congressional districtTexas 15th Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+6.5
2008D+13.4
2012D+14.5
2016D+13.5
2020R+2.4
2024R+17.9
net swing · 2004→2024R+11.4R+6.5 → R+17.9
vs. U.S. · 2024R+16.4R+17.9 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 49.5% of 461,153 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
92,648
133,438
1,960
228,046
461,153
49.5%
2020
109,921
115,370
1,444
226,735
437,115†
51.9%
2016
102,485
77,240
6,689
186,414
410,085†
45.5%
2012
89,394
66,528
1,589
157,511
382,119†
41.2%
2008
88,372
67,321
1,981
157,674
354,284†
44.5%
2004
66,851
76,110
555
143,516
326,450†
44.0%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupTX-15TexasUnited States
Mexican76.4%32.1%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.4%0.8%1.8%
Honduran0.2%0.8%0.3%
Salvadoran0.2%1.2%0.7%
Spaniard0.2%0.3%—
Cuban0.2%0.5%0.7%
German13.0%8.3%12.5%
American7.6%4.6%5.3%
English6.7%7.9%9.5%
Irish6.7%6.0%9.4%
Czech2.4%——
Italian1.5%1.9%4.8%
French1.5%1.5%1.6%
Polish1.2%0.8%2.2%
African American†0.8%10.3%9.9%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
TX-15
Texas
United States
Median age
33.4
35.7
39.1
Age 18–24
10.4%
9.7%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
13.2%
13.5%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
TX-15
Texas
United States
Median household income
$59,077
$78,476
$84,427
Poverty rate
22.9%
13.8%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
19.8%
33.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
TX-15
Texas
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
67.9%
35.2%
22.3%
Spanish
66.6%
28.2%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
TX-15
Texas
United States
Catholic
—
20.1%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
23.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
45.2%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Texas 15th Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−6.5%
2008
+13.4%
2012
+14.5%
2016
+13.5%
2020
−2.4%
2024
−17.9%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 24 House races · 17 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
15
R
42.9%95,965
57.1%127,804
223,769
2022
15
R
44.8%68,097
53.3%80,978
151,889
2020
15
D
50.5%115,605
47.6%109,017
228,917
2018
15
D
59.7%98,333
38.8%63,862
164,802
2016
15
D
57.3%101,712
37.7%66,877
177,479
2014
15
D
54.0%48,708
43.3%39,016
90,184
2012
15
D
60.9%89,296
36.9%54,056
146,661
2010
15
D
55.7%53,546
41.6%39,964
96,080
2008
15
D
65.7%107,578
31.9%52,303
163,708
2004
15
D
57.8%96,089
40.8%67,917
166,358
2002
15
D
100.0%66,311
0.0%0
66,311
2000
15
D
88.5%106,570
0.0%0
120,448
1998
15
D
58.4%47,957
41.6%34,221
82,178
1996
15
D
62.3%86,347
36.7%50,914
138,594
1994
15
D
59.0%61,527
39.4%41,119
104,366
1992
15
D
60.4%86,351
39.6%56,549
142,900
1990
15
D
100.0%72,461
0.0%0
72,461
1988
15
D
93.9%93,672
0.0%0
99,805
1986
15
D
100.0%70,777
0.0%0
70,777
1984
15
D
100.0%104,863
0.0%0
104,863
1982
15
D
95.7%76,544
0.0%0
80,002
1980
15
D
70.0%105,325
30.0%45,090
150,415
1978
15
D
66.2%54,560
33.8%27,853
82,413
1976
15
D
74.4%102,837
25.6%35,446
138,283
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
44.3%97,073
53.4%116,996
219,199
2020
R
43.9%4,888,764
53.5%5,962,983
11,144,040
2018
R
48.3%4,045,632
50.9%4,260,553
8,371,655
2014
R
34.4%1,597,387
61.6%2,861,531
4,647,370
2012
R
40.6%3,194,927
56.5%4,440,137
7,864,822
2008
R
42.8%3,389,365
54.8%4,337,469
7,912,075
2006
R
36.0%1,555,202
61.7%2,661,789
4,314,663
2002
R
43.3%1,955,758
55.3%2,496,243
4,512,590
2000
R
32.3%2,025,024
65.1%4,078,954
6,267,964
1996
R
43.9%2,428,776
54.8%3,027,680
5,527,441
1994
R
38.3%1,639,615
60.8%2,604,218
4,279,940
1990
R
37.4%1,429,986
60.2%2,302,357
3,821,432
1988
D
59.2%3,149,806
40.0%2,129,228
5,323,023
1984
R
41.4%2,202,557
58.5%3,111,348
5,314,178
1982
D
58.6%1,818,223
40.5%1,256,759
3,103,040
1978
R
49.3%1,139,149
49.8%1,151,376
2,312,540
1976
D
56.8%2,199,956
42.2%1,636,370
3,874,230
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Ted Cruz · Republican53.4%116,996
Colin Z Allred · Democrat44.3%97,073
Brown · Libertarian2.3%5,106
Roche · Independent0.0%14
Andrus · Independent0.0%10
TX-15 stretches through the Rio Grande Valley's northern edge, where a significant rightward shift among Hispanic voters over recent cycles has tightened what were once reliably wide Democratic margins, making the district a closely watched bellwether for Latino political realignment.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 14.5 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 17.9 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 15.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 17.9 points.
A population of 767,250, a 15% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $59,077 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 34 and Congressional District 28.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Texas 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4815/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Texas 15th Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Texas 15th Congressional District voted Republican by 17.9 points (R+17.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 228,046 votes cast, 92,648 went Democratic and 133,438 went Republican.
When did Texas 15th Congressional District last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Texas 15th Congressional District voted Democratic was 2016.
How many people live in Texas 15th Congressional District?
Texas 15th Congressional District has a population of 767,250 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Texas 15th Congressional District?
Median household income in Texas 15th Congressional District is $59,077 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Texas 15th Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Texas 15th Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 3 went Republican.
