Missouri 51st State House District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Samuel J. Tilden1876
66.0%
4,914 votes · D+32.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 64.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
72.1%
12,370 votes · R+45.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 70.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
11,854votes
64.3% of the vote · D+29.0 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 11,770 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
12,370votes
72.1% of the vote · R+45.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 12,352 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+30.3pts D vs U.S.
Place D+5.1 · U.S. R+25.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · +29.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+46.4pts R vs U.S.
Place R+41.9 · U.S. D+4.5 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +44.1 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RMark NolteState House · 51
State legislative officeholder from OpenStates nightly current-legislator data.
With a 2024 presidential margin exceeding 34 points, this district sits firmly in Missouri's conservative interior, where GOP candidates routinely face little general-election competition and primary outcomes often decide the seat.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.0 points in 1876 and a Republican high of 45.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 3.6 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 45.5 points.
A population of 38,562, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,014 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of State House District 3 and State House District 4.
Akashic
Political twins — state-house districts
The state-house districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Missouri 51st State House District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/sld-lower/29051/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
How did Missouri 51st State House District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Missouri 51st State House District voted Republican by 45.5 points (R+45.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 17,153 votes cast, 4,559 went Democratic and 12,370 went Republican.
When did Missouri 51st State House District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Missouri 51st State House District voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Missouri 51st State House District?
Missouri 51st State House District has a population of 38,562 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Missouri 51st State House District?
Median household income in Missouri 51st State House District is $68,014 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Missouri 51st State House District?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Missouri 51st State House District from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 18 went Republican.