congressional districtMontana 2nd Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+24.9
2008R+7.3
2012R+19.6
2016R+29.6
2020R+26.8
2024R+29.5
net swing · 2004→2024R+4.6R+24.9 → R+29.5
vs. U.S. · 2024R+28.1R+29.5 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 66.4% of 422,901 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
94,499
177,468
8,932
280,899
422,901
66.4%
2020
101,370
178,414
7,256
287,040
405,179†
70.8%
2016
76,368
148,152
17,810
242,330
399,676†
60.6%
2012
93,979
141,618
6,918
242,515
386,645†
62.7%
2008
110,467
128,444
8,575
247,486
371,020†
66.7%
2004
84,998
143,049
4,877
232,924
355,395†
65.5%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupMT-2MontanaUnited States
German25.1%22.9%12.5%
Irish13.0%13.5%9.4%
English12.2%13.1%9.5%
Norwegian8.8%7.5%—
American6.4%5.4%5.3%
Italian2.7%3.2%4.8%
Scottish2.2%2.6%1.3%
Swedish1.8%1.4%—
Blackfeet0.4%1.0%—
Mexican2.9%2.9%11.3%
Spaniard0.3%0.3%—
Puerto Rican0.3%0.2%1.8%
Spanish0.3%0.3%—
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
MT-2
Montana
United States
Median age
40.6
40.8
39.1
Age 18–24
7.7%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
20.1%
20.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
MT-2
Montana
United States
Median household income
$71,501
$72,509
$84,427
Poverty rate
11.6%
11.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
31.2%
35.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
MT-2
Montana
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
4.0%
4.2%
22.3%
Spanish
1.2%
1.5%
13.6%
Other languages
1.0%
0.7%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
MT-2
Montana
United States
Catholic
—
10.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
13.6%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
65.3%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Montana 2nd Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−24.9%
2008
−7.3%
2012
−19.6%
2016
−29.6%
2020
−26.8%
2024
−29.5%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. † 2004, 2012 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for these cycles was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 10 House races · 17 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
2
R
34.0%93,713
66.0%181,832
275,545
2022
2
R
20.2%43,480
56.6%121,979
215,672
1990
2
R
37.0%56,739
63.0%96,449
153,188
1988
2
R
44.5%78,069
55.5%97,465
175,534
1986
2
R
46.5%73,583
53.5%84,548
158,131
1984
2
R
34.1%60,445
65.9%116,932
177,377
1982
2
R
44.2%65,815
53.7%79,968
148,937
1980
2
R
40.9%63,370
59.1%91,431
154,801
1978
2
R
43.1%57,480
56.9%75,766
133,246
1976
2
R
45.0%68,972
55.0%84,149
153,121
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
40.9%115,690
57.1%161,514
282,901
2020
R
45.0%272,463
55.0%333,174
605,637
2018
D
50.3%253,876
46.8%235,963
504,384
2014
R
40.1%148,184
57.8%213,709
369,826
2012
D
48.6%236,123
44.9%218,051
486,066
2008
D
72.9%348,289
27.1%129,369
477,658
2006
D
49.2%199,845
48.3%196,283
406,505
2002
D
62.7%204,853
31.7%103,611
326,537
2000
R
47.2%194,430
50.6%208,082
411,601
1996
D
49.6%201,935
44.7%182,111
407,490
1994
R
37.6%131,845
62.4%218,542
350,387
1990
D
68.1%217,563
29.4%93,836
319,336
1988
R
48.1%175,809
51.9%189,445
365,254
1984
D
56.9%215,704
40.7%154,308
379,155
1982
D
54.5%174,861
41.7%133,789
321,062
1978
D
55.7%160,353
44.3%127,589
287,942
1976
D
64.2%206,232
35.8%115,213
321,445
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Tim Sheehy · Republican57.1%161,514
Jon Tester · Democrat40.9%115,690
Sid Daoud · Libertarian1.3%3,545
Robert Barb · Green0.8%2,152
Covering the vast eastern two-thirds of Montana, this district's sparse population is spread across ranching and energy country where Republican presidential candidates have carried it by 25 points or more in every cycle since 2000.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 29.6 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 2.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 29.5 points.
A population of 542,120, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,501 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 1 and Congressional District (at Large).
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Montana 2nd Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/3002/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Montana 2nd Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Montana 2nd Congressional District voted Republican by 29.5 points (R+29.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 280,899 votes cast, 94,499 went Democratic and 177,468 went Republican.
How many people live in Montana 2nd Congressional District?
Montana 2nd Congressional District has a population of 542,120 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Montana 2nd Congressional District?
Median household income in Montana 2nd Congressional District is $71,501 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Montana 2nd Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Montana 2nd Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
