016	+96
2017	−705
2018	−775
2019	−994
2021	−663
2022	−1,153
2023	−756
2024	−1,207
2025	−862

Home to James Madison University, Harrisonburg's electorate skews young and educated, producing Democratic margins above 25 points even as the surrounding Shenandoah Valley counties trend heavily Republican.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 31.8 points in 2020 and a Republican high of 58.6 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 25.2 points.

A population of 51,392, a 61% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $62,254 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Williamsburg city and Marion County.

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Williamsburg city

Virginia

87.8twin score

2020–2024 trajectory12-yr trendmedian age≠ elasticity

Marion County

Indiana

85.2twin score

2016–2024 trajectoryelasticity≠ population scale

Monroe County

Indiana

84.8twin score

2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated

Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Harrisonburg city, Virginia. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/51660/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

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Cities & towns in Harrisonburg city

Harrisonburg

D+25

51.4K residents

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisonburg city, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Harrisonburg city, Virginia voted Democratic by 25.2 points (D+25.2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 17,332 votes cast, 10,641 went Democratic and 6,266 went Republican.

When did Harrisonburg city, Virginia last vote Republican?

The most recent presidential election in which Harrisonburg city, Virginia voted Republican was 2004.

How many people live in Harrisonburg city, Virginia?

Harrisonburg city, Virginia has a population of 51,392 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Harrisonburg city, Virginia?

Median household income in Harrisonburg city, Virginia is $62,254 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Harrisonburg city, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Harrisonburg city, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.

Akashic

county

Harrisonburg city, VA

Contests in this Place (82 available)

President28 · 1916–2024 · 3 mapped

▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail

President margin by year

Place winner margin

1916–2024 · D minus R

Full record · 1916 → 2024

2024

Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab

The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1916–2024.

People and households

Who lives here

Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.

Race · ethnicity · ancestry

Communities and origins

German14.4%10.1%12.5%

Irish10.5%9.1%9.4%

English9.7%12.0%9.5%

Italian4.9%3.9%4.8%

American3.6%8.4%5.3%

Polish1.8%1.6%2.2%

Scottish1.8%1.9%1.3%

French1.3%1.3%1.6%

Mexican5.2%2.4%11.3%

Honduran5.2%0.7%0.3%

Puerto Rican3.8%1.4%1.8%

Salvadoran3.3%2.1%0.7%

Guatemalan1.7%0.7%0.5%

Cuban1.4%—0.7%

Dominican1.0%—0.7%

Colombian0.4%0.3%0.4%

African American†6.1%15.6%9.9%

African0.2%0.9%0.5%

Ethiopian0.2%0.5%—

Haitian0.2%—0.3%

Chinese0.7%0.8%1.3%

Korean0.6%0.8%0.4%

Asian Indian0.5%1.8%1.4%

Vietnamese0.4%0.7%0.6%

Pakistani0.4%0.5%—

Filipino0.2%0.9%0.9%

Afghan0.2%0.2%—

Age and life stage

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Median age	25	39.3	39.1
Age 18–24	32.6%	9.2%	9.2%
Age 65 and older	10.4%	16.7%	17.2%

Household economy

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Median household income	$62,254	$93,170	$84,427
Poverty rate	25.7%	10.0%	12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)	37.5%	42.3%	35.6%

Housing and tenure

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Owner-occupied homes	39.5%	67.3%	65.2%
Renter-occupied homes	60.5%	32.7%	34.8%
Median home value	$299,100	$383,700	$332,700
Median gross rent (monthly)	$1,184	$1,579	$1,413
Renters paying 30%+ of income	46.4%	48.5%	51.1%
Vacant housing units	7.0%	8.7%	10.1%

Getting to work

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Mean commute	17.1 min	27.3 min	26.4 min
Commutes 60 minutes or more	4.8%	8.9%	8.6%
Drives alone to work	67.9%	67.6%	68.8%
Takes public transit	1.8%	2.3%	3.2%
Works from home	9.1%	18.3%	15.1%

Languages at home

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Speaks a non-English language at home	28.4%	17.5%	22.3%
Spanish	20.1%	7.9%	13.6%
Other Indo-European	1.6%	2.6%	2.0%
Arabic	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%
Other languages	1.7%	1.1%	0.8%

Religious landscape

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Catholic	10.0%	10.2%	18.6%
Evangelical Protestant	23.4%	19.9%	16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted	43.8%	54.3%	51.5%
Mainline Protestant	13.8%	8.4%	5.2%

Origins and service

Measure	Harrisonburg city	Virginia	United States
Foreign-born residents	17.8%	13.1%	14.1%
Naturalized citizens	6.8%	7.4%	7.4%
Not U.S. citizens	11.0%	5.7%	6.8%
Veterans (18+)	3.5%	9.4%	6.2%
Income inequality (Gini)	0.454	0.471	0.483

