state house districtMissouri 51st State House District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+17.0
2008R+11.4
2012R+23.5
2016R+40.3
2020R+41.9
2024R+45.5
net swing · 2004→2024R+28.5R+17.0 → R+45.5
vs. U.S. · 2024R+44.1R+45.5 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 58.4% of 29,358 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
4,559
12,368
224
17,151
29,358
58.4%
2020
4,960
12,352
311
17,623
28,937†
60.9%
2016
4,558
11,280
836
16,674
28,952†
57.6%
2012
6,261
10,234
415
16,910
28,914†
58.5%
2008
7,762
9,819
478
18,059
28,465†
63.4%
2004
7,324
10,347
90
17,761
28,017†
63.4%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupMO HD 51MissouriUnited States
German22.8%21.3%12.5%
English11.3%11.9%9.5%
Irish10.0%11.8%9.4%
American8.1%6.8%5.3%
Scottish1.4%1.8%1.3%
Italian1.2%3.2%4.8%
Swedish0.8%——
French0.6%2.2%1.6%
Mexican4.1%3.2%11.3%
Salvadoran2.0%—0.7%
Honduran0.3%—0.3%
Spanish0.3%——
Puerto Rican0.3%0.4%1.8%
Spaniard0.2%——
Cuban0.2%—0.7%
African American†3.8%10.0%9.9%
Chuukese1.5%——
Marshallese1.0%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
MO HD 51
Missouri
United States
Median age
37.3
39.2
39.1
Age 18–24
10.8%
9.2%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
18.3%
17.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
MO HD 51
Missouri
United States
Median household income
$68,014
$70,702
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.1%
12.6%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
24.3%
32.4%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
MO HD 51
Missouri
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
6.4%
6.7%
22.3%
Spanish
5.1%
2.9%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
MO HD 51
Missouri
United States
Catholic
—
12.5%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
24.1%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
51.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Missouri 51st State House District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−17.0%
2008
−11.4%
2012
−23.5%
2016
−40.3%
2020
−41.9%
2024
−45.5%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
26.6%Harris4,559
72.1%Trump12,368
1.3%
R+45.5
R+3.6
R+44.1
17,151
R
28.1%Biden4,960
70.1%Trump12,352
1.8%
R+41.9
R+1.6
R+46.4
17,623
R
27.3%Clinton4,558
67.7%Trump11,280
5.0%
R+40.3
R+16.8
R+42.4
16,674
R
37.0%Obama6,261
60.5%Romney10,234
2.5%
R+23.5
R+12.1
R+27.3
16,910
R
43.0%Obama7,762
54.4%McCain9,819
2.6%
R+11.4
D+5.6
R+18.7
18,059
R
41.2%Kerry7,324
58.3%Bush10,347
0.5%
R+17.0
—
R+14.6
17,761
current representation
Current officeholders
RMark NolteState House · 51
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin exceeding 34 points, this district sits firmly in Missouri's conservative interior, where GOP candidates routinely face little general-election competition and primary outcomes often decide the seat.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 45.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.5 points.
A population of 38,562, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,014 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 3 and State House District 4.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Missouri 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Missouri 51st State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Missouri 51st State House District voted Republican by 45.5 points (R+45.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 17,151 votes cast, 4,559 went Democratic and 12,368 went Republican.
How many people live in Missouri 51st State House District?
Missouri 51st State House District has a population of 38,562 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Missouri 51st State House District?
Median household income in Missouri 51st State House District is $68,014 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Missouri 51st State House District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Missouri 51st State House District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
