Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic43.5%561TrumpRepublican55.5%717OtherAll other candidates1.0%13
R+12.1
Lead
156
Total
1,291
vs nation
R+10.6
BidenDemocratic64.2%605TrumpRepublican35.4%333OtherAll other candidates0.4%4
D+28.9
Lead
272
Total
942
vs nation
D+24.4
ClintonDemocratic83.7%694TrumpRepublican13.9%115OtherAll other candidates2.4%20
D+69.8
Lead
579
Total
829
vs nation
D+67.8
ObamaDemocratic77.8%485RomneyRepublican21.0%131OtherAll other candidates1.1%7
D+56.8
Lead
354
Total
623
vs nation
D+53.0
ObamaDemocratic78.7%572McCainRepublican20.6%150OtherAll other candidates0.7%5
D+58.0
Lead
422
Total
727
vs nation
D+50.8
KerryDemocratic60.2%363BushRepublican39.8%240OtherAll other candidates0.0%0
D+20.4
Lead
123
Total
603
vs nation
D+22.9
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+12.1MIT Election Lab
Population
4,9982024 5-year
Population density
1,666 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
3 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$45,9242024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
0.0%2024 5-year
Black
0.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
99.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+69.8 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+12.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
52.2%1,299 participants ÷ 2,489 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+5.4 ptsPersistently low turnout
Drop-off vs state
-13.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
46.8%–48.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%
29.4%
28.1%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,299
2,489 ± 553
52.2%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
612
2,180 ± 529
28.1%
Audited
E/D
951
2,840 ± 611
33.5%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
730
2,487 ± 515
29.4%
Audited
E/D
836
2,613 ± 443
32.0%
Audited
E/D
623
2,531
24.6%
Derived
—
727
2,088
34.8%
Derived
—
603
1,645 extrapolated
36.7%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Progreso, TX · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
83.7%
694 votes · D+69.8
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 78.7%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
55.5%
717 votes · R+12.1
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 39.8%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
694votes
83.7% of the vote · D+69.8
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 605 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
717votes
55.5% of the vote · R+12.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 333 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Hillary Clinton2016
+67.8pts D vs U.S.
Place D+69.8 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2012 · +53.0 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+10.6pts R vs U.S.
Place R+12.1 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · −22.9 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Progreso · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Hidalgo County, Texas, the county containing Progreso — Progreso’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Progreso, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Progreso sits in Hidalgo County along the U.S.-Mexico border, where over 95% of residents are Hispanic and local election margins have consistently run above 70 points in recent cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.8 points in 2016 and a Republican high of 12.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 41.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 12.1 points.
A population of 4,998, a 0% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $45,924 describe the city.
In 2024, Progreso, Texas voted Republican by 12.1 points (R+12.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,291 votes cast, 561 went Democratic and 717 went Republican.
When did Progreso, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Progreso, Texas voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Progreso, Texas?
Progreso, Texas has a population of 4,998 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Progreso, Texas?
Median household income in Progreso, Texas is $45,924 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Progreso, Texas?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Progreso, Texas from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 1 went Republican.