President results by year

2024 turnout 45.9% of 37,592 citizens 18+

HarrisDemocratic61.4%10,641TrumpRepublican36.2%6,266SteinIndependent0.8%143

D+25.2

Lead: 4,375
Total: 17,332
vs nation: D+26.7
Turnout: 45.9%

BidenDemocratic64.5%11,022TrumpRepublican32.7%5,591JorgensenLibertarian2.1%364

D+31.8

Lead: 5,431
Total: 17,086
vs nation: D+27.3
Turnout: 43.2%

ClintonDemocratic56.8%10,212TrumpRepublican34.8%6,262JohnsonLibertarian4.5%810

D+22.0

Lead: 3,950
Total: 17,987
vs nation: D+19.9
Turnout: 46.7%

ObamaDemocratic55.5%8,654RomneyRepublican42.1%6,565OtherAll other candidates2.4%374

D+13.4

Lead: 2,089
Total: 15,593
vs nation: D+9.5
Turnout: —

ObamaDemocratic57.5%8,444McCainRepublican41.2%6,048OtherAll other candidates1.2%183

D+16.3

Lead: 2,396
Total: 14,675
vs nation: D+9.1
Turnout: —

KerryDemocratic42.8%4,726BushRepublican55.9%6,165OtherAll other candidates1.3%139

R+13.0

Lead: 1,439
Total: 11,030
vs nation: R+10.6
Turnout: —

GoreDemocratic35.0%3,482BushRepublican57.7%5,741NaderGreen6.4%641

R+22.7

Lead: 2,259
Total: 9,958
vs nation: R+23.2
Turnout: —

ClintonDemocratic37.4%3,346DoleRepublican55.3%4,945PerotReform4.9%434

R+17.9

Lead: 1,599
Total: 8,937
vs nation: R+26.4
Turnout: —

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: D+25.2MIT Election Lab
Population: 51,3922024 5-year
Population density: 2,971 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area: 17.3 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income: $62,2542024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 60.8%2024 5-year
Black: 7.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 23.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+31.8 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+58.6 in 1956MIT Election Lab
Most similar: Williamsburg city, VA · twin score 87.8

Participation

Turnout and midterm durability

2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited

2024 turnout: 45.9%17,245 participants ÷ 37,592 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off: +16.0 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state: -7.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026: 29.9%–32.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast

Participation by cycle

Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016

35.3%

27.2%

Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.

Cycle	Participants	CVAP	Turnout	Series	Quality
	17,245	37,592 ± 795	45.9%	Audited	C/A
2022Mid	10,446	38,382 ± 818	27.2%	Audited	A/A
	17,155	39,689 ± 705	43.2%	Audited	A/A
2018Mid	13,789	39,037 ± 607	35.3%	Audited	A/A
	18,082	38,750 ± 586	46.7%	Audited	A/A
	15,593	36,858	42.3%	Derived	—
	14,675	32,689	44.9%	Derived	—
	11,030	28,520 extrapolated	38.7%	Derived	—

Sources and methods

2024: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 156/228.
2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.

Interactive election map

One map. Every available contest.

The map and local result cover Harrisonburg city only. The complete district Class 2 result is shown below for comparison.

YearOfficeParty / contestMap detailShowing

Harrisonburg city result

0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes

Bert Mizusawa0—

David E. Williams0—

Kim Farington0—

District Class 2 result

Loading the complete contest result…

Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 16 precincts

Precinct data

Results by precinct

16 precincts · 17,332 votes

Election

Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.

Harrisonburg city precinct-level presidential election results for 2024

Precinct -201 - NORTHWEST201 - NORTHWEST	1,916	1,135	79	3,130	61.2%	36.3%	D+25.0
Precinct -203 - WEST203 - WEST	1,851	950	82	2,883	64.2%	33.0%	D+31.3
Precinct -101 - NORTHEAST101 - NORTHEAST	1,504	963	60	2,527	59.5%	38.1%	D+21.4
Precinct -202 - SOUTHWEST202 - SOUTHWEST	1,418	1,015	63	2,496	56.8%	40.7%	D+16.1
Precinct -104 - EAST104 - EAST	1,230	900	43	2,173	56.6%	41.4%	D+15.2
Precinct -103 - SOUTHEAST103 - SOUTHEAST	1,147	711	44	1,902	60.3%	37.4%	D+22.9
Precinct -102 - EAST CENTRAL102 - EAST CENTRAL	1,270	506	44	1,820	69.8%	27.8%	D+42.0
Precinct -105 - SOUTH EAST CENTRAL105 - SOUTH EAST CENTRAL	305	86	10	401	76.1%	21.4%	D+54.6
East51660000104	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
East Central51660000102	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Northeast51660000101	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Northwest51660000201	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
South East Central51660000105	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Southeast51660000103	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
Southwest51660000202	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes
West51660000203	0	0	0	0	—	—	No votes

presidential history

Party record book

Harrisonburg city, VA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.

