Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic21.6%266TrumpRepublican75.3%928OtherAll other candidates3.1%38
R+53.7
Lead
662
Total
1,232
vs nation
R+52.3
BidenDemocratic24.1%301TrumpRepublican73.1%913OtherAll other candidates2.8%35
R+49.0
Lead
612
Total
1,249
vs nation
R+53.5
ClintonDemocratic21.8%258TrumpRepublican70.7%839OtherAll other candidates7.5%89
R+49.0
Lead
581
Total
1,186
vs nation
R+51.1
ObamaDemocratic30.8%381RomneyRepublican65.4%810OtherAll other candidates3.8%47
R+34.7
Lead
429
Total
1,238
vs nation
R+38.5
ObamaDemocratic35.8%443McCainRepublican60.3%746OtherAll other candidates3.9%48
R+24.5
Lead
303
Total
1,237
vs nation
R+31.8
KerryDemocratic31.1%406BushRepublican68.3%891OtherAll other candidates0.6%8
R+37.2
Lead
485
Total
1,305
vs nation
R+34.7
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+53.7MIT Election Lab
Population
3,2162024 5-year
Population density
554 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
5.8 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$58,4132024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
79.2%2024 5-year
Black
3.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.1%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+53.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
48.3%1,249 participants ÷ 2,585 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+13.5 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
-5.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
34.9%–39.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%
45.3%
39.1%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,249
2,585 ± 155
48.3%
Audited
E/A
2022Mid
985
2,521 ± 158
39.1%
Audited
E/A
1,267
2,412 ± 182
52.5%
Audited
E/A
2018Mid
1,121
2,474 ± 167
45.3%
Audited
E/A
1,227
2,519 ± 168
48.7%
Audited
E/A
1,238
2,325
53.2%
Derived
—
1,237
2,470
50.1%
Derived
—
1,305
2,615 extrapolated
49.9%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Shelby, MT · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
35.8%
443 votes · R+24.5
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 31.1%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
75.3%
928 votes · R+53.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 73.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
443votes
35.8% of the vote · R+24.5
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 406 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
928votes
75.3% of the vote · R+53.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 913 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
−31.8pts D vs U.S.
Place R+24.5 · U.S. D+7.3
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · −34.7 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+53.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+49.0 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +52.3 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Shelby · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Toole County, Montana, the county containing Shelby — Shelby’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Shelby, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Shelby sits at the junction of I-15 and the BNSF main line in Toole County, an energy-producing stretch of north-central Montana that consistently delivers lopsided Republican margins in both state and federal contests.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 53.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 53.7 points.
A population of 3,216, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,413 describe the city.
In 2024, Shelby, Montana voted Republican by 53.7 points (R+53.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,232 votes cast, 266 went Democratic and 928 went Republican.
How many people live in Shelby, Montana?
Shelby, Montana has a population of 3,216 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Shelby, Montana?
Median household income in Shelby, Montana is $58,413 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Shelby, Montana?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Shelby, Montana from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
