Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupToole CountyMontanaUnited States
German25.1%22.9%12.5%
Irish13.6%13.5%9.4%
Norwegian12.3%7.5%—
English10.6%13.1%9.5%
American5.4%5.4%5.3%
Italian3.2%3.2%4.8%
Scottish2.5%2.6%1.3%
French1.6%—1.6%
Blackfeet1.2%1.0%—
Maya0.2%——
Mexican4.1%2.9%11.3%
Venezuelan0.2%——
African American†1.3%—9.9%
African0.3%—0.5%
Asian Indian0.7%—1.4%
Filipino0.4%—0.9%
Japanese0.2%—0.2%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Toole County
Montana
United States
Median age
37.7
40.8
39.1
Age 18–24
8.0%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
18.0%
20.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Toole County
Montana
United States
Median household income
$57,731
$72,509
$84,427
Poverty rate
12.6%
11.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
22.5%
35.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Toole County
Montana
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
5.2%
4.2%
22.3%
Spanish
1.2%
1.5%
13.6%
German or other West Germanic
2.1%
0.8%
0.5%
Religious landscape
Measure
Toole County
Montana
United States
Catholic
5.9%
10.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
14.2%
13.6%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
50.5%
65.3%
51.5%
Mainline Protestant
22.7%
4.7%
5.2%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Toole County, Montana
Precinct data
Results by precinct
5 precincts · 2,046 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Toole County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -SHELBY CITYSHELBY CITY
263
912
38
1,213
21.7%
75.2%
R+53.5
Precinct -SUNBURSTSUNBURST
86
310
12
408
21.1%
76.0%
R+54.9
Precinct -SHELBY RURALSHELBY RURAL
34
142
0
176
19.3%
80.7%
R+61.4
Precinct -KEVINKEVIN
15
107
5
127
11.8%
84.3%
R+72.4
Precinct -DEVON-GALATADEVON-GALATA
17
100
5
122
13.9%
82.0%
R+68.0
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1916–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1916
+19.1%
1920
−32.5%
1924
−13.9%
1928
−10.3%
1932
+36.7%
1936
+50.8%
1940
+23.1%
1944
+16.2%
1948
+23.0%
1952
−13.0%
1956
−13.8%
1960
+5.7%
1964
+14.8%
1968
−13.3%
1972
−27.8%
1976
−14.9%
1980
−47.9%
1984
−41.9%
1988
−16.5%
1992
−3.3%
1996
−13.3%
2000
−42.4%
2004
−38.6%
2008
−27.3%
2012
−40.8%
2016
−53.8%
2020
−53.3%
2024
−56.5%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
20.3%Harris415
76.8%Trump1,571
1.9%Kennedy39 +2
R+56.5
R+3.2
R+55.0
2,046
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican76.8%1,571
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic20.3%415
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent1.9%39
Chase OliverLibertarian0.7%14
Jill SteinIndependent0.3%7
R
22.0%Biden467
75.3%Trump1,596
2.6%Jorgensen56
R+53.3
D+0.5
R+57.7
2,119
R
19.7%Clinton402
73.5%Trump1,497
4.7%Johnson96
R+53.8
R+12.9
R+55.8
2,037
R
27.7%Obama582
68.5%Romney1,440
3.8%GRAY80
R+40.8
R+13.5
R+44.7
2,102
R
34.7%Obama737
62.1%McCain1,317
3.2%
R+27.3
D+11.3
R+34.6
2,121
R
29.9%Kerry690
68.5%Bush1,583
1.6%
R+38.6
D+3.8
R+36.2
2,311
R
26.5%Gore630
68.9%Bush1,639
3.2%Nader77
R+42.4
R+29.2
R+42.9
2,378
R
35.2%Clinton874
48.5%Dole1,203
15.6%Perot386
R+13.3
R+10.0
R+21.8
2,482
R
31.4%Clinton854
34.7%Bush943
33.2%Perot903
R+3.3
D+13.2
R+8.8
2,717
R
40.6%Dukakis1,070
57.1%Bush1,505
2.2%
R+16.5
D+25.4
R+8.8
2,634
R
28.5%Mondale789
70.4%Reagan1,949
1.1%
R+41.9
D+6.0
R+23.7
2,768
R
22.2%Carter634
70.2%Reagan2,000
7.6%
R+47.9
R+33.0
R+38.2
2,850
R
41.5%Carter1,080
56.4%Ford1,469
2.1%
R+14.9
D+12.8
R+17.0
2,603
R
31.9%McGovern897
59.6%Nixon1,679
8.5%
R+27.8
R+14.5
R+4.6
2,815
R
38.7%Humphrey1,048
52.0%Nixon1,407
9.3%
R+13.3
R+28.1
R+12.6
2,708
D
57.4%Johnson1,649
42.6%Goldwater1,223
0.1%
D+14.8
D+9.1
R+7.8
2,874
D
52.8%Kennedy1,767
47.1%Nixon1,577
0.1%
D+5.7
D+19.5
D+5.5
3,348
R
43.1%Stevenson1,460
56.9%Eisenhower1,927
0.0%
R+13.8
R+0.8
D+1.6
3,387
R
43.3%Stevenson1,426
56.3%Eisenhower1,853
0.5%
R+13.0
R+36.0
R+2.2
3,294
D
60.8%Truman1,756
37.8%Dewey1,092
1.4%
D+23.0
D+6.8
D+18.5
2,888
D
57.9%Roosevelt1,545
41.7%Dewey1,113
0.4%
D+16.2
R+6.9
D+8.7
2,668
D
61.4%Roosevelt1,954
38.3%Willkie1,218
0.3%
D+23.1
R+27.7
D+13.2
3,182
D
73.5%Roosevelt2,120
22.7%Landon654
3.8%
D+50.8
D+14.1
D+26.6
2,884
D
66.7%Roosevelt1,917
30.0%Hoover862
3.3%
D+36.7
D+47.0
D+18.9
2,874
R
44.4%Smith1,076
54.7%Hoover1,325
0.9%
R+10.3
D+3.6
D+7.2
2,422
O
23.6%Davis439
37.5%Coolidge697
38.7%La Follette720
La Follette +1.4
D+18.6
D+11.3
1,859
R
28.8%Cox405
61.3%Harding861
9.9%
R+32.5
R+51.6
R+6.3
1,405
D
54.5%Wilson1,075
35.4%Hughes698
10.1%
D+19.1
—
D+16.0
1,972
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
No data
—
—
—
Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
27.3%558
70.3%1,436
2,044
2020
R
28.0%595
72.0%1,528
2,123
2018
R
32.9%626
63.5%1,208
1,903
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Toole County, MT
Year
Total registered
2016
2,654
2018
2,600
2020
2,602
2022
2,564
2024
2,687
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+47 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −460 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $31,775 in average income, against $59,020 for residents who stayed — 46% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+54.5 on average — 2.0 points more Democratic-leaning than Toole County, MT itself (R+56.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
Liberty County, MT38R+54.5
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Toole County, MT in Toole County, MT: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
−196
2012
+52
2013
−100
2014
−7
2015
−45
2016
−128
2017
−95
2018
−47
2019
−115
2021
+32
2022
+61
2023
+58
2024
+23
2025
+47
Toole County hugs the Canadian border along Montana's Hi-Line, where a sparse, agriculture-and-energy economy has produced some of the state's most lopsided presidential results for decades running.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 50.8 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 56.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 56.5 points.
A population of 5,061, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,731 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Perkins County and Phillips County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Toole County, Montana voted Republican by 56.5 points (R+56.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,046 votes cast, 415 went Democratic and 1,571 went Republican.
When did Toole County, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Toole County, Montana voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Toole County, Montana?
Toole County, Montana has a population of 5,061 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Toole County, Montana?
Median household income in Toole County, Montana is $57,731 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Toole County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Toole County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 19 went Republican.