1916–2024 · 28 presidential cycles

Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

64.5%

11,022 votes · D+31.8

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 61.4%

Republican

Dwight D. Eisenhower1956

78.3%

2,265 votes · R+58.6

Runner-up · Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1952 · 77.8%

Most votes

Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.

Democratic

Lyndon B. Johnson1964

13,542votes

60.8% of the vote · D+21.6

Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 11,022 votes

Republican

Barry Goldwater1964

8,731votes

39.2% of the vote · D+21.6

Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 6,565 votes

Best relative to the U.S.

This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.

Democratic

Joe Biden2020

+27.3pts D vs U.S.

Place D+31.8 · U.S. D+4.5

Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · +26.7 pts

Republican

Dwight D. Eisenhower1952

+45.0pts R vs U.S.

Place R+55.7 · U.S. R+10.8

Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1960 · +44.5 pts

current representation

Current officeholders

DMark WarnerU.S. Senate-0.21

DTim KaineU.S. Senate-0.23

RBen ClineU.S. House · VA-06+0.71

RMark ObenshainState Senate · 2

RTony WiltState House · 34

U.S. House elections · 3 House

Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.

U.S. House

Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.

Source · Akashic actual-race rollup from certified returns, House; geographic aggregation.
Year	Vote lead	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	D	61.3%10,382	38.7%6,567	16,949
2020	D	68.5%7,583	31.5%3,484	11,067
2018	D	66.7%9,130	33.3%4,562	13,692

voter registration

Registered voters

Total registered voters, over time

Registered voters

Voter registration in Harrisonburg city, VA
Year	Total registered
2016	28,569
2018	26,298
2020	26,076
2022	26,216
2024	25,964

domestic migration

Who moves in and out

Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote

−862 net domestic migration · 2025

20112025

Net −6,725 over 2011–2025 · gain loss

Arrivals reported $45,510 in average income, against $64,689 for residents who stayed — 30% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)

The places arrivals came from lean R+25.2 on average — 50 points more Republican-leaning than Harrisonburg city, VA itself (D+25.2).

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Rockingham County, VA553R+36.8
Augusta County, VA74R+47.3
Shenandoah County, VA54R+42.1
Fairfax County, VA50D+34.7
Staunton city, VA46D+13.3
Albemarle County, VA31D+33.9

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Rockingham County, VA799
Augusta County, VA95
Staunton city, VA65
Fairfax County, VA56
Albemarle County, VA44
Shenandoah County, VA39

Domestic migration in Harrisonburg city, VA in Harrisonburg city, VA: net domestic migration by year
Year	Net domestic migration
2011	+370
2012	+773
2013	−472
2014	+190
2015	−567
2016	+96
2017	−705
2018	−775
2019	−994
2021	−663
2022	−1,153
2023	−756
2024	−1,207
2025	−862

Political twins — counties

The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.

Williamsburg city

Virginia

87.8twin score

2020–2024 trajectory12-yr trendmedian age≠ elasticity

Marion County

Indiana

85.2twin score

2016–2024 trajectoryelasticity≠ population scale

Monroe County

Indiana

84.8twin score

2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ % unaffiliated

Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

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Cities & towns in Harrisonburg city

Harrisonburg

D+25

51.4K residents

Virginia at the ballot boxAll elections →

Presidentcounty detail2024 US Senatestatewide2024 Governorstate + county2025 US Houseall districts2024

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisonburg city, Virginia vote in 2024?

In 2024, Harrisonburg city, Virginia voted Democratic by 25.2 points (D+25.2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 17,332 votes cast, 10,641 went Democratic and 6,266 went Republican.

When did Harrisonburg city, Virginia last vote Republican?

The most recent presidential election in which Harrisonburg city, Virginia voted Republican was 2004.

How many people live in Harrisonburg city, Virginia?

Harrisonburg city, Virginia has a population of 51,392 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Harrisonburg city, Virginia?

Median household income in Harrisonburg city, Virginia is $62,254 — below the national median of $80,734. The Virginia state median is $93,170.

What is the political history of Harrisonburg city, Virginia?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Harrisonburg city, Virginia from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.

President margin by year

President results by year

Key facts

Harrisonburg city result

District Class 2 result

Results by precinct

Party record book

Highest vote share

Most votes

Best relative to the U.S.

Current officeholders

U.S. House

Registered voters

Who moves in and out

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions

President margin by year

President results by year

Key facts

Harrisonburg city result

District Class 2 result

Results by precinct

Party record book

Highest vote share

Most votes

Best relative to the U.S.

Current officeholders

U.S. House

Registered voters

Who moves in and out

Where arrivals came from lean of each source

Where departures went households, 2022–23

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions