- Lead
- 98,025
- Total
- 334,340
- vs nation
- R+27.8
Indiana 4th Congressional District
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
Modeled candidate-vote estimate on current district boundaries
- Lead
- 100,599
- Total
- 345,296
- vs nation
- R+33.6
- Lead
- 103,044
- Total
- 303,005
- vs nation
- R+36.1
- Lead
- 74,047
- Total
- 273,722
- vs nation
- R+30.9
- Lead
- 35,342
- Total
- 290,949
- vs nation
- R+19.4
- Lead
- 95,952
- Total
- 249,637
- vs nation
- R+36.0
- Lead
- 68,467
- Total
- 215,762
- vs nation
- R+32.3
- Lead
- 47,032
- Total
- 209,826
- vs nation
- R+30.9
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+29.3MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 753,9602024 5-year
- Population density
- 124 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 6,097 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $78,4492024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 81.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 7.1%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+16.7 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+45.4 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Congressional District 6, IN · twin score 97.2
presidential history
Party record book
Indiana 4th Congressional District · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 (partial returns from 1876) · 38 presidential cycles · 38 with a vote-share denominator · 34 with a national benchmark
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
54.9%
85,529 votes · D+11.3 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 51.0%
Republican
Richard Nixon1972
72.5%
139,567 votes · R+45.4 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Ronald Reagan, 1984 · 70.0%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
125,653votes
43.2% of the vote · R+12.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 118,417 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2020
219,016votes
63.4% of the vote · R+29.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · 213,027 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+11.8pts D vs U.S.
Place R+14.4 · U.S. R+26.2 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +8.3 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+36.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+34.0 · U.S. D+2.1 · modeled estimate
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +36.0 pts
Current officeholders
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
On the ballot
Republican James Baird holds the seat and is contesting it.
Primary held May 5, 2026. Akashic does not yet carry the nominees for this contest.
How the seat has run
| Year | U.S. House | President | Ran ahead |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R+33.9James R. Baird | R+29.3 | +4.6 |
| 2022 | R+36.4James R Baird | — | — |
| 2020 | R+33.2James R Baird | R+29.1 | — |
| 2018 | R+28.1Jim Baird | — | — |
“Ran ahead” is how far the winning party’s House candidate ran ahead of that party’s presidential margin in the same district. A dash means the House race and the presidential figure were measured on different district lines, so the two cannot be subtracted — both are still shown unchanged.
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Indiana's 4th district spans the state's rural northwest and west-central corridor, where Republican presidential candidates have carried the district by 30 points or more in recent cycles, reflecting its predominantly small-town and agricultural character.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 16.7 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 45.4 points in 1972. The 2024 margin was 29.3 points.
A population of 753,960, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $78,449 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 6 and Congressional District 5.
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons → · Or open the source-auditable district brief for electoral baseline, electorate, current-cycle coverage, geography, official dates, and methodology. Open campaign intelligence report →
Indiana 4th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/1804/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.