† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
3 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupTucson (Sierra Vista)ArizonaUnited States
German12.8%12.6%12.5%
English10.6%10.2%9.5%
Irish8.9%8.9%9.4%
Italian3.9%4.1%4.8%
American3.2%4.0%5.3%
Polish2.1%2.0%2.2%
French2.0%1.8%1.6%
Scottish2.0%1.7%1.3%
Mexican33.8%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.9%0.7%1.8%
Spaniard0.7%0.5%—
Spanish0.4%0.4%—
Cuban0.3%0.3%0.7%
Guatemalan0.2%0.4%0.5%
Salvadoran0.2%0.3%0.7%
Colombian0.2%0.2%0.4%
African American†2.5%3.6%9.9%
African0.3%0.3%0.5%
Filipino0.6%0.7%0.9%
Chinese0.6%0.6%1.3%
Asian Indian0.4%0.9%1.4%
Korean0.3%0.3%0.4%
Vietnamese0.3%0.4%0.6%
Japanese0.2%0.2%0.2%
Tohono O'odham0.8%0.2%—
Navajo0.3%1.9%—
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Tucson (Sierra Vista)
Arizona
United States
Median age
40.1
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
11.0%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
21.8%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Tucson (Sierra Vista)
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$68,642
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
14.6%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
35.4%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Tucson (Sierra Vista)
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
27.9%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
23.3%
19.3%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
Tucson (Sierra Vista)
Arizona
United States
Catholic
21.3%
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
10.4%
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
58.6%
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1912
+30.5%
1916
+14.8%
1920
−11.6%
1924
−5.5%
1928
−13.3%
1932
+34.8%
1936
+41.7%
1940
+28.2%
1944
+17.3%
1948
+7.1%
1952
−17.6%
1956
−22.9%
1960
−3.8%
1964
+7.4%
1968
−9.2%
1972
−12.5%
1976
−3.7%
1980
−16.5%
1984
−16.1%
1988
−3.0%
1992
+10.1%
1996
+11.9%
2000
+6.1%
2004
+3.6%
2008
+3.9%
2012
+4.7%
2016
+11.1%
2020
+15.3%
2024
+11.5%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
D
55.1%Harris326,011
43.7%Trump258,304
0.6%Stein3,596 +1
D+11.5
R+3.9
D+12.9
591,220
All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic55.1%326,011
Donald J TrumpRepublican43.7%258,304
Jill SteinIndependent0.6%3,596
Chase OliverLibertarian0.6%3,309
D
56.7%Biden341,851
41.4%Trump249,509
1.8%
D+15.3
D+4.2
D+10.9
602,420
D
52.0%Clinton253,801
40.9%Trump199,417
7.1%
D+11.1
D+6.5
D+9.1
488,088
D
51.4%Obama229,283
46.7%Romney208,511
1.9%
D+4.7
D+0.7
D+0.8
446,285
D
51.3%Obama233,880
47.4%McCain215,950
1.3%
D+3.9
D+0.3
R+3.3
455,551
D
51.3%Kerry217,551
47.7%Bush202,333
0.9%
D+3.6
R+2.5
D+6.0
423,776
D
50.4%Gore166,281
44.3%Bush146,103
5.3%
D+6.1
R+5.8
D+5.6
329,774
D
51.5%Clinton157,006
39.6%Dole120,742
8.8%
D+11.9
D+1.8
D+3.4
304,642
D
44.9%Clinton144,782
34.8%Bush112,262
20.3%
D+10.1
D+13.1
D+4.5
322,714
R
47.9%Dukakis128,904
50.9%Bush137,034
1.2%
R+3.0
D+13.1
D+4.7
269,213
R
41.4%Mondale103,719
57.6%Reagan144,090
1.0%
R+16.1
D+0.4
D+2.1
250,356
R
34.2%Carter73,535
50.8%Reagan109,080
15.0%
R+16.5
R+12.8
R+6.8
214,842
R
46.1%Carter82,760
49.8%Ford89,497
4.1%
R+3.7
D+8.7
R+5.8
179,682
R
34.9%McGovern64,112
47.4%Nixon86,997
17.6%
R+12.5
R+3.3
D+10.7
183,488
R
40.6%Humphrey47,940
49.8%Nixon58,800
9.6%
R+9.2
R+16.6
R+8.5
118,010
D
53.6%Johnson65,120
46.2%Goldwater56,102
0.2%
D+7.4
D+11.3
R+15.2
121,435
R
48.0%Kennedy51,458
51.8%Nixon55,571
0.2%
R+3.8
D+19.1
R+4.0
107,286
R
38.5%Stevenson29,995
61.4%Eisenhower47,837
0.1%
R+22.9
R+5.3
R+7.5
77,893
R
41.2%Stevenson28,242
58.8%Eisenhower40,324
0.0%
R+17.6
R+24.7
R+6.9
68,566
D
52.2%Truman25,314
45.1%Dewey21,880
2.7%
D+7.1
R+10.3
D+2.6
48,514
D
58.6%Roosevelt21,232
41.2%Dewey14,948
0.2%
D+17.3
R+10.9
D+9.8
36,254
D
64.0%Roosevelt24,319
35.7%Willkie13,593
0.3%
D+28.2
R+13.5
D+18.3
38,028
D
69.9%Roosevelt22,108
28.2%Landon8,913
1.9%
D+41.7
D+7.0
D+17.5
31,619
D
65.6%Roosevelt20,465
30.8%Hoover9,615
3.6%
D+34.8
D+48.0
D+17.0
31,203
R
43.2%Smith10,200
56.4%Hoover13,330
0.4%
R+13.3
R+7.7
D+4.2
23,620
R
34.5%Davis6,763
40.1%Coolidge7,850
25.4%
R+5.5
D+6.0
D+19.6
19,588
R
44.2%Cox7,591
55.8%Harding9,583
0.0%
R+11.6
R+26.4
D+14.6
17,174
D
54.1%Wilson8,920
39.3%Hughes6,485
6.6%
D+14.8
R+15.8
D+11.6
16,496
O
42.3%Wilson2,916
11.8%Taft812
45.9%
Roosevelt +3.6
—
D+11.0
6,892
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voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026D+6.1
vs
Presidential vote · 2024D+11.5
Registration leans Democratic; the presidential vote runs 5.3 points more Republican.
Domestic migration in Tucson (Sierra Vista) in Tucson (Sierra Vista): net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+1,088
2012
−3,491
2013
−5,880
2014
−3,056
2015
−3,165
2016
+1,014
2017
+4,754
2018
+8,958
2019
+7,949
2021
+6,414
2022
+7,656
2023
+3,082
2024
+4,383
2025
+874
Fort Huachuca anchors Sierra Vista's economy and voter base, while Tucson's expanding Latino electorate and University of Arizona enrollment make this media market one of the more demographically complex in the Southwest.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 41.7 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 22.9 points in 1956. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 3.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 11.5 points.
A population of 1,234,982, a 50% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,642 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-San Luis Obispo and Monterey-Salinas.
Akashic
Political twins — media markets
The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/789/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Democratic by 11.5 points (D+11.5), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 591,220 votes cast, 326,011 went Democratic and 258,304 went Republican.
When did Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona has a population of 1,234,982 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Median household income in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona is $68,642 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Tucson (Sierra Vista), Arizona from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 16 went Democratic and 12 went Republican.
